s cenarios Phase II Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis Step 11 Christina Lehmann 2014 Credits and conditions of use 11 Develop future scenarios 2 You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions ID: 137856
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Slide1
Develop future scenarios
Phase IISystemic risk and vulnerability analysisStep 11
© Christina Lehmann 2014Slide2
Credits and conditions of use
11. Develop future scenarios2
You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions:
You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but
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© Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself.
This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of
Prof.
Dr.
Pierre
Ibisch
and
Dr.
Peter Hobson, co-directors of the Centre for
Econics
and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and
Writtle
College. Compare
:
Ibisch
, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method:
Adaptive
MAnagement
of vulnerability and
RISk
at
COnservation
sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for
Econics
and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN 978-3-00-043244-6). 195 pp
. -
The
Powerpoint
Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann
and Pierre
Ibisch
. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides.
Supported
by
the
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf
of
the
Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ
).Slide3
11. Develop future scenarios
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Learning objectives
11. Develop future scenarios
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Outline
What does developing future scenarios mean?Why developing future scenarios?
How are future scenarios developed?
Practical Tips
11. Develop future scenarios
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What does developing future scenarios mean?
Recognition of possible future changes concerning stresses/ threats/ contributing factors → Try to approach uncertainty through considering likely future events and adaptive management optionsConsidering different points of view of other participants (from other backgrounds)Creating proactive management strategies according to possible future scenarios instead of “quick-fix” solutions and reluctant paralysis (e.g. of scientists)
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Why developing future scenarios?
Identification of possible future risks or impacts that may change current stresses/ threats/ contributing factors and developmentsTo achieve flexibility, readiness for compromises and tolerance among the participantsCreate more knowledge about which are the most crucial elements that hold the strongest impact on the biodiversity object, to target those in strategy developmentPreparation for step 12 → Concrete rating of future criticality of elements
11. Develop future scenarios
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How are future scenarios developed?
Future scenarios are difficult to imagine → tools to overcome routine thinking are useful to remove blind spotsTime Machine
Empathic Perspective Change
The 180° Scenario Tool
The Exaggeration Tool
Easier and more effective to work in smaller “breakout groups”
Time
frame of one human generation (20 years) while assessing biodiversity objects has proven practical11. Develop future scenarios8Slide9
Time Machine
Group is asked “to travel in time”List events or trends relevant 20 years agoe. g. certain presidencies, important international meetings or treaties, population numbers
, existence of IT devices, internet etc.Consider different spatial levels (local, national, regional)
Reflection about extent of changes in 20 years to come
Develop future scenarios
e. g
.
type of government, state of corruption, forest coverage, available technology11. Develop future scenarios9
© Christina Lehmann 2015© Christina Lehmann 2015© Christina Lehmann 2015© Christina Lehmann 2015Slide10
Empathic Perspective Change
Relevant stakeholder groups must be identifiedConsider perspectives of other actors relevant to the management area, whose actions and plans can represent risks or opportunities → Wide range of interests possibleForces participants to not only take their own opinion as “the one and only” and instead take someone else’s viewpoint
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© Christina Lehmann 2015Slide11
Also consider completely opposite views
Imagine conservation activities as threats (e.g. to infrastructural development objects)Set up extra groups for different perspectives (best case scenario: create conceptual model completely from their point of view)E.g. Economic perspectiveconservation objects = elements the corresponding stakeholders want to protect or develop (e. g., roads, mines, livelihoods, plantations
) stresses = elements representing the reduced viability of these objects caused by threats and contributing factors
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Empathic Perspective
ChangeSlide12
The 180° Scenario Tool
Elements of current situation analysis are flippedNegative contributing factors/ threats/ stresses are turned into positive aspects and vice versaGuiding question for this process:
In what scenario can you imagine an opportunity turning into a negative contributing factor or vice versa?
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The Exaggeration Tool
“Artificial” inflation of all impacting elements (stresses/ threats/ contributing factors)Possible guiding questionWhat could be the worst/ best development of a factor/ threat/ stress?
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Practical Tips
Thinking about and into future is uncommon in certain cultures → Be prepared to be confronted with reluctanceThis step encourages people to “tell stories”→ In order to save time have them write down their ideas roughly on cards, that are stuck to a table on the wall/ a pin board etc.
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© Christina Lehmann 2014