System Modeling Workgroup Kick-Off - PowerPoint Presentation

1. System Modeling Workgroup Kick-Off

2. AgendaIntroductions ​System Modeling Goals and PurposeSystem Modeling Process OverviewWorkgroup Roles and Expectations

3. IntroductionsYour name and pronounsYour role/title & organization Ice-breaker question…

4. System Modeling Goals and Purpose4

5. System ModelingA structured, data-informed process to develop estimates of the size and needs of a population of people experiencing homelessness and assumptions about the types and amounts of assistance (housing, shelter, services) that would effectively and equitably meet those needs.

6. Develop a shared vision of the optimal system to address the needs of homeless population Model the services and inventory needed to equitably address homelessnessCreate a transition plan to right-size the systemGuide strategic funding and policy decisions for existing and new federal, state, and local fundsGoals

7. Pizza Activity

8. Context Setting: The Pizza OrderYou are in charge of ordering pizza for an event. How many people do you need to feed?What is your pizza order?How much is the bill?MenuPizza comes in one size and serves 2-3 adultsCheese Pizza$10Pepperoni Pizza$12Vegetable Lovers Pizza (bell peppers, mushrooms, roasted garlic)$13Meat Lovers Pizza (peperoni, sausage, bacon)$15Hawaiian Pizza (pineapple and ham)$14Large Salad$8Gluten-free crust+$3 for each pizzaVegan cashew cheez sauce+$2 for each pizza

9. Discussion: What did you decide to order and why?

10. OK… but it’s not just about pizza, right?Why did we just spend time talking about ordering pizza for a party?What does this have to do with system modeling for a homeless response system?

11. How does this analogy apply to homeless system response planning?Questions to ask when placing a pizza orderQuestions to ask when planning a homelessness response systemHow many people do we need to feed?How many people need housing assistance?Does anyone have any dietary restrictions or preferences that will inform what they can eat? What specific needs must our system address? Will people for whom we have designed specific programs use those programs, or will they choose other programs or resources? Are we making assumptions based solely on our own experience or are we asking diners about their needs and preferences? Have we collaborated with people with lived experience to understand what they would and wouldn’t choose, want, and need?What types of pizza should we order? How much?What types of assistance (services, project types) does my system need to end homelessness? How much of each type do we need?

12. Additional Questions to Inform Your PlanQuestions to ask when placing a pizza orderQuestions to ask when planning a homelessness response systemWill people have eaten before arriving?What intensity of services, or length of assistance, will any given person want, need, and use?How much will the ideal pizza order cost? How much will it cost to fund your ideal and most robust homelessness response system? Will or could this be a potluck where people will bring things to eat to complement my pizza order?What mainstream services are available to complement the homeless system’s resources?Will people bring friends with them to the party? Will people who didn’t RSVP attend?Are my assumptions about inflow, or how many people will come into contact with my system, correct?Have we hosted this event before? What did we order and how did it go? Do we think there will be more or less people than last time?What data do we have that can help inform our assumptions?

13. System Modeling Process Overview13

14. Inputs and AssumptionsHow many people experience homelessness each year?What portion of the population needs each thing?What types of interventions do they need?How long do they need the interventions? How much will this set of interventions cost to serve everyone experiencing homelessness?$

15. System Modeling Key Steps System ModelInventory recommendationsPerformance benchmarksCost projectionsHouseholds How many households will be in the system each year? How many will be homeless for the first time? How many are long-term homeless?PathwaysIdentify combinations of project types that households will use to resolve their crisis and find and maintain housing.Project TypesDefine the set of project types needed in an ideal system – including current project types and new types.

16. Describes the elements in an effective, efficient crisis or housing intervention to ensure immediate safety and rapid exit to permanent housing as appropriate to the needs of the individual or family experiencing homelessness.Project TypeDescriptionTimeframePopulationEmergency ShelterEmergency shelter with navigationservices (low-barrier, service-rich,housing-focused)3 months People who need a safe place to stay while looking for housing Rapid RehousingTime-limited rental subsidy and support services with the intention of the HH taking over the lease12 months People who can increase income to afford rentPermanent Supportive Housing Permanent subsidies based on income and services to keep tenants stable in housingNon-time-limitedPeople with disabilities who need servicesDedicated Affordable HousingAffordable housing resources (subsidies or units) dedicated to households experiencing homelessness  Non-time-limitedPeople with extremely low income who can’t increase, low /no services needsDevelop Project TypesSystem ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject Types

17. Define Pathways System ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject TypesWhat is a pathway?A combination of projects that a household needs to access and utilize in order to resolve their homelessnessHow should we think about pathways?Define the common pathwaysEstimate the percentage of households who will utilize each pathwayEstimate the amount of time households will utilize each step in the pathway

18. Using a System Map to Develop Pathways

19. Using Cohorts to Develop PathwaysA cohort is a group of households with similar characteristics, resources and housing and service needs.Cohort%Project TypesEmergency ShelterRapid Re-housingDedicated AffordablePeople experiencing first-time homeless with resources/ supports to self-resolve20%1 monthHouseholds who have potential to increase income within a year or two enough to pay market rate rent.40%3 months12 monthsHouseholds unable to increase income sufficiently to afford housing (e.g. working families, older adults on fixed income) with that have a temporary place to stay10%5 yearsHouseholds unable to increase income sufficiently to afford housing that need a safe place to stay while seeking PH30%3 months5 years

20. Estimate Number of HouseholdsSystem ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject TypesEstimate the annual number of people experiencing homelessness, including people experiencing long-term homelessness and people entering the homeless system each year.

21. Using Stella Modeling (Stella M)21

22. What you needWhat does Stella M do for CoCs?22Project TypesPathwaysHouseholdsUnit CostWhat you getInventory recommendationsPerformance benchmarksCost projectionsMulti-year transition planningStella MStella Modeling (Stella M)System ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject Types

23. System ModelExample – 10 people enter shelter each month20% need shelter only for 2 weeks 1 bed10% go to TH after 1 month in shelter 1 bed50% go to RRH after 1 month in shelter 5 beds20% go to PSH after 2 months in shelter 4 beds 11 beds These 11 shelter beds can serve 120 people in a year.System ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject Types

24. System ModelSystem ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject Types

25. System ModelSystem ModelHouseholdsPathwaysProject Types

26. Workgroup Roles and Expectations26

27. Roles and Responsibilities

28. Work Group ExpectationsConsistent involvement in workgroup meetingsOpen to envisioning an optimal system that is different than the current systemReport on workgroup progress to peers and leadership within organizations you representGather relevant information between meetings to share with workgroupAssume good intentions of fellow workgroup members but own the impact of your words and actions

29. Workgroup ScheduleDateTopicOnboarding (you are here!)Core values discussion & initial project type developmentFinalize project type list, begin pathway developmentListening session with key partners & lived experience advisory boardFinalize pathway developmentReview and discuss households' data and assumptions & preliminary model resultsPresentation and feedback with leadership group, key partners, and lived experience advisory boardDiscuss feedback and finalize model

30. Questions