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9 O I CM o t o C3 o a o CM ea H3 m I GEOLOGICAL o Probability By A and W THEORETICAL GEOLOGICAL UNITED UNITED DEPARTMENT Secretary GEOLOGICAL Director For CONTENTS Page Abstract ILLUS. A brief digression back to . joint probability: . i.e. . both events . O. . and. . H. occur. .  . Again, we can express joint probability in terms of their separate conditional and unconditional probabilities. Assigning Probabilities and Probability Relationships. Chapter 4. BA 201. Assigning Probabilities. Assigning Probabilities. Basic Requirements for Assigning Probabilities. 1. The probability assigned to each experimental. AS91585. The language of probability questions. .. Section One. The question, "Do you smoke?" was asked of 100 people. . .. Yes. No. Total. Male. 19. 41. 60. Female. 12. 28. 40. Total. 31. 69. 100. The results are shown in the table.. Vocab reminders. Genes are located at a particular. place on DNA (. locus. ). Focus on one locus.. Each partner in a homologous pair (one from mom, one from dad) has the same gene at that locus. The gene might vary, though—an . Experimental probability. : . Probability based on a collection of data.. Will have a table of results or data from the experiment(s)!. What is the difference between . theoretical probability. and . calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . Probability Terminology. Classical Interpretation. : Notion of probability based on equal likelihood of individual possibilities (coin toss has 1/2 chance of Heads, card draw has 4/52 chance of an Ace). Origins in games of chance.. 3.1 . The Concept of Probability. 3.2 . Sample Spaces and Events. 3.3 . Some Elementary Probability Rules. 3.4 . Conditional Probability and Independence. 3.5 . Bayes’ Theorem. 3-. 2. Probability Concepts. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Probability is used all of the time in real life. Gambling . Sports. Weather. Insurance. Medical Decisions. Standardized Tests. And others. Definition of Probability. “The . likelihood of something . Conditional Probability. Conditional Probability: . A probability where a certain prerequisite condition has already been met.. Conditional Probability Notation. The probability of Event A, given that Event B has already occurred, is expressed as P(A | B).. Slide . 2. Probability - Terminology. Events are the . number. of possible outcome of a phenomenon such as the roll of a die or a fillip of a coin.. “trials” are a coin flip or die roll. Slide . A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. 4. Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency. . Dispel . common myths about randomness.. Use . simulation to model chance behavior.. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation.