0 1941: Accession of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi - PowerPoint Presentation

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1941: Accession of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi1950: Mohammed Mossadiq becomes Prime Minister1953: Shah overthrows Mossadiq in a coup d’etat1963: Beginning of the White Revolution1979: Iranian Revolution led by liberal nationalists and alienated clerics; US hostage crisis begins1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war1989: Ayatollah Khomeini dies/President Khamenei becomes Supreme Leader1989: Ali Rafsanjani becomes President1997: Mohammed Khatami becomes President in a surprise upset (70% of vote)1999: Large-scale pro-democracy protests2000: Liberals win the majority of seats in the majlis elections; hardliners crack down on the media and civil society2001: Khatami wins a 2nd term by a landslide2004: Conservatives win control of parliament after most liberal candidates are rejected by the Council of Guardians2005: Ahmadinejad wins presidency, beating centrist Rafsanjani2009: Ahmadinejad wins presidency in a contested election, beating independent reformist candidate Mousavi2009-2010: Widespread protests at perceived electoral corruption: Green revolution begins

Timeline of Iranian PoliticsSlide2

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Revolutionary forces in IranProtests were led by the ulema in 1963 under Khomeini and urban terrorist groups emergedShah became totally repressive after 1975; taking away autonomy of clerics and the bazaari merchantsEconomy was in turmoil with rampant inflation from excessive oil spendingOpposition spoke out and was led by the Freedom movement in Iran (liberal) and militant ulema (conservative-revolutionary)Militant ulema led by Ayatollah Khomeini pressed for rule by Islamic clericsA cycle of religious protests, police violence, mourning protests, police violence, became more and more pronounced in 1978The shah left for Egypt in exile in 1979, and the Freedom Movement and Khomeini were left to fight it out; Khomeini eventually wonRevolution in IranSlide3

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Anti-Americanism in IranSupport for the shahThe CIA coup; support for the Shah’s repressionThe hostage crisisFrom 1979 to 1981; Iranians held US diplomats after taking over the embassyCarter lost the election to Reagan; the hostages were released as a show of good will toward ReaganThe Iran-Contra scandalUS sold arms to its enemy Iran in the mid-1980s, to get help freeing American hostages held by the Lebanese HizbullahThe earnings were illegally diverted to a rebel movement in Nicaragua, the ContrasThe process of demonizationAnti-US rallies; US as the devil: “Death to America” becomes a popular sloganAmerica frames Iran as the center of the axis of evilSlide4

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Key characters in Iranian politicsAyatollah Ruhollah KhomeiniSupreme Leader Ali KhameiniFormer President RafsanjaniFormer President Khatami

Current President

Mahmoud

Ahmadinejad

Presidential Candidate

Mir-

Hossein

MousaviSlide5

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Iranian political institutionsDual nature of institutions: Secular and Religious parallelsResult of intense debates during the revolution about the constitutionSupreme leader (Faqih)Ultimate veto power over most everything; vacillates between using it and notHas strong appointment powers over the judiciary and the militaryLike Plato’s philosopher-king; life term; elected by the Assembly of ExpertsPresidentStrongest executive except for the faqihIndependently electedMajlisContested and reasonably powerful legislative bodyCouncil of GuardiansDesigned to keep any legislation from violating the shari’aAlso vets political candidates; appointed directly or indirectly by the supreme leaderHas vetoed every single reform law passed by the majlis in recent yearsExpediency CouncilDesigned to resolve conflicts between the Majlis and the Council of Guardians

In 2000, it

allowed

some

Majlis

legislation

to pass

over the Council, but is now very conservativeSlide6

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Elected and unelected institutions in IranThe process of vetting who can run for election is key to understanding how these institutions interact Slide7

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Liberalism vs. clericalism in IranPolitical divisionsPolitical parties were illegal for a long time; still act as informal blocsGroups of independent candidates (most of whom are clerics), who tend to ally with each otherCombatant clericsCare deeply about maintaining political power; actively defend the Supreme LeaderAre conservative on key social and religious issuesMilitant clerics“Leftist” splinter from the combatant clerics; held considerable power in the government in the late 1980sHave argued for more power to the majlisWere shut out of government in the early 1990s, but did well in the 1997 elections supporting KhatamiServants of ConstructionNon-clerical group of technocrats formed in the mid-1990sFit somewhere between the two groups; supporters of the former President RafsanjaniSupported Khatami in the 1997 electionsSlide8

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2008 Iranian legislative election resultsSince Khatami, the majlis has seen a big shift towards the conservatives, in large part due to active vetting Conservatives 67%Reformists 18%Independents 13%Religious Minorities 2%Slide9

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The potential for political reform in IranIran’s underlying liberal cultureMany Iranians resent strict control of the public sphereOfficial ideology vs. public preferencesChallenges to the Iranian regimeDisillusionment of reformers after Khatami’s presidencyReasons for Ahmadinejad’s political success: populism, economic redistributionCentralization of power in the Council of Guardians and Revolutionary GuardMost Iranians no longer remember the ShahFragmentation of elites over the direction of the revolution The 2009 electionsAhmadinejad faced a credible challenge in a new revolutionary reformer: MousaviAhmadinejad officially won the election by 2/3 of the vote, but there was some fraudMobilization as part of the “Green Revolution”

Mousavi

leads supporters in a campaign of popular protest: “where is my vote?”

Hundreds of thousands join in peaceful protests across Iran

Repression triggers further protests

Costs of mobilization become too high and the protests slow downSlide10

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Images from the Green Revolution