PPT-Effective Communication of Scientific Uncertainty in Policy

Marcia McNutt EditorinChief Science family of Journals Challenges with scientific uncertainty Public perception that if scientists express uncertainty they dont know they are talking about. Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). Harvard, April 23. rd. and 30. th. Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). IMF Lectures, January 18. th. 2013. Talk summarizes a JEL draft with Fernandez-Villaverde and Schneider. Currently very scrappy and only the slides are on-line but hoping to post the paper on-line soon. Lecture One. Paul . Constantine. March 29, 2011. What is UQ???. Uncertainty Quantification – ME470. Paul Constantine. Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert . judgment . Joseph B. Kadane. Carnegie Mellon University. kadane@stat.cmu.edu. “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”. Niels. Bohr. Robert Storm Peterson. Yogi Berra. Samuel Goldwyn. Mark Twain. John L. Campbell. 1. , Ruth D. Yanai. 2. , Mark B. . Green. 1,3. , Carrie . Rose . Levine. 2. , Mary Beth Adams. 1. , Douglas A. Burns. 4. ,. . Donald C. Buso. 5. , . Mark E. Harmon. 6. , Trevor Keenan. Manipulating symbols. Last class. Typology of signs. Sign systems. Symbols. Tremendously important distinctions for informatics and computational sciences. Computation = symbol manipulation. Symbols can be manipulated without reference to content (syntactically. Erzo F. P. Luttmer. Andrew A. Samwick. Dartmouth College and NBER. March 2017. Motivating Question. Future government policy is subject to uncertainty. How costly is this uncertainty?. When does policy uncertainty matter most?. Terminal Learning Objective. Action: Apply the principles of effective communication.. Conditions. : Given a requirement to apply the principles of effective communication and access to AR . 25-50. Terminal Learning Objective. Action: Apply the principles of effective communication.. Conditions. : Given a requirement to apply the principles of effective communication and access to AR . 25-50. What we communicate:. Can get lost in translation despite our best efforts. We say one thing, the other person hears something else. Can often lead to misunderstanding, frustration and conflict.. It sounds so simple: say what you mean.. Section 1: Observation, Describing quantities, and Estimation. Section 2: Measurement uncertainty, Error propagation, and Analytical methods. Section 1 Objectives. . Core Principles. Physics and Observation. 1 COMMUNICATION 2 Communication Learning Objectives . We will: Relate the experience of the Communication Traps game to basic principles of communication. Understand how listening can be an important part of communication. Firm-Level Financial AssetsHuihua Nie1Rui Ruan2Ji Shen3Very PreliminaryAbstractWe use text mining tools to constructa measure of economic policy uncertainty perceived by individual Chinese listed firm investments. Plenary 4: Building . Organisational. capacities for tackling policy and regulatory uncertainty. Parveer. Singh . Ghuman. . Sr. Research Associate, CUTS International. Overview. Relationship between uncertainty and investment.