Balmes Brian Adams Justin McCoy Wind Chill A Forward Approach Statement of the Problem When cold temperatures already exist wind can make the situation much worse Dangerously low wind chill temperatures can cause serious health concerns such as frostbite hypothermia breathing imped ID: 460799
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Kelly Balmes, Brian Adams, Justin McCoy
Wind Chill: A Forward Approach Slide2
Statement of the Problem:When cold temperatures already exist, wind can make the situation much worse.
Dangerously low wind chill temperatures can cause serious health concerns such as frostbite, hypothermia, breathing impediments for sensitive groups, and other health complications.
It is for this reason that having timely forecasts is of the utmost importance for the protection of human life. IntroductionSlide3
Case Study: January 5-7, 2014 Cold Spell
Air mass of arctic origin draped across the Northern Midwest
Wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph, wind chill values of -35 to -55 degreesColdest stretch of weather since February of 1996Wind Chill Warnings issued 48 hours in advance,all of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were under warningsAll schools closed on Monday the 6th, most remained closed on the 7th.Also used data from January 24th-26th, anothersignificant cold spellSlide4
Create plots of probabilities that determine the chance of temperatures exceeding the thresholds for either an advisory or a warning for two different lead times (24 and 48 hours).
Determine the likelihood of an advisory or warning being issued for the inputted latitude and longitude.
ObjectivesSlide5
Collection of SREF ensemble files – provided by Dr.
Greybush.Data from January 4
th, 6th, 24th, and 26th, 2014Actual wind chill advisory and warning events.Description of Input DataSlide6
Defined threshold temperatures values for wind chill advisories and warnings
.Wind
Chill = 35.74 + 0.6215T - 35.75(V0.16) + 0.4275T(V0.16) Advisory threshold = -26.111 degrees CWarning Threshold = -31.667 degrees CCalculated probabilities of thresholds being exceeded.Calculated how many ensemble members had exceeded the threshold at each grid point.Decision Support Algorithm Slide7
Inputted latitude and longitude read in from the terminal.
Probabilities were calculated using data from all the ensemble members and thresholds.
Detailed maps were created, showing which areas were experiencing conditions that were conducive to significantly low wind chill temperatures.Implementation DetailsSlide8
Output came in the form of plotted maps, like the one shown below, for wind chill temperatures.
Description of OutputSlide9
The output also delivers probabilities of advisories and warnings at each grid point.
Description of OutputSlide10
The output also delivers probabilities of advisories and warnings at each grid point.
Description of OutputSlide11
Comparison of Output to Actual EventSlide12
The output also displays to the terminal the likeliness (over or under 50% probability) of a warning or advisory being issued for an inputted latitude and longitude, which can physically be entered by a user of the program.
Description of OutputSlide13
Two cities were chosen in order to test the validity of our program’s ability to determine wind chill advisories and warnings.
First Test: Madison, WI (43.0667N, 89.4W) – test results yielded likely wind chill advisory and warnings.
Test Plan and ExamplesSlide14
Second Test: Dallas, Tx
(32.7758N, 96.7967W) – test results yielded unlikely wind chill advisories and warnings.
Test Plan and ExamplesSlide15
Can be used as a forecasting tool for forecasters determining wind chill advisory and warnings for particular locations.
Forecasters will be able to input SREF data for a particular day to enhance their forecasts.
Emergency management could use it for event cancellations if wind chill advisories or warnings were likely to be issued for the inputted latitude and longitude of an event venue. Potential Uses of this Product Slide16
Different categories of likeliness for advisories/warnings (i.e. slight risks, moderate risks, high risks)
Filtering out temperatures not conducive to significant wind chill conditions (i.e. 80 degrees in Florida)
Taking different wind chill thresholds into account for each stateSpecifying the forecast lead times via terminal input, instead of just having 24- and 48-hour forecastsFuture ImprovementsSlide17
SREF ensemble files used to help determine wind chill advisories and warnings.
Calculated probabilities of the likelihood of wind chill advisory and warnings.
Program output generates maps of wind chill advisory/warning probabilities, as well as wind chill temperatures.Users of the program may input a specified latitude and longitude value.Terminal prints to the screen the likelihood of a wind chill advisory/warning for the desired location. In Summary