Bank Evaluation Programs Doug Potts MAI VP Commerce Bank A Few Questions TrueFalse Most loan transactions require appraisals TrueFalse Evaluations are killing the appraisal profession ID: 710255
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Evaluating the EvaluationBank Evaluation Programs
Doug Potts, MAI, VP
Commerce BankSlide3
A Few Questions
True/False?
Most loan transactions require appraisals.
True/False?
Evaluations are killing the appraisal profession.
True/False?
Reg
B will eventually create more business for appraisers.
True/False?
Reg
B will - in time - increase available consumer credit.Slide4
A Primer on Bank Lending
Major Purposes
New Loans (new collateral)
Subsequent Transactions (existing collateral)
Problem Loan Management (“exiting” collateral)
Major Loan Categories
Consumer purpose lending (GSE / HELOC)
Commercial business lending (C & I)
Commercial investment lending (CRE)
Unclassified lending – the “junk drawer”Slide5
Bank Portfolios--Risks & Rewards
Where does most of a bank’s workload sit?
Do renewals generate new $ for added cost?
New loans generate growth in profits
80/20 rule with a vengeance
Loan profitability sits in the 20%
But the workload sits in the 80%
Renewed loans generate $0 added profit
But comprises the bulk of a bank portfolioSlide6
72% of
profit
2
% of
profit
50% of volume
1
0% of volumeSlide7
3
Evals
for 1 AppraisalSlide8
The Point Is ….When you combine the 80/20 rule with the $0 profit rule ……
You need a cost-effective solution to meet
Underwriting need
Regulatory requirements
The key is “adequacy”Slide9
The Purpose of Evaluations
Regulations require every loan get a value
Only some deals require an appraisal.
But they also provide for cost effectiveness
Spread thin but broadly
Load balance tool
Balance risk & reward
Risk sensitized
For loan size (e.g. <$250M de
minimis)
For repayment reliance (CRE v C&I v Consumer)For portfolio concentration & workload (new v renewal)Slide10
Program Basics
External Vendor Procured
Proliferating Options
Growing array of vendors
Growing array of evaluation styles & products
Coverage & Fulfillment
Internally Developed
Licensed or Unlicensed Team Members
Qualifications & Training
Data Sourcing & Inspections
QA / QC ControlsSlide11
Evaluation – Scope of Work
Interagency Appraisal & Evaluation Guidelines
Flexibility v rigidness
When & where to use
Defining the problem
Creating the solution
What will your regulator permit?Slide12
2010 IAG Requirements
Should contain sufficient information
Details analysis, assumptions, conclusions
Should be documented in the credit file or reproducible.
Identify the location of the property.
Provide a description of the property and its current and projected use.
Provide an estimate of the property’s market value in its actual physical condition, use and zoning designation as of the effective date of the evaluation (that is, the date that the analysis was completed), with any limiting conditions.
Describe the method(s) the institution used to confirm the property’s actual physical condition and the extent to which an inspection was performed. Slide13
2010 IAG Requirements #2
Describe the analysis that was performed and the supporting information that was used in valuing the property.
Describe the supplemental information that was considered when using an analytical method or technological tool.
Indicate all source(s) of information used in the analysis, as applicable, to value the property, including:
External data sources (such as market sales databases and public tax and land records);
Property-specific data (such as previous sales data for the subject property, tax assessment data, and comparable sales information);
Evidence of a property inspection;
Photos of the property;
Description of the neighborhood; or
Local market conditions. Slide14
2010 IAG Requirements #3
Include information on the preparer when an evaluation is performed by a person, such as the name and contact information, and signature (electronic or other legally permissible signature) of the preparer. Slide15
Let’s Re-Arrange the IAG Ideas
Evaluations have 5 major elements
Define the problem to be solved
Get needed research elements
Make needed inspections as appropriate
Selecting the right data
Doing the math & calculationsSlide16
Evaluation Scope -
Defining the Problem
Research
& Descriptions
Inspection & Descriptions
Selecting
Appriorate
Data
Calculating an
AnswerSlide17
Eval Content - Preliminaries
Defining the Problem
Complexity
Effective date(s) – what is this?
Limiting conditions
Can the premise be prospective?
Can the zoning be prospective?
Basic research & descriptions -
Property specific records
Neighborhood & market trends
Current & projected useCurrent zoning designationSlide18
Eval Content – Inspection Elements
Methods to confirm physical condition
Describe extent of inspection
Evidence of inspection
Descriptions inspection details - granularity
Property photosSlide19
More on Inspections
“Methods to confirm physical condition”
“Describe extent of inspection”
What about?
Out of territory property
Borrower or lender representation?
Shelf life of the representation/inspection?
Origination v Renewal?
Flexible standard?
Credit Quality? Pass v non-pass?Slide20
Eval Content –Selecting Data
“As applicable” data
External sales databases etc.
Local market conditions
Comparable salesSlide21
Eval Content – Calculate an Answer
Provide value in actual physical condition
Is that the only condition allowed?
Describe analysis performed
Describe supporting information
Data
sourcing
& selection
What valuation technique? What methods?
Analytical method or technological tool
Analysis performed & supporting informationSupplemental informationSlide22
Eval Content - Fingerprints
“When performed by a person”
Name / contact info
Actual signature
Electronic signature
Is the evaluator qualified?
What about state restrictions?Slide23
Evaluation Scope -Slide24
LimitationsShelf life of evaluations
Tailoring for loan-specific issues
LTV adequacy
Lease structures
Environmental impacts & offsets
As-is value v prospective valueSlide25
Evaluation Options & Risk
What program to develop and use?
“You get to pick your problems, you don’t get to pick no problems….”
Internal Program
External Vendor Program
Appraisal Only – “no evaluations”
Hybrid?
What about BPO?Slide26
The Nexus -- Risk v Regulation
Triangulating competing elements
Accuracy
Adequacy
Efficiency
Cost effectiveness
Does an evaluation need to be accurate?
Is accuracy always cost effective?
Is precision always necessary?
What about low LTV transactions?
Using a shotgun to shoot a fly…Slide27
External v Internal Eval Programs
Consider the business model --
Collateral class – conventional v oddball
Market coverage – urban v tract suburb v rural
External Model
Consistency & uniform product – predictable
Within its limits – highly reliable system
Fulfillment failure risk
Internal Model
Flexibility & adaptability
Precision subordinated to practicality of businessDisclosure RisksSlide28
External ProductsAppraiser-centric or broker-centric
Available options
How to compare them?
How to review them?
Fulfillment issues
E & O dynamicsSlide29
Vendor ListProduct type – residential v commercial
Geographic coverage
National
Urban coverage
Rural coverage
Appraiser- v broker-centric
Branch from national appraisal firm
Local vendor based approachSlide30
Some Options
Name
Type
Coverage
Best
Concentration
Performed
by
Boxwood
Comml
NatlUrban/SuburbAppraiserMountainseedCommlNatlUrban/SuburbAppraiserClear CapitalComml & Res
NatlUrb/Sub/RuralBrokerCollateral AnalyticsRes 1-4NatlUrban/SuburbAVMCorelogicComml & ResNatl
Urb
/Sub/Rural
Appr
Brkr
AVM
DataQuick
Res
1-4
Natl
Urban/Suburb
Appr
Brkr
AVM
First American
Comml
& Res
Natl
Urban/Suburb
Appr
Brkr
AVM
Inside Valuation
Comml
& ResNatlUrban/SuburbBrokerProTeckRes 1-4NatlUrb/Sub/RuralAppr Brkr AVM
ValligentRes 1-4
NatlUrban/SuburbApprValueNetRes 1-4NatlUrban/SuburbAppr AVMVerosRes 1-4NatlAVMSlide31
Comparison MethodsSlide32
Evaluation Review Needs
General v specific
Checklist only?
Part of the purpose is speed/efficiency
Drags on velocity
Secondary data confirmations
Secondary corroborating data
Secondary inspections Slide33
Evaluation Review Questions
Adequately
identifies the collateral property (e.g. legal description, tax number, street address, etc
.)?
Adequately describes the collateral’s current and (if applicable) projected use
?
Provides an estimate of the collateral’s market value in “As is” condition & use & (if applicable) zoning as of the effective date of the Alternate Valuation
?
Indicates all source(s) used in the analysis, as applicable, to value the property (e.g. external data sources, property specific data, photos, neighborhood description, description of local market conditions
)?
Describes the analysis that was performed and the supporting information that was used in valuing the property?Evidence of a sufficient property inspection (e.g. photographs, comments)?Includes all other relevant information (described as needed in Comments below)?Report includes preparer name and signature?Slide34
A Primitive ExampleSlide35
Here’s an Interesting Wrinkle
This review intends to fulfill Regulation B requirements for Residential 1- to 4-unit dwellings. Transactions secured by 1- to 4-unit dwellings that qualify for an
evalution
by law may be valued for
xxxx
by
outside providers. The valuation document under review may be labeled “Appraisal;” but because of its limited content,
it is reviewed under
“evaluation” content standards outlined in the Interagency Appraisal & Evaluation Guidelines (effective Dec-2010).Slide36
Vendor Management
Fulfilling possibilities
List of serviced counties
How many active vendors
How many jobs by county last year
Avg fee by county
How many fulfillment failures by county
Contracts – NDAs - Processing
The follow-up process
What changes can be incorporated to improve?
Portals & ownershipSlide37
To AMC or Not to AMC
Geographic coverage
Panel control
Customary & Reasonable Fees
Waterfall process - upgrades
Portals
Invoicing
Compliance challenges
Would it just be cheaper to bring it in house?Slide38
Automated Valuation Modeling
Products & Options
Hit Rates
Confidence Intervals & FSD
AVM Cascades & Selection Tables
Program Benefits
Speed –
returns in moments
Cost effective – even in a cascade/waterfallSlide39
AVM Validation - Challenges
Regulatory compliance – modelling policy
Sample spread
Sample size
Sample cost
Sample frequency
Validations methods applied to each event
Who owns the validation process?Slide40
Trends in Vendor MgmtFed management requirements are heavy
And getting heavier
Escalating compliance costs
Many banks are considering moving to in-house programs
More product control
Compliance is no worse than vendor management
Cost is ≤ to vendor managementSlide41
Internal Evaluation Risks
Adequacy of Facts
Sufficient documentation
Potential inaccuracies
Adequacy of Opinions
Recognize all needed elements?
Disregard elements?
Value precision?
Does adequate alone = misleading?
Misleading to
whom?Potential inaccuracies acceptable – big pictureRisk is internal business decisionSlide42
Disclosure Risks
Does it matter if an opinion is not disclosed?
Can a consumer recognize the difference between an evaluation and appraisal?
Consumer wounded ego.
What about credit denial?
Consumer uses a disclosed
eval
in unintended ways
Eval
walks to another bank – portabilityDivorce litigation or tax appealPrice representations & negotiationsPersonal financial statementEstate planning or donationSlide43
What About Fed/State Compliance
The enforcement referral
The court subpoena
The patchwork quilt of state regulators
Mandatory v non-mandatory states
Scope of practice Issues
State enforcement risk to an internal program
Built-in exemptions
Fed requirements for qualified evaluators
What about AI Ethics/Standards?Slide44
Comparing possible programs
Outside vendor appraisal
Appraisal-centric
eval
Internal team
eval
– non licensed
Internal team
eval
–licensedSlide45Slide46Slide47
Can BPOs Help?
Shifting risks from in-house to …..
Out-house?
The importance of broker/agent skill
Local knowledge & customary thinking
Can BPOs function as in-lieu evaluations?
The IAG restriction?
Work
arounds
?State brokers regulatory prohibitionsNAR lobbying in the StatesSlide48
What is NAR Up To?
Challenges from Zillow’s sometimes misleading
zestimates
RealtyAlliance
v Local MLSs
The RET server:
Who owns the MLS data? What level of access?
RPR – the NAR AVM – 600 MLS servers feed it.
Not making money. Trying to grow
New NAR rules allow broker developed AVMs in all marketsIssuing rules to keep MLS data from being proprietary by local MLS systemsNAR pursuing inroads to allow brokers to prepare evaluations for financial institutions without a potential listing.Slide49
What are Peers Doing? from CARTSlide50
Dodd Frank & Reg B / ECOA
Key New Definitions
Borrower
Transaction
Collateral – what is a dwelling?
Notification v disclosure
Consumer purpose or
Secured by 1-4 Unit Dwelling
The Dwelling Trump Card
Mission creep from law to rule-makingSlide51
Reg B Notice & Disclosure
LOAN PURPOSE v collateral class problem
COLLATERAL CLASS
Loan Purpose
Consumer
Business
Reg
B Mandated
1-4u dwelling
Notice & Disclosure
No Notice
& Disclosure
Reg
B Exempt
Everything else
Notice / No disclosure
No Notice / No disclosureSlide52
Is This a Dwelling?Slide53
Reg B Impacts Community Banks
Increases financing & liability risk
Forces disclosure of potentially inaccurate but otherwise adequate analysis
Requires deal restructure – financing unsecured to avoid documentation of value
Potentially inaccurate but otherwise adequate can be misconstrued or misused by borrower
Alternative is to order more vendor product to deflect risk
Limits credit access to community borrowers
Inflexible rules don’t sync with the physical collateral world
Added cost of vendor product
Added delay of vendor productSlide54
Reg B Impacts Consumers
Increases confusion
Blurs distinctions from consumer to biz deals
Treats all “valuations” equally for disclosure
Increases cost
Vendor products more costly than internal products
Prioritizes precision over adequacy
Increases delay
Vendor products take additional time
Risk of fulfillment failureSlide55
Homebuilder Impacts
Reg
B intended to give each of thousands of individual consumers an individual appraisal.
but instead ….
Reg
B requires a handful of homebuilders to receive thousands of appraisalsSlide56
Hybrid Product – the BPO Eval
Can it “shift the risk” ?
How to qualify the valuation elements?
Opine price or value -- both?
IAG limitations
Review based qualification of BPO opinion?
Separate opinion using BPO elements only?
Convert into bank-issued estimate of value
Who inks it?
Qualification v state compliance riskWiggle words - disclaimers
E & O need?Slide57Slide58
Appraisers Re-enter the Eval Space
USPAP & state restrictions
Economics
E & O coverageSlide59
Techtonic Shifts
AI Standards v USPAP
FRTs v RET? Where do evaluations
fit?
Should we cage USPAP into FRT only?
HR 5148 (
Leutkemeyer
TILA High Risk Mortgage Bill)
Federal pre-emption – supremacy clauseSee Gibbons v Ogden 22 US 1 (1824)See Gade v National Solid Wastes Mgmt Assoc 505 US 88.98 (1992)See Florida Lime v Avocado Growers Inc
v Paul 373 US 132, 142-43 (1962)Slide60
The Pre-Flight Evaluation
The good-housekeeping seal of approval
Post-eval changes to loan
Impact on eval reliability
Ordering a subsequent appraisal
Valuation priority of placeSlide61
Foreclosure EvaluationsWhat is allowed – de
minimis
rules.
Risks v benefits of use
Can you manage the inspection?
How to manage accounting needs
Fair Value
Liquidation / Distress Value
Pre-foreclosure requirements
Post-foreclosure surprisesSlide62
The Forensic EvaluationMultiple evaluations over time
Same asset
Allows a measure of market change
Retrospective analysis to test an appraisal
Showing editorial selection process
What comps were uncovered but not usedSlide63
Evaluation in Portfolio Monitoring
The Nexus of Accuracy v Adequacy
Existing collateral & the subsequent transaction
Transaction cost v flat profitability shift
Floor values on file as adequacy filter
Against current balance? Increasing balance?
Declining value? Physical deterioration?
Methods?
Owner occupied class
Investment class
Special casesSlide64
Our Friend IRVSlide65
LOAN BALANCE
7.9% R
O
7.0% R
OSlide66
IRV ExampleSlide67Slide68
Trend Tech SpecsSlide69
Gas Station ValidationSlide70
Gas Station PerformanceSlide71
Multiplier TrendingSlide72
ExperiencesHow is Reg B working for you?
How are evaluations working for you?Slide73
Thanks for Attending!