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Evaluating the Evaluation Evaluating the Evaluation

Evaluating the Evaluation - PowerPoint Presentation

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Evaluating the Evaluation - PPT Presentation

Bank Evaluation Programs Doug Potts MAI VP Commerce Bank A Few Questions TrueFalse Most loan transactions require appraisals TrueFalse Evaluations are killing the appraisal profession ID: 710255

evaluation amp property data amp evaluation data property eval appraisal vendor cost loan information reg analysis collateral inspection risk

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Slide1
Slide2

Evaluating the EvaluationBank Evaluation Programs

Doug Potts, MAI, VP

Commerce BankSlide3

A Few Questions

True/False?

Most loan transactions require appraisals.

True/False?

Evaluations are killing the appraisal profession.

True/False?

Reg

B will eventually create more business for appraisers.

True/False?

Reg

B will - in time - increase available consumer credit.Slide4

A Primer on Bank Lending

Major Purposes

New Loans (new collateral)

Subsequent Transactions (existing collateral)

Problem Loan Management (“exiting” collateral)

Major Loan Categories

Consumer purpose lending (GSE / HELOC)

Commercial business lending (C & I)

Commercial investment lending (CRE)

Unclassified lending – the “junk drawer”Slide5

Bank Portfolios--Risks & Rewards

Where does most of a bank’s workload sit?

Do renewals generate new $ for added cost?

New loans generate growth in profits

80/20 rule with a vengeance

Loan profitability sits in the 20%

But the workload sits in the 80%

Renewed loans generate $0 added profit

But comprises the bulk of a bank portfolioSlide6

72% of

profit

2

% of

profit

50% of volume

1

0% of volumeSlide7

3

Evals

for 1 AppraisalSlide8

The Point Is ….When you combine the 80/20 rule with the $0 profit rule ……

You need a cost-effective solution to meet

Underwriting need

Regulatory requirements

The key is “adequacy”Slide9

The Purpose of Evaluations

Regulations require every loan get a value

Only some deals require an appraisal.

But they also provide for cost effectiveness

Spread thin but broadly

Load balance tool

Balance risk & reward

Risk sensitized

For loan size (e.g. <$250M de

minimis)

For repayment reliance (CRE v C&I v Consumer)For portfolio concentration & workload (new v renewal)Slide10

Program Basics

External Vendor Procured

Proliferating Options

Growing array of vendors

Growing array of evaluation styles & products

Coverage & Fulfillment

Internally Developed

Licensed or Unlicensed Team Members

Qualifications & Training

Data Sourcing & Inspections

QA / QC ControlsSlide11

Evaluation – Scope of Work

Interagency Appraisal & Evaluation Guidelines

Flexibility v rigidness

When & where to use

Defining the problem

Creating the solution

What will your regulator permit?Slide12

2010 IAG Requirements

Should contain sufficient information

Details analysis, assumptions, conclusions

Should be documented in the credit file or reproducible.

Identify the location of the property.

Provide a description of the property and its current and projected use.

Provide an estimate of the property’s market value in its actual physical condition, use and zoning designation as of the effective date of the evaluation (that is, the date that the analysis was completed), with any limiting conditions.

Describe the method(s) the institution used to confirm the property’s actual physical condition and the extent to which an inspection was performed. Slide13

2010 IAG Requirements #2

Describe the analysis that was performed and the supporting information that was used in valuing the property.

Describe the supplemental information that was considered when using an analytical method or technological tool.

Indicate all source(s) of information used in the analysis, as applicable, to value the property, including:

External data sources (such as market sales databases and public tax and land records);

Property-specific data (such as previous sales data for the subject property, tax assessment data, and comparable sales information);

Evidence of a property inspection;

Photos of the property;

Description of the neighborhood; or

Local market conditions. Slide14

2010 IAG Requirements #3

Include information on the preparer when an evaluation is performed by a person, such as the name and contact information, and signature (electronic or other legally permissible signature) of the preparer. Slide15

Let’s Re-Arrange the IAG Ideas

Evaluations have 5 major elements

Define the problem to be solved

Get needed research elements

Make needed inspections as appropriate

Selecting the right data

Doing the math & calculationsSlide16

Evaluation Scope -

Defining the Problem

Research

& Descriptions

Inspection & Descriptions

Selecting

Appriorate

Data

Calculating an

AnswerSlide17

Eval Content - Preliminaries

Defining the Problem

Complexity

Effective date(s) – what is this?

Limiting conditions

Can the premise be prospective?

Can the zoning be prospective?

Basic research & descriptions -

Property specific records

Neighborhood & market trends

Current & projected useCurrent zoning designationSlide18

Eval Content – Inspection Elements

Methods to confirm physical condition

Describe extent of inspection

Evidence of inspection

Descriptions inspection details - granularity

Property photosSlide19

More on Inspections

“Methods to confirm physical condition”

“Describe extent of inspection”

What about?

Out of territory property

Borrower or lender representation?

Shelf life of the representation/inspection?

Origination v Renewal?

Flexible standard?

Credit Quality? Pass v non-pass?Slide20

Eval Content –Selecting Data

“As applicable” data

External sales databases etc.

Local market conditions

Comparable salesSlide21

Eval Content – Calculate an Answer

Provide value in actual physical condition

Is that the only condition allowed?

Describe analysis performed

Describe supporting information

Data

sourcing

& selection

What valuation technique? What methods?

Analytical method or technological tool

Analysis performed & supporting informationSupplemental informationSlide22

Eval Content - Fingerprints

“When performed by a person”

Name / contact info

Actual signature

Electronic signature

Is the evaluator qualified?

What about state restrictions?Slide23

Evaluation Scope -Slide24

LimitationsShelf life of evaluations

Tailoring for loan-specific issues

LTV adequacy

Lease structures

Environmental impacts & offsets

As-is value v prospective valueSlide25

Evaluation Options & Risk

What program to develop and use?

“You get to pick your problems, you don’t get to pick no problems….”

Internal Program

External Vendor Program

Appraisal Only – “no evaluations”

Hybrid?

What about BPO?Slide26

The Nexus -- Risk v Regulation

Triangulating competing elements

Accuracy

Adequacy

Efficiency

Cost effectiveness

Does an evaluation need to be accurate?

Is accuracy always cost effective?

Is precision always necessary?

What about low LTV transactions?

Using a shotgun to shoot a fly…Slide27

External v Internal Eval Programs

Consider the business model --

Collateral class – conventional v oddball

Market coverage – urban v tract suburb v rural

External Model

Consistency & uniform product – predictable

Within its limits – highly reliable system

Fulfillment failure risk

Internal Model

Flexibility & adaptability

Precision subordinated to practicality of businessDisclosure RisksSlide28

External ProductsAppraiser-centric or broker-centric

Available options

How to compare them?

How to review them?

Fulfillment issues

E & O dynamicsSlide29

Vendor ListProduct type – residential v commercial

Geographic coverage

National

Urban coverage

Rural coverage

Appraiser- v broker-centric

Branch from national appraisal firm

Local vendor based approachSlide30

Some Options

Name

Type

Coverage

Best

Concentration

Performed

by

Boxwood

Comml

NatlUrban/SuburbAppraiserMountainseedCommlNatlUrban/SuburbAppraiserClear CapitalComml & Res

NatlUrb/Sub/RuralBrokerCollateral AnalyticsRes 1-4NatlUrban/SuburbAVMCorelogicComml & ResNatl

Urb

/Sub/Rural

Appr

Brkr

AVM

DataQuick

Res

1-4

Natl

Urban/Suburb

Appr

Brkr

AVM

First American

Comml

& Res

Natl

Urban/Suburb

Appr

Brkr

AVM

Inside Valuation

Comml

& ResNatlUrban/SuburbBrokerProTeckRes 1-4NatlUrb/Sub/RuralAppr Brkr AVM

ValligentRes 1-4

NatlUrban/SuburbApprValueNetRes 1-4NatlUrban/SuburbAppr AVMVerosRes 1-4NatlAVMSlide31

Comparison MethodsSlide32

Evaluation Review Needs

General v specific

Checklist only?

Part of the purpose is speed/efficiency

Drags on velocity

Secondary data confirmations

Secondary corroborating data

Secondary inspections Slide33

Evaluation Review Questions

Adequately

identifies the collateral property (e.g. legal description, tax number, street address, etc

.)?

Adequately describes the collateral’s current and (if applicable) projected use

?

Provides an estimate of the collateral’s market value in “As is” condition & use & (if applicable) zoning as of the effective date of the Alternate Valuation

?

Indicates all source(s) used in the analysis, as applicable, to value the property (e.g. external data sources, property specific data, photos, neighborhood description, description of local market conditions

)?

Describes the analysis that was performed and the supporting information that was used in valuing the property?Evidence of a sufficient property inspection (e.g. photographs, comments)?Includes all other relevant information (described as needed in Comments below)?Report includes preparer name and signature?Slide34

A Primitive ExampleSlide35

Here’s an Interesting Wrinkle

This review intends to fulfill Regulation B requirements for Residential 1- to 4-unit dwellings. Transactions secured by 1- to 4-unit dwellings that qualify for an

evalution

by law may be valued for

xxxx

by

outside providers. The valuation document under review may be labeled “Appraisal;” but because of its limited content,

it is reviewed under

“evaluation” content standards outlined in the Interagency Appraisal & Evaluation Guidelines (effective Dec-2010).Slide36

Vendor Management

Fulfilling possibilities

List of serviced counties

How many active vendors

How many jobs by county last year

Avg fee by county

How many fulfillment failures by county

Contracts – NDAs - Processing

The follow-up process

What changes can be incorporated to improve?

Portals & ownershipSlide37

To AMC or Not to AMC

Geographic coverage

Panel control

Customary & Reasonable Fees

Waterfall process - upgrades

Portals

Invoicing

Compliance challenges

Would it just be cheaper to bring it in house?Slide38

Automated Valuation Modeling

Products & Options

Hit Rates

Confidence Intervals & FSD

AVM Cascades & Selection Tables

Program Benefits

Speed –

returns in moments

Cost effective – even in a cascade/waterfallSlide39

AVM Validation - Challenges

Regulatory compliance – modelling policy

Sample spread

Sample size

Sample cost

Sample frequency

Validations methods applied to each event

Who owns the validation process?Slide40

Trends in Vendor MgmtFed management requirements are heavy

And getting heavier

Escalating compliance costs

Many banks are considering moving to in-house programs

More product control

Compliance is no worse than vendor management

Cost is ≤ to vendor managementSlide41

Internal Evaluation Risks

Adequacy of Facts

Sufficient documentation

Potential inaccuracies

Adequacy of Opinions

Recognize all needed elements?

Disregard elements?

Value precision?

Does adequate alone = misleading?

Misleading to

whom?Potential inaccuracies acceptable – big pictureRisk is internal business decisionSlide42

Disclosure Risks

Does it matter if an opinion is not disclosed?

Can a consumer recognize the difference between an evaluation and appraisal?

Consumer wounded ego.

What about credit denial?

Consumer uses a disclosed

eval

in unintended ways

Eval

walks to another bank – portabilityDivorce litigation or tax appealPrice representations & negotiationsPersonal financial statementEstate planning or donationSlide43

What About Fed/State Compliance

The enforcement referral

The court subpoena

The patchwork quilt of state regulators

Mandatory v non-mandatory states

Scope of practice Issues

State enforcement risk to an internal program

Built-in exemptions

Fed requirements for qualified evaluators

What about AI Ethics/Standards?Slide44

Comparing possible programs

Outside vendor appraisal

Appraisal-centric

eval

Internal team

eval

– non licensed

Internal team

eval

–licensedSlide45
Slide46
Slide47

Can BPOs Help?

Shifting risks from in-house to …..

Out-house?

The importance of broker/agent skill

Local knowledge & customary thinking

Can BPOs function as in-lieu evaluations?

The IAG restriction?

Work

arounds

?State brokers regulatory prohibitionsNAR lobbying in the StatesSlide48

What is NAR Up To?

Challenges from Zillow’s sometimes misleading

zestimates

RealtyAlliance

v Local MLSs

The RET server:

Who owns the MLS data? What level of access?

RPR – the NAR AVM – 600 MLS servers feed it.

Not making money. Trying to grow

New NAR rules allow broker developed AVMs in all marketsIssuing rules to keep MLS data from being proprietary by local MLS systemsNAR pursuing inroads to allow brokers to prepare evaluations for financial institutions without a potential listing.Slide49

What are Peers Doing? from CARTSlide50

Dodd Frank & Reg B / ECOA

Key New Definitions

Borrower

Transaction

Collateral – what is a dwelling?

Notification v disclosure

Consumer purpose or

Secured by 1-4 Unit Dwelling

The Dwelling Trump Card

Mission creep from law to rule-makingSlide51

Reg B Notice & Disclosure

LOAN PURPOSE v collateral class problem

COLLATERAL CLASS

 

Loan Purpose

Consumer

Business

Reg

B Mandated

1-4u dwelling

Notice & Disclosure

No Notice

& Disclosure

Reg

B Exempt

Everything else

Notice / No disclosure

No Notice / No disclosureSlide52

Is This a Dwelling?Slide53

Reg B Impacts Community Banks

Increases financing & liability risk

Forces disclosure of potentially inaccurate but otherwise adequate analysis

Requires deal restructure – financing unsecured to avoid documentation of value

Potentially inaccurate but otherwise adequate can be misconstrued or misused by borrower

Alternative is to order more vendor product to deflect risk

Limits credit access to community borrowers

Inflexible rules don’t sync with the physical collateral world

Added cost of vendor product

Added delay of vendor productSlide54

Reg B Impacts Consumers

Increases confusion

Blurs distinctions from consumer to biz deals

Treats all “valuations” equally for disclosure

Increases cost

Vendor products more costly than internal products

Prioritizes precision over adequacy

Increases delay

Vendor products take additional time

Risk of fulfillment failureSlide55

Homebuilder Impacts

Reg

B intended to give each of thousands of individual consumers an individual appraisal.

but instead ….

Reg

B requires a handful of homebuilders to receive thousands of appraisalsSlide56

Hybrid Product – the BPO Eval

Can it “shift the risk” ?

How to qualify the valuation elements?

Opine price or value -- both?

IAG limitations

Review based qualification of BPO opinion?

Separate opinion using BPO elements only?

Convert into bank-issued estimate of value

Who inks it?

Qualification v state compliance riskWiggle words - disclaimers

E & O need?Slide57
Slide58

Appraisers Re-enter the Eval Space

USPAP & state restrictions

Economics

E & O coverageSlide59

Techtonic Shifts

AI Standards v USPAP

FRTs v RET? Where do evaluations

fit?

Should we cage USPAP into FRT only?

HR 5148 (

Leutkemeyer

TILA High Risk Mortgage Bill)

Federal pre-emption – supremacy clauseSee Gibbons v Ogden 22 US 1 (1824)See Gade v National Solid Wastes Mgmt Assoc 505 US 88.98 (1992)See Florida Lime v Avocado Growers Inc

v Paul 373 US 132, 142-43 (1962)Slide60

The Pre-Flight Evaluation

The good-housekeeping seal of approval

Post-eval changes to loan

Impact on eval reliability

Ordering a subsequent appraisal

Valuation priority of placeSlide61

Foreclosure EvaluationsWhat is allowed – de

minimis

rules.

Risks v benefits of use

Can you manage the inspection?

How to manage accounting needs

Fair Value

Liquidation / Distress Value

Pre-foreclosure requirements

Post-foreclosure surprisesSlide62

The Forensic EvaluationMultiple evaluations over time

Same asset

Allows a measure of market change

Retrospective analysis to test an appraisal

Showing editorial selection process

What comps were uncovered but not usedSlide63

Evaluation in Portfolio Monitoring

The Nexus of Accuracy v Adequacy

Existing collateral & the subsequent transaction

Transaction cost v flat profitability shift

Floor values on file as adequacy filter

Against current balance? Increasing balance?

Declining value? Physical deterioration?

Methods?

Owner occupied class

Investment class

Special casesSlide64

Our Friend IRVSlide65

LOAN BALANCE

7.9% R

O

7.0% R

OSlide66

IRV ExampleSlide67
Slide68

Trend Tech SpecsSlide69

Gas Station ValidationSlide70

Gas Station PerformanceSlide71

Multiplier TrendingSlide72

ExperiencesHow is Reg B working for you?

How are evaluations working for you?Slide73

Thanks for Attending!