We have a long history of it in fact Who the hell wants to hear actors talk HARRY WARNER 1925 One of the Warner Brothers I think there is a world market for maybe five computers ID: 1029246
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1. SCENARIO PLANNING
2. IT’S EASY TO GET THE FUTURE WRONGWe have a long history of it, in fact.
3. “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”HARRY WARNER 1925One of the Warner Brothers
4. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”THOMAS WATSON 1943Chairman of IBM
5. 5th AvenueNew York City1900WHERE IS THE CAR?2016 Tony Seba
6. 5th AvenueNew York City1900WHERE IS THE CAR?2016 Tony Seba
7. 5th AvenueNew York City1913WHERE IS THE HORSE?2016 Tony Seba
8. 5th AvenueNew York City1913WHERE IS THE HORSE?2016 Tony Seba
9. TECHNOLOGYYears until technology was used by one-quarter of AmericansELECTRICITY46 yearsTELEPHONE35 yearsRADIO31 yearsPC16 yearsTELEVISION26 yearsWHAT’S NEXT?faster adoptionMOBILE PHONE13 yearsWORLD WIDE WEB7 years1873187618971926197519831991
10. POINT FORECASTPlanning for a short term point in time.Future Scenario 1FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNINGLooking out decades and letting the future drive the planning.A shift from prediction to preparationPLANNING HORIZONFuture Scenario 2Future Scenario 3TODAY
11. Identify Focal Issue Analysis of Key Trends and Critical Factors Identify Driving Forces / Critical Uncertainties Rank Driving Forces / Select Scenario Logic Importance vs. Uncertainty Predetermined vs. Uncertain Flesh Out Scenarios Apply the Scenarios and Uncover Implications Identify Leading Indicators and Signposts*from Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volumes 1 & 6General Approach: Scenario Planning
12. Foresight Enhanced Analysis of Driving ForcesMOMENTUMGLOBAL CHAOSTECH TRIUMPHGENTLE FOOTPRINTEconomyTechnologyPoliticsSocietyEnvironment
13. Global MarketplaceOne World OrderMillions of MarketsNaftástique!Foresight SeriesStrategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure InvestmentOne World OrderMillions of MarketsNaftástique!Global MarketplaceResource AvailabilityGlobal Trade
14. Foresight SeriesStrategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment
15. PlausibleInternally ConsistentChallenging DifferentiatedMemorableWhat makes a good scenario?
16. Signposts and Indicators :2010 statistics and 2050 projections in Boston metro by scenario
17. 1973 – Not proactive, but emotionally prepared Grew from smallest of major seven oil companies to the most profitable Royal Dutch/Shell
18. IT’S YOUR TURNWhat are the facts and trends that you consider most important for the Commission to be aware of and consider? In thinking about the breadth of Massachusetts, what are the important issues or considerations for our cities, suburbs, and rural communities?It’s 2040. Choose one (or more if you want). Describe how you (or your children?) get to work? How do you receive a package from California? A recent interesting travel experience.123