Forecast for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season Verification of Last 2016 Forecast Outlook OND 2016 amp DJF 201617 Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season October December However below normal rainfall is likely over som ID: 801871
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Slide1
D. S. PaiRCC, Pune
Consensus
Forecast
for
the
2017 NE
Monsoon
Season
Slide2Verification of Last 2016 Forecast Outlook:OND 2016 & DJF 2016-17
Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season (October – December). However, below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Below normal rainfall is also likely over some areas of north and eastern parts of the region. Above normal rainfall is likely over western and northwestern parts of Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region.
During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
Below normal precipitation is likely during the Winter Season (December 2016 to February 2017) over northern most parts of the south Asia, Maldives & neighboring Lakshadweep, and northeastern parts of South Asia including northeast India, east Nepal, Bhutan, and northern parts of Myanmar. Normal precipitation is likely over the remaining parts of the region.
During the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
Slide3ENSO & IOD: Status and Forecast
Slide4ENSO Status : CPCEquatorial SSTs were above average in the central Atlantic, the western Indian, and in the far western Pacific Oceans. SSTs were below average in the central and eastern Pacific
Slide5MMCFS Forecast (Nino 3.4)Plume Forecast: SST anom PDF CorrectedProbability ForecastThe current ENSO neutral conditions over
equatorial Pacific
likely turn to cool neutral conditions during the OND season and then to weak
La Nina conditions by early next year.
Slide6IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model OutlookAlthough SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña, the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates coolish ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Slide7Bureau Of Meteorology (POAMA & Other Models)Published on 10th September 2017
Slide8IOD Condition
Slide9MMCFS Forecast (IOD)Plume Forecast: SST anom PDF CorrectedProbability ForecastThe current IOD neutral conditions over equatorial Pacific likely continue during the OND season and thereafter
Slide10IOD: Bureau Of Meteorology (POAMA & Other Models)
Slide11Summary of Status and Outlook of ENSO & IODCurrently, ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing with Nino3.4 values close to normal values. Atmospheric conditions over the Pacific also indicate ENSO neutral conditions. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates high probability for cooling of SSTs over equatorial central and east Pacific leading to cool ENSO neutral conditions during the 2017 NE monsoon season and then turning to weak La Nina conditions in the early part of next year. Currently, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) neutral conditions are prevailing. The latest forecast from the MMCFS indicates IOD neutral conditions to continue during the northeast monsoon season.
Slide12Forecasts from Country RepresentativesCountryRainfall ForecastTemp ForecastAFGANISTANNORMALNORMAL TO ABOVE NORMALBANGLADESH
BHUTAN
Normal
Normal to above normalINDIA (South Peninsula) NormalNORMAL TO ABOVE NORMALMALDIVES Above Normal over northNormal over central and south Normal to slightly above normalMYNMAR
NORMAL TO
SLIGTHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OND:
Above
normal
NEPAL
NORMAL
Normal
to above normal
PAKISTAN
SRILANKA
NORMAL
NORMAL
Slide13Consensus Forecast MapOND PrecipitationOND TemperatureTemperature over most of the region is likely to be normal to slightly above normal
Slide14SummaryBelow normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and few northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over some southern areas of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receive very little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.
Slide15Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, other regional and global factors as well as the strong intra seasonal features of the region will have larger influence on the climate anomaly patterns over the region leading to increased uncertainty in the prediction of the season averaged rainfall and temperature patterns over the region. The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. A separate consensus statement for winter season (December 2017 to February 2018) will be issued in November 2017.
Slide169/26/2017
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