Dr Fareed Abdullah Steve Biko Academic Hospital South African Medical Research Council 29 June 2021 affiliations Director Office of AIDS and TB Research SAMRC Public Health Specialist and HIV Clinician Division of Infectious Diseases Steve Biko Academic Hospital ID: 1048516
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1. Inquiry into Ensuring Free and Fair Local Government Elections During COVID-19Dr Fareed AbdullahSteve Biko Academic HospitalSouth African Medical Research Council29 June 2021
2. affiliationsDirector: Office of AIDS and TB Research (SAMRC)Public Health Specialist and HIV Clinician, Division of Infectious Diseases, Steve Biko Academic HospitalSteve Biko Academic Hospital Outbreak Response TeamGDOH Project Leader for Solidarity Fund Equipment and Nursing Support ProjectsHonorary Lecturer, Division of Infectious Diseases, Health Sciences Faculty, University of Pretoria
3. introductionMany factors influence the evolution of the pandemicHost, pathogen and environmental factorsHost factors include natural and vaccine-induced immunityAge, comorbidities and BMINPIs, Human behavior and lockdown restriction levelsSocial class, mobility, modes of transport
4. introductionPathogen factors are not well understood and include contagiousness, severity of disease caused and age distributionMutations are the pathogen enigmaEnvironmental factors include population density, geographic spread
5. Patterns of spreadWave formsSize and shape of wavesExponential growth, peaks and troughsInter-wave period and inter-peak periodsSeeding events, cluster outbreaks and wave triggers
6. The fourth wave - when
7. Fourth wave – when?
8. Interprovincial and local variability
9. Interprovincial and local variability
10. Variability across municipalities
11. deaths variability free state
12. Vaccines and variantsDelta and Beta natural immunityJNJ and Pfizer vaccine induced immunityNew mutationsContagiousnessVaccine coverageMid disease, severe disease, death
13. ConclusionAll or parts of the country will be in a wave for the foreseeable futureWith a monumental effort vaccine coverage could be achieved next yearMust see flattening of the mortality curve Postpone elections till declines in mortality are achievedContinuing with current plans put thousands of lives at risk
14. Thank you for your time and attention
15. acknowledgementsProf Jonny Myers (UCT)