2007 to Present A Brief History of the LIRA and User Notes F irst developed in 2007 the LIRA was originally benchmarked to the Census Bureaus quarterly Construction Spending C50 series of home improvements and maintenancerepairs to owneroccupied units ID: 804786
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Slide1
A Historical Record of Charts from the Quarterly Press Releases of the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity
2007 to Present
Slide2A Brief History of the LIRA and User Notes
F
irst
developed in
2007, the LIRA was originally benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s quarterly Construction Spending (C-50) series of home improvements and maintenance/repairs to owner-occupied units.
http://
www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/n07-1_bendimerad_0.pdf
In 2008, the C-50 was discontinued, and the LIRA was re-benchmarked to
the Census Bureau’s
monthly C-30 series of home improvement spending to owner-occupied units (maintenance spending was no longer available).
http://
www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/n08-1_will_0.pdf
In 2016, the LIRA was again re-benchmarked to historical estimates of home improvement and maintenance/repair spending based on data from HUD’s biennial American Housing Survey.
http://
www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/n16-4_will_0.pdf
Slide3Leading Remodeling Activity Indicator – First Quarter
2007
Published:
April 2007
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide4Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter
2007
Published:
July 2007
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide5Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2007
Published:
October 2007
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide6Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2007
Published:
January 2008
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide7Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2008
Published:
April 2008
Homeowner
Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide8LIRA RE-BENCHMARKED TO Census c-30
SPENDING ESTIMATES
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/n08-1_will_0.pdf
JULY 2008
Slide9Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter
2008
REBENCHMARKED TO
C-30
Published: July 2008
Homeowner ImprovementsFour-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement
and maintenance/repair activity,
while the re-benchmarked LIRA models
only home
improvement
activity
.
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide10Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter
2008
Published:
October 2008
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide11Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter
2008
Published:
January 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Notes:
The fourth quarter 2008 estimate was calculated using partial-quarter C-30 data from the Census Bureau
. The
former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide12Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter
2009
Published:
April 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note: The
first quarter 2009
estimate was calculated using partial-quarter C-30 data from the Census Bureau
. The
former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide13Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter
2009
Published:
July 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide14Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter
2009
Published:
October 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide15Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter
2009
Published:
January 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide16Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter
2010
Published:
April 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide17Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter
2010
Published:
July 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide18Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Third Quarter 2010
Published:
October 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide19Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Fourth Quarter 2010
Published:
January 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide20Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
First Quarter 2011
Published:
April 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide21Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Second Quarter 2011
Published:
July 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide22Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Third Quarter 2011
Published:
October 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide23Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Fourth Quarter 2011
Published:
January 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide24Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
First Quarter 2012
Published:
April 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide25Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Second Quarter 2012
Published:
July 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide26Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Third Quarter 2012
Published:
October 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Source
: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide27Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Fourth Quarter 2012
Published:
January 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
The fourth quarter 2012 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide28Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter
2013
Published:
April 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
The first quarter 2013 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide29Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter
2013
Published:
July 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
The second quarter 2013 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide30Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter
2013
Published:
October 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note:
The third quarter 2013 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide31Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter
2013
Published: January 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note:
Third
quarter 2013
estimate does not include Census Bureau data, because third quarter
data collection for home improvement spending
was affected by
the October 2013 government shutdown
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide32Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter
2014
Published:
April 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note: The third and fourth quarter 2013 estimate is based on the LIRA, because data collection for home improvement spending by the Census Bureau was impacted by the October 2013 government shutdown
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide33Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Second Quarter 2014
Published:
July 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Notes: The historical data from the U.S. Census Bureau reflects annual revisions that were released on July 1
st
. The second quarter 2014 is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide34Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Third Quarter 2014
Published:
October 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Notes: The historical data from the U.S. Census Bureau reflects annual revisions that were released on July 1
st
. The third quarter 2014 is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide35Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Fourth Quarter 2014
Published:
January 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note: Historical data from the third quarter 2014 onward is based on the LIRA and will remain so until the Census Bureau releases annual revisions on July 1
st
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide36Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
First Quarter 2015
Published:
April 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Note: Historical data from the third quarter 2014 onward is based on the LIRA and will remain so until the Census Bureau releases annual revisions on July 1
st
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide37Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2015
Published:
July 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: (e) – estimated; (p) – projected. Historical data from the second quarter 2014 onward is estimated using the LIRA
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide38Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter
2015
Published:
October 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Notes: (e) – estimated; (p) – projected. Historical data from the second quarter 2014 onward is estimated using the LIRA
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide39Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter
2015
Published:
January 2016
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillions of $
Four-Quarter MovingRate of Change
Notes: (e) – estimated; (p) – projected. Historical data through the third quarter 2015 reflect significant revisions released by the US Census Bureau on 1-4-16. For mor
e information, see:
http://
www.census.gov/construction/c30/news.html
.
The
fourth quarter 2015
is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections
.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide40LIRA RE-BENCHMARKED TO AHS-BASED SPENDING ESTIMATES
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/n16-4_will_0.pdf
APRIL 2016
Slide41Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2016
REBENCHMARKED TO
AHS-BASED SERIES
Published: April 2016
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of ChangeNotes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates
since 2013 are
produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available
.
Slide42Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter
2016
Published:
July 2016
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates since 2013 are
produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available
.
Slide43Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2016
Published:
October 2016
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates since 2013
are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available
.
Slide44Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter
2016
Published:
January 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates
since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide45Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter
2017
Published:
April 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving Rate of Change
Note: Historical
estimates since 2015 are
produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide46Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Second Quarter 2017
Published:
July 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015
are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide47Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Third Quarter 2017
Published:
October 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015
are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide48Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Fourth Quarter 2017
Published:
January 2018
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015
are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide49Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
First Quarter 2018
Published:
April 2018
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
BillionsFour-Quarter Moving Rate of Change
Notes:
Historical estimates since 2015 are
produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Slide50Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity –
Second Quarter
2018
Published:
July 2018
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving TotalsBillionsFour-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: Historical
estimates
since 2015 are
produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.