Key Note Presentation Fleet Mobility EXEX Estonia 10th January 2016 Todays Agenda Source Frost amp Sullivan Agenda Introduction Transformational Shifts Reshaping the Future of Mobility ID: 624018
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Slide1
The Future Market Environment of Mobility
Key Note PresentationFleet Mobility EXEX Estonia
10th January 2016Slide2
Today’s Agenda
Source: Frost &
Sullivan
Agenda
Introduction: Transformational Shifts Reshaping the Future of Mobility
Transformational Shifts Reshaping the Future of Mobility
Conclusions
Contact Us
IntroductionSlide3
Units (Million)
China
26
Japan
4.9
India
3.3Other4.0
South Korea 1.7
Russia 2.8
Others 1
Poland 0.4
Turkey 0.8
Mexico 1.4
Canada 1.8USA
18.6
Brazil 3.9
Argentina0.6
Others 3.2
France 2.3
Germany
3.5
Italy
1.8
Spain
1.3
UK
2.8
Indonesia
0.7
Other 1.1
~ 91 Million
Africa 1%
Asia
45%
Eastern Europe
4%
The Middle East 1%
NA 22
%
Others 5%
Latin America
5%
WE 16%
~
89
Million
2016
2-3%
YoY growth (
2015
–
16)
Russia 1.1
Iran
1.2
Egypt
0.3
Canada 1.8
Brazil 3.2
1
%
46%
4%
2%
22
%
5
%
5%
16%
Source: LMC Automotive, Frost & Sullivan
Global Light Vehicle Sales by Region in 2016—A
Snapshot
US to drive global sales reaching 17.5 ml. Chinese sales to remain flat in 2016Slide4
Transformational Shifts Reshaping the Future of MobilitySlide5
Top Transformational Shifts Expected to Shape the Future of Mobility
Connected
and Automated Mobility
Convergence in
Corporate Mobility
Automated Driving
Mobility IntegrationSlide6
Top Transformational Shifts Expected to Shape the Future of
Mobility
- Connected and Automated
Mobility
Connected
and Automated Mobility
Convergence in
Corporate Mobility
Automated Driving
Mobility IntegrationSlide7
Connected Home – 31%
Home Automation
Home Energy
Home Health
Home Entertainment
Connected Work –15%
Mobility - Mobile email, Unified Communication
Mobile Working
Enterprise Social Networking
Connected City – 54%
eGovernance
eCitizens
Personal and Freight Mobility
E-learning
Mobile banking
Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020
Future
Connected Living Ecosystem
The connected
life contains three important
environments, all with high expectations for “everywhere”
Source: Frost & SullivanSlide8
Connected Car Programs at OEMs are going through a Major Strategy ChangeSlide9
Understanding the typical automotive customer journey is crucial to developing products & services around the vehicle
Pre-Purchase
(OEM Centric)
Re - purchase
(OEM Centric)
Car as a Service
(
CaaS
)Slide10
Evolution of OEMs Mobility Services
Car companies are evolving from the business of manufacturing & selling just cars, to providing related services, and multi-modal mobility solutions to target new customers, and future proof their business
Evolution & Expansion of OEM Services
Car Independent
Car Ownership
Car Services
Integrated Mobility: Journey Planning, Booking & Payment
City Planners & Lifestyle
Energy creation & storage
Finance
Maintenance
Connected Services
Carsharing
Parking & Charging
Ride-sharing
Taxi & Limousine
Automated DrivingSlide11
Potential for explosive growth
Ultimately connected car programs need to be profit generators and customer loyalty improvement
programs which have large potential for growthSlide12
Top Transformational Shifts Expected to Shape the Future of
Mobility
- Mobility Integration
Connected
and Automated Mobility
Convergence in
Corporate Mobility
Automated Driving
Mobility IntegrationSlide13
Demand
Responsive
Transport
(Taxi, BRT)
Connected Living
(Including Car)
Intercity Public Transport
Car Rental & Leasing
Car Rental
Car Sharing and Pooling
Intracity
Public Transport
PHYD
Insurance
Dynamic
Parking
Concierge Services
Energy Management
Micro-mobility Solutions
Trains/Flights Integration
Apps, Journey Planning, Big Data
Tech Enabled
,
Door-to-Door
,
Multi-Modal Travel Bringing Convenience
,
Time
&
Cost Savings
Source: Frost &
SullivanSlide14
Mobility
Landscape – Many Actors, New Partnerships, New Models
Across Consumer and Business
environments customers are demanding intuitive services; many actors investing significantly to deliver the ‘killer’ proposition
& seamless user experienceSlide15
Intelligent Mobility—An Emerging Concept that Revolutionizes Mobility
Intelligent mobility aims to create vehicles that promote a eco-driving experience, insulated from crash fatalities and tuned to combat
congestion.
Connected & Automated Mobility
New Mobility ModelsSmart & Eco-driving
Car Sharing
Ride Sharing
Safety
Transportation
Environment
Current 2015
Future 2035
Siloistic Approach
Integrated Approach
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Slide16
Shared mobility
Fleet and leasing
Integrated fare management
Savings potential
Mobility planning apps
Road trains
Rapid shuttles
Self learning car
Smart access
Dedicated lane
Smart parking
Real-time traffic management
i
Framework
Current infrastructural framework and enablers need to be upgraded or purpose built to a higher plane of intelligence to serve the upcoming needs of intelligent mobility.
Mobility
Innovative and diverse mobility solutions that cater to a wide range of consumers’ mobility needs will exist cohesively, providing cost-effective and time-saving travel options for commuters.
Intelligent Mobility—A Multi-faceted Sustainable Solution
Several facets of today’s mobility solutions will face disruption and evolve to fit tomorrow’s intelligent mobility ecosystem, resulting in improved benefits and responsibilities for consumers.
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Slide17
Safety
Modes
Emission
Incident management >>
15–33
% reduction in crash prevention
Enhanced collision avoidance >>
10% reduction in crash prevention
Optimized
ride/car sharing
modalities
>>
Reduction in annual costs of
$5.6
billion
Group rapid transits and personal rapid transits >>
Reduce travel time by 25%
Increase average travel speed >>
10–15
% reduction in CO
2
emission
Traffic signal light optimization >>
Reduce
stops by 40%
Phase
I
Phase
II
Optimize travel
speeds >>
Increase
road speeds from
8–60%
Efficient driving modes >>
Reduce fuel consumption by 10%
Traffic flow optimization >>
Reduce
congestion by 12% to 30%
Impacts of Intelligent
Mobility
As a unified approach, intelligent mobility reduces traffic congestion by a fifth, carbon emission by a tenth, and optimizes travel speed up to 60%, depending on infrastructural intelligence.
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Slide18
Instant –
Short
Distance
Planned –
Long
Distance
Public Transport
“Fixed” Carpooling
Higher Price per KM
Lower Price per KM
“On Demand”
Carpooling
“Taxi” & Limousine
Services
“Transportation
Network
Companies”
Corporate
Carpooling?
Growth of Ride Sharing Business Models
Source: Frost & SullivanSlide19
2014
Traditional
49,368
2.5
million
P2P
81,380
1
million
Corporate
2,896
250 companies
2020
Traditional
236,145
14.9 million
P2P
222,210
3.3 million
Corporate
84,649
4,000 companies
Carpooling
Carsharing
New Business Models - Growth of Car Sharing
Over
543,000 vehicles to be
shared in Europe by 2020
Source: Frost & SullivanSlide20
Top Transformational Shifts Expected to Shape the Future of
Mobility
-
Convergence in Corporate
Mobility
Connected
and Automated Mobility
Convergence in
Corporate Mobility
Automated Driving
Mobility IntegrationSlide21
Total Cost of OWNERSHIP
Running Core Fleet & Keeping Company
Drivers Informed
Total Cost of USERSHIP
Managing Overall Fleet & Educating All
Company Drivers
Total Cost of MOBILITY
Delivering Integrated Services &
Empowering
All Employees
Future
of Corporate
Mobility – From
TCO to
TCM
Source: Frost & Sullivan
EXPENSE MANAGEMENT
FLEET MANAGEMTN
TRAVEL MANAGEMENT
MOBILITY MANAGEMENTSlide22
16%
Very interested In mobility allowance solution
38%
Somewhat Interested in mobility
allowance solution
17%
Neither/Nor
16%
Somewhat not interested in mobility
solution
10%
Not interested at all in mobility allowance
solution
Interest Towards Mobility Allowance
54% of the
sample
expressed interested
in a move to a “Mobility
Allowance”
As expected Belgium (62%) and Netherlands (59%) expressed greatest interest.
UK
(
N=76)
Germany
(
N=74)
Belgium
(
N=54)
Q10. Interest in mobility allowance solution? Base: those who have corporate car or cash allowance N=310
Netherlands
(
N=41)
France
(
N=65)Slide23
Mobility Integration Services
Services typically integrated by a Travel Management Company are the most preferred.
Payment options feature prominently; an any device strategy is integral to Future Mobility
Q31. Most preferred services in an integrated solution n=465Preferences were selected by respondents from a pre-defined list of services as opposed to a free format / free choice approach
* Covering payment of traditional fuel, energy and other services available from fuelling / charging stations e.g. cleaning / valeting
+ On-demand access to vehicles through services such as DriveNow, Car2Go, Zipcar
, etc.
Trip Planner
Parking Payment
Car Sharing
+
Membership
Navigation Service
Taxi Booking
Car
Rental
Cycle
Rental
‘Fuel’ Payment*
Train ticketing
Airport Lounge
Car Pooling
Hourly Office Rental
Taxi Payment
Most Preferred Services (top 5 ranking) -
Europe
38%
23%
Tube/Bus Ticketing
53%
22%
44%
29%
22%
17%
11%
23%
41%
22%
Hotel/Flight Booking
55%
16%
8%Slide24
Mobility Integration Services in Mobile Application
Journey Planning is the most desirable service so must be a priority component of an Integrated Mobility service
Q33. Interest on mobile applications for the new mobility solution. Base: Total n=465
Preferences were selected by respondents from a pre-defined list of services as opposed to a free format / free choice approach
Expenses Claiming
Navigation Service
Mobility
Reporting
Mobility Booking
Boarding Pass
Mobile Payment
Online Check-in
Real Time Information
Mobility Integration Service in Mobile
Application -
Europe
39%
23%
43%
41%
37%
32%
40%
15%
Journey Planning
49%Slide25
Car leasing companies
Car rental companies
Mobility specialist
Mobility Integration Future Service ProvidersLeasing
companies considered by decision-makers to be best placed to deliver Integrated Mobility services albeit picture is mixed confirming the fragmented nature of the market
Best Player to Provide New Solution-EuropeCar OEMs
Corporate travel agenciesTechnology Provider
Don’t KnowQ32 Best player to deliver integrated mobility solution service. Base : total n=465.
Top results highlighted in red
UK (n=106)
FR
(n=98)
DE (n=97)
NL
(n=78)
BE (n=86)
Car leasing companies
23%
18%
23%
38%
23%
Car rental companies
12%
21%
15%
15%
15%
Corporate Travel agencies
21%
20%
15%
1%
14%
Car OEMs
9%
12%
25%
12%
14%
Mobility specialist provider
14%
14%
9%
13%
15%
Technology provider
8%
3%
2%
3%
3%
Best Player to Provide New
Solution-
by countrySlide26
Top Transformational Shifts Expected to Shape the Future of
Mobility
-
Automated Driving
Connected
and Automated Mobility
Convergence in
Corporate Mobility
Automated Driving
Mobility IntegrationSlide27
Autonomous
Cars New Business Models
Four key areas impacted
by Fully-Autonomous Mobility
Vehicle
on-Demand
Peer-to-Peer
S
haring
Mobility as
a Utility
First &
Last mile Commuting
Fully-Autonomous
Mobility Opportunities
Source: Frost &
SullivanSlide28
Current Taxi Market
Parameter
Future Taxi Market
36
Average number of daily Trips per taxi
~50200
Average Daily Miles Covered by a Taxi~3507.1%Taxi
User Base (% of Population)15-20%22.39
Number of Taxis
per 1000 Daily commuters~18
$540 (2013)Driver cost per day$0 50,000Number of Drivers0
$6.31 (2013)
Average Fare per mile~$4
$29,700 (2014 Nissan NV200)Taxi Price$40000
Source:
NYC Taxi And Limousine Commission,
Frost & Sullivan
Note: Taxi user base in New York City was 600,000 passengers per day in 2014
Autonomous Vehicles
to revolutionize the e-Hailing Business
Model
– Case
Study – New York Yellow
Taxi
Automated Driving Business Models: Case Study – New York Yellow Taxi, NA, 2015Slide29
Present-day Motor Insurance Model in driver centric
* Vehicle owner pays premium to cover some excesses such as stray incidents like theft, fire and vandalism
Users
shareof liabilityManufacturers
Product Liability
>80%
<20%
Driver centric evaluation
With Increasing
A
utonomy, Insurance Liability
L
ikely to Shift to Software Algorithms
Future Motor Insurance Model
Or
Increased Comfort, Option To Take Manual Control.
3. System centric evaluation
Pods, personal vehicles,
group rapid transit
vehicles
2. Product
centric evaluation
Crash Prevention, Crash Worthiness, Algorithm.
1. Brand centric evaluation
Or
Source: Frost &
SullivanSlide30
Future to evolve to bundling of motor insurance with other
services:
Four possible scenarios of Motor insurance
Traditional Motor Insurance Model
Fully-automated Driving Traffic
Motor insurance built into extended warranty
Motor insurance bundled along with property insurance
Insurance risk split between manufacturer and other stakeholders
Motor insurance offered by vehicle manufacturers
1
2
3
4Slide31
The Car of the Future: Self Learning Cars
U
se of automated driving and connectivity to create a predictive environment that is safe and contextually relevant
Source: Frost &
Sullivan
Self Learning Car
Safety Mobility Fuel Economy
Naturalistic Automated Driving
NFC Vehicle
Personali-zation
Predictive
Calling
Predictive
Destination
Predictive
Connected
Services
Prognostic
Alerts
Automatic
ParkingSlide32
Ford
Daimler
Honda
Eddie StobartVos LogisticsSimon Loos
Uber
LyftGoogle
Low Profitability
High Profitability
High Volume Business
Low Volume Business
Asset Light Mobility Integrator
Asset Oriented Fleet Operator
Vehicle Manufacturer
With high volume of business and
relatively lower investment which helps connect demand and supply, mobility integrator is likely to reap higher profits.Owning and maintaining a fleet of vehicles requires moderate levels of investments affects profitability
Huge investments on infrastructure and machinery to manufacture different types of vehicles combined with decline in sales is likely to have adverse impact on profit margins
Business Implication of Future Mobility Models for
Key Stakeholders
Although each stakeholder can posses a strong core competence, expanding their radius of power to exercise more control on at least one other stakeholder can increase the probability of success.
Data Flow
Material Flow
Source: Frost & SullivanSlide33
ConclusionsSlide34
Disruptor
Data acquisition and processing capability held by disrupters gives them added advantage over traditional OEMs
Disrupters are likely to achieve comparable customer acceptance due to product success and the perceived quality
Mobility
integration
c
apability
leveraging connectivity
and data
User group acceptance potentialAbility to create / modify architecture for purpose-built vehicles
OEMs with extensive experience in manufacturing different types of automobiles are likely to have an edge over the disruptors
OEM
Intelligent Mobility—OEMs’ Competencies Compared with Disruptors
Coexistence of disrupter-led mobility models alongside traditional OEM-led business models would increase competitiveness thereby resulting in the evolution of new market differentiators among rivalling brands.
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Slide35
2025
2015: Stronghold in user interface domain
2025: Spearhead the service-driven industry
2015: Pure-play digital influencers
2025: Connected mobility enablers
2015: Expanding product portfolio
2025: Digital innovation blended with electronic controls
2015: Traditional power houses.
2025: Hardware providers in a service industry
2015
Low
High
Key segments influencing the market
Mobility Integrators
Connectivity Providers
Suppliers
OEMs
Mobility
Ecosystem
Will Remain
Hybrid Value Chain for Next 5 Years
Coexisting with the traditional ecosystem, a smartphone-like ecosystem may evolve in the automotive industry, which is strongly based on a user-interface oriented, service-driven business model.
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Slide36
Known
Unknown
Needs/Demands
Incremental
Radical
Innovation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Conventional automotive OEMs
Possibly use open patents available as a platform to reduce cost and time involved to re-invent the wheel.
Tech Invasion
– a Key Enabler and Motivator for Conventional OEMs
Tech companies innovate to offer a
products/services
that meets the unknown needs/demands of
consumers, creating white
space
opportunities
between the automotive and consumer electronics worldsSlide37
Thank You
Niranjan Thiyagarajan
Senior Consultant
Frost & Sullivan+44. 207. 915. 7818Niranjan.thiyagarajan@frost.com