Module Capstone The Assignment Investigate Mt Toba eruption Utilizing the same research techniques you used in Part A write a brief summary of the Toba event 150 word minimum TOBA ID: 795155
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Slide1
Module Capstone: The climatic and societal consequences of a modern catastrophic volcanic eruption
.
Slide2Module Capstone: The AssignmentInvestigate Mt. Toba eruption.
Utilizing
the same research techniques you used in Part A, write a brief summary of the Toba event (150 word minimum).
Slide3TOBA
Krakatoa
Tambora
Krakatoa, Tambora, and Toba are all part of the arc volcano system created by
the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the South East Asian Plate.
Mt Toba
Slide4Volumes of magma (plotted on log scale) released by historic eruptions compared with very large eruptions; inset: same data plotted on linear scale.
See Figures and data at
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1845/2073
S Self Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2006;364:2073-2097
©2006 by The Royal Society
Slide5http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7380
Toba Caldera
Slide6Toba Caldera
Watch the Open University video
Volcanoes: Historic eruptions and their climatic effects (3:23).
At
http://podcast.open.ac.uk/oulearn/science/podcast-s269-earth-and-life#!3d3e2958a5
Further Reading about Toba
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1845/2073
“The effects and consequences of very large explosive volcanic eruptions”
http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1192&context=ers_facpub
Zielinski, G. A.;
Mayewski
, P. A.; Meeker, L.D.; Whitlow, S.; Twickler, M.S.; Taylor, K. (1996). “potential atmospheric impact of the toba mega‐eruption ~71,000 years ago” Geophysical Research Letters 23 (8): 837–840.
http://www.livescience.com/29130-toba-supervolcano-effects.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5jcBWzB3nM 45 minutes
Slide8Module Capstone: The AssignmentDevelop a conceptual model to explore the climatic and societal effects of a Toba-like eruption occurring in the year 2020.
Use
the information from your Toba summary, relevant data relating volcanic eruption events to global and regional temperature changes, and your understanding of energy exchanges within the climate system to develop a conceptual model designed to explore the possible consequences of a Toba-sized eruption occurring in the year 2020.
Slide9How confident are you about building a conceptual model to explore the climatic and societal effects of a modern Toba-like eruption?Not at all confident Somewhat confident Very confident 1 2 3 4 5
Slide10Conceptual (or mental) Models All models have some sort of input, some processing, and an output
.
A Model
Slide11A Visual Model What are the: input, processing, and output
for the graph of data below?
Slide12A Visual Model What are the: input, processing, and output
for the graph of data below?
Input:
raw data
Processing:
organize time and temperature and obtain annual mean
Output:
final graph
Slide13Conceptual (or mental) Models All models have some sort of input, some processing, and an output
.
What are the input, processing, and output for a conceptual model of a catastrophic eruption?
A Model
Slide14Conceptual (or mental) Models All models have some sort of input, some processing, and an output
.
What are the input, processing, and output for a conceptual model of a catastrophic eruption?
Input:
The eruption strength, time of year, and location
Processing:
logical ideas connecting eruption to the physical climate and society
Output:
concept sketches, concept maps, written paragraphs, and systems diagrams
Slide15Conceptual (or mental) Models The input
: is
a large Toba scale volcanic eruption in the year
2020, assumed location and time of year for the eruption are also important.
The processing : your vision/thoughts on how this catastrophic eruption will affect Earth’s climate and society. The connections between the eruption and consequences must have a logical structure, and when possible be based on past events or plausible connections in our modern era.
Output (presenting your ideas): It is easiest to concisely communicate the ideas contained within your conceptual model with short paragraphs, concept maps, concept sketches, and systems diagrams. For the highest score on this activity your report should include all of these.
Slide16Concept Maps and/or concept sketches, system diagrams, and you written discussion all come together to communicate your conceptual Model.
Slide17Concept mapshttp://cmap.ihmc.us/
Above example is an incomplete concept map of climate change; it was drawn using
CmapTools
. See:
Slide18Concept sketchesFor more information see:http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/careerdev/AcademicCareerTeach2013/march.html
Systems diagrams
Slide20A system diagram: identifying feedback structure
Slide21How confident are you about building a conceptual model to explore the climatic and societal effects of a modern Toba-like eruption?Not at all confident Somewhat confident Very confident 1 2 3 4 5
“What aspect are you most/least comfortable with?”
Slide22Your conceptual model should include a discussion of:The effects of the eruption on Earth’s atmosphere.The effects of the eruption on Earth’s energy balance.
How changes in Earth’s energy balance will affect
atmospheric circulation
.
Differences in effects on a regional and global scale.
Possible impacts on local, regional, and/or global economy, changes in public policy, effects on human health and mortality.
The magnitude and the duration of all effects associated with this eruption scenario.
Slide23The Assignment Rubric