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Develop future - PowerPoint Presentation

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Develop future - PPT Presentation

s cenarios Phase II Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis Step 11 Christina Lehmann 2014 Credits and conditions of use 11 Develop future scenarios 2 You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions ID: 137856

scenarios future management develop future scenarios develop management christina lehmann threats ecosystem elements work contributing 2015 centre econics factors

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Slide1

Develop future scenarios

Phase IISystemic risk and vulnerability analysisStep 11

© Christina Lehmann 2014Slide2

Credits and conditions of use

11. Develop future scenarios2

You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions:

You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but

not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).

You may not use this work for commercial purposes.

If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management logo, and you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar conditions to this one.  

© Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself.

This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of

Prof.

Dr.

Pierre

Ibisch

and

Dr.

Peter Hobson, co-directors of the Centre for

Econics

and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and

Writtle

College. Compare

:

Ibisch

, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method:

Adaptive

MAnagement

of vulnerability and

RISk

at

COnservation

sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for

Econics

and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN 978-3-00-043244-6). 195 pp

. -

The

Powerpoint

Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann

and Pierre

Ibisch

. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides.

Supported

by

the

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf

of

the

Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ

).Slide3

11. Develop future scenarios

3Slide4

Learning objectives

11. Develop future scenarios

4Slide5

Outline

What does developing future scenarios mean?Why developing future scenarios?

How are future scenarios developed?

Practical Tips

11. Develop future scenarios

5Slide6

What does developing future scenarios mean?

Recognition of possible future changes concerning stresses/ threats/ contributing factors → Try to approach uncertainty through considering likely future events and adaptive management optionsConsidering different points of view of other participants (from other backgrounds)Creating proactive management strategies according to possible future scenarios instead of “quick-fix” solutions and reluctant paralysis (e.g. of scientists)

11. Develop future scenarios

6Slide7

Why developing future scenarios?

Identification of possible future risks or impacts that may change current stresses/ threats/ contributing factors and developmentsTo achieve flexibility, readiness for compromises and tolerance among the participantsCreate more knowledge about which are the most crucial elements that hold the strongest impact on the biodiversity object, to target those in strategy developmentPreparation for step 12 → Concrete rating of future criticality of elements

11. Develop future scenarios

7Slide8

How are future scenarios developed?

Future scenarios are difficult to imagine → tools to overcome routine thinking are useful to remove blind spotsTime Machine

Empathic Perspective Change

The 180° Scenario Tool

The Exaggeration Tool

Easier and more effective to work in smaller “breakout groups”

Time

frame of one human generation (20 years) while assessing biodiversity objects has proven practical11. Develop future scenarios8Slide9

Time Machine

Group is asked “to travel in time”List events or trends relevant 20 years agoe. g. certain presidencies, important international meetings or treaties, population numbers

, existence of IT devices, internet etc.Consider different spatial levels (local, national, regional)

Reflection about extent of changes in 20 years to come

Develop future scenarios

e. g

.

type of government, state of corruption, forest coverage, available technology11. Develop future scenarios9

© Christina Lehmann 2015© Christina Lehmann 2015© Christina Lehmann 2015© Christina Lehmann 2015Slide10

Empathic Perspective Change

Relevant stakeholder groups must be identifiedConsider perspectives of other actors relevant to the management area, whose actions and plans can represent risks or opportunities → Wide range of interests possibleForces participants to not only take their own opinion as “the one and only” and instead take someone else’s viewpoint

11. Develop future scenarios

10

© Christina Lehmann 2015Slide11

Also consider completely opposite views

Imagine conservation activities as threats (e.g. to infrastructural development objects)Set up extra groups for different perspectives (best case scenario: create conceptual model completely from their point of view)E.g. Economic perspectiveconservation objects = elements the corresponding stakeholders want to protect or develop (e. g., roads, mines, livelihoods, plantations

) stresses = elements representing the reduced viability of these objects caused by threats and contributing factors

11. Develop future scenarios

11

Empathic Perspective

ChangeSlide12

The 180° Scenario Tool

Elements of current situation analysis are flippedNegative contributing factors/ threats/ stresses are turned into positive aspects and vice versaGuiding question for this process:

In what scenario can you imagine an opportunity turning into a negative contributing factor or vice versa?

11. Develop future scenarios

12Slide13

The Exaggeration Tool

“Artificial” inflation of all impacting elements (stresses/ threats/ contributing factors)Possible guiding questionWhat could be the worst/ best development of a factor/ threat/ stress?

11. Develop future scenarios

13Slide14

Practical Tips

Thinking about and into future is uncommon in certain cultures → Be prepared to be confronted with reluctanceThis step encourages people to “tell stories”→ In order to save time have them write down their ideas roughly on cards, that are stuck to a table on the wall/ a pin board etc.

11. Develop future scenarios

14

© Christina Lehmann 2014