ProModel Strategic Portfolio and Resource Capacity Planning Using Simulation PC270 Agenda Simulation 101 For Project Selection For Resource Planning Linking to Project Server Enhancing Existing Projects ID: 727971
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Kevin JacobsonDavid HigginsProModel
Strategic Portfolio and Resource Capacity Planning Using Simulation
PC270Slide3
Agenda
Simulation 101For Project SelectionFor Resource Planning
Linking to Project ServerEnhancing Existing ProjectsPredictive AnalyticsDiscrete Event Simulation in ActionHands-on ExperienceSlide4
Low Risk Approach: Experiment
before “flying the real thing”
Why Use Simulation?Real LifeSimulationRiskHighLowDiagnose Potential IssuesExperiment with different courses of action. (Scenarios)Slide5
Why Use Simulation?
Natural next step in the Portfolio Management Maturity ModelSlide6
Imitates a dynamic system using a computer
model for the diagnoses of potential issues
Provides experimentation to determine remediesRuns forward in time to provide future results todayLet’s look at an Example…What is Simulation Modeling?Slide7Slide8
Congratulations! You are a modeler!
Where is your Model?Slide9
How Simulation Helps Project Selection
Organization’s Strategy = Project
SelectionStrategic Goals (Fruit)What our organization wants to accomplish. Typically measured by KPIsProjects (Branches)The work that will be done to yield the desired strategic goals.Constraints (Roots)The bottom-up support of projects. Short-falls here result in smaller and more delayed fruit.People MoneyWeather, Regulations, Complexity, Etc.Supply ChainQualitySlide10
Project Selection and Constraints…
ProjectProjectProjectProjectWhich portfolio of projects yields the most value?How to prioritize projects based on value?How to align the project timing with organization capacity?BudgetFTEsDeadlines (Time)ScopeProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectProjectCapacity Over TimeProjectSlide11
Another
Reason to Simulate...
Significant risk results from the “Error of Averages”What are some dangers of averages (estimates): Rarely 100% accurateBecome commitmentsMust guess at buffersetc.Slide12
Realistic Estimating is More Like a Plinko
Game
The actual future will yield one, specific result, which can’t be known for certain.However, if the future could be repeated many times, certain outcomes are more likely.Representing this likelihood is often easier than other estimation techniques (PERT, Delphi, Planning Poker, Decomposition, etc.)
10
days
15
days
20
days
25
days
30
days
35
daysSlide13
Engineer
Even perfectly leveled plans have hidden constraints when faced with reality.
How does this help with Capacity Planning?EngineerTesterDesignerEngineerProject 1 – High PriorityProject 2 – Lower PriorityTesterEngineerEngineerTesterSlide14
Task Durations – How long might it take?
Resource Assignments – How much work is required?Costs – How much is this going to cost me?
Revenues or other Values– What kind of money might this yield?Project Survival – Is there a chance my project will fail or be canceled?Capacity Planning Using UncertaintySlide15
New Project Proposals
Portfolio Prioritization and SchedulingChanges in resource or budget availability
Firefighting!When to use Simulation?Slide16
Linked
What-if ScenariosProject Changes:
Shorten or Lengthen Projects and TasksModify Resource AssignmentsRapidly Duplicate ProjectsSuccess vs. FailureSimulation as a Sandbox!Slide17
EPS as the Project Server Sandbox
Project
RepositoryAdd VariabilityAdd Other RiskAdd ResourcesAdd Revenue/ValueModify ProjectsImpact of ConstraintsProject SelectionProject TimingAdjust CapacitiesOptimizeWhat-ifScenariosSimulation SandboxSlide18
What are Some Common ‘What-if’ Scenarios?
Real Life
OutcomesRunSimulationCreate ScenariosProject/ServerStatic Data Current Projects with Unlimited Capacity (Current Schedules) Current Projects with Current Capacity (RIA – Resource Impact Analysis) Drop or Postpone the Start of Lower Priority Projects with Current Capacity Current Projects with Additional Capacity (ROI) Reprioritized Projects with Current Capacity on Revenue or NPV Current Projects but Outsource a Program of Work (More $ than People) Current Projects plus Visionary Additional Projects with/without Additional Capacity Current Projects using static data for next 3 months but using the best practice of Simulation on long term projects via Variability (best case, worst case, most likely). Current Projects with full Risk Modeling (Variability and Survival)Slide19Slide20
Hands-on Experience
Discrete-Event Simulation in ActionSlide21
MyPC
fill out evaluations & win prizes!Fill out session evaluations by logging into MyPC on your laptop or mobile device.Evaluation prizes daily! Claim your prize at the Registration Desk on Level 1.www.msprojectconference.comAfter the event, over 100 hours of resources; including all of the PPT decks and session videos will be available. Slide22
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2014
Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.