Damages of aerosol and ozone precursor emissions to health, - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Damages of aerosol and ozone precursor emissions to health, ecosystems, and climate using energy and air quality models integrated with remote sensing observations

Daven K. Henze, Jana Milford

Kristen Brown, Forrest Lacey,

Kateryna

Lapina

University of Colorado, Boulder

NASA AQAST

NNX11AI54G

83521101Slide2

Integrated Assessment Toolkits

Response

∆

O

3

∆PM2.5∆CH4

Impacts

- health - climate - ecosystem

Policy

∆Emissions

Systems Modeling (e.g., GCAM, MARKAL)

Assessment Tools

(e.g.,

BenMAP

)

Optimization?

Climate & Air Quality Models

(e.g., GISS



WRF



CMAQ)Slide3

Integrated Assessment Toolkits

Response

∆

O

3∆PM

2.5∆CH4

Impacts

- health - climate - ecosystem

Policy

∆Emissions

Systems Modeling (e.g., GCAM, MARKAL)

Climate & Air Quality Models

(e.g., GISS



WRF



CMAQ)

Assessment Tools

(e.g.,

BenMAP

)

Screening Tools

Source-receptor modeling

Remote sensingSlide4

Emissions-based impacts with adjoint receptor modeling: direct aerosol

radiative forcing

AR4, Forster et al., 2007

Attribution to 10

6

sources for the cost of x10 GEOS-

Chem

simulations using adjoint methods (Henze et al., 2012)

Online at

http://glimpse-project.appspot.com

Rob Pinder, Farhan

Akhtar

Slide5

US climate and AQ co-benefits: GLIMPSE and MARKAL

AQ and RF diagnostics of emissions-cap scenarios (

Akhtar et al., 2013):AQ and Climate fee-based co-benefits

(Brown et al., 2013; in prep):

AQ fees

GHG fees

c

ombo fees

AQ fees

GHG fees

c

ombo fees

2045

NOx

: (fees – BAU) /BAU

2045 CO

2

: (fees – BAU) /BAU

Radiative

Forcing (W/m

2) Energy sourcesSlide6

Climate and health impacts of Short Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)

SLCPs =

CH

4

,

BC, OC, CO, VOCs, NOx

, SO2, NH3, (HFCs)

UNEP 2011;

Shindell

et al., 2012

Ramanathan

and

Xu

, 2010; Hu et al., 2013

Ramanathan

and Carmichael, 2008Slide7

Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)

- Initiated Feb 2012

- Bangladesh, Colombia, Ghana, Mexico, Sweden, US, and UNEP - now 109 members (50 countries, numerous IGOs and NGOs).Cross-cutting efforts:

Financing SLCP mitigationSLCP National Action Plans

www.unep.org

/ccac

Need country-specific responses for arbitrary ∆emissions

Response

∆O

3

,

∆PM

2.5

∆CH

4

Impacts

- health

- climate

- ecosystem

Mitigation

∆Emissions

First action: rapid emission and scenario assessment toolkitSlide8

Receptor oriented analysis: gridded per-emissions responses useful for policy application

Sensitivity of Bangladesh annual pop-PM

2.5 to emissions:

SO2

BC

Adjoint result: change in PM2.5 in Bangladesh

per change in emission in any location.

Source attribution (linear estimation):Slide9

Receptor oriented analysis: gridded per-emissions responses useful for policy application

Sensitivity of Bangladesh annual pop-PM

2.5 to emissions:

SO2

BC

Response to 2030 – 2005 ∆emissions

∆

µg/m3Owing to ∆E in Bangladesh (81,686 deaths)

Owing to ∆E in Rest of World (92,830 deaths)

biofuel

fossil fuelSlide10

Satellite constraints on surface PM

2.5

PM2.5

subgrid variability (0.1° x 0.1°) resolved using MODIS AOD and CALIOP vertical profile (van Donkelaar et al., 2013):

2°x2.5° grid cell

In situ PM

2.5

[µg/m3]

Satellite-derived PM

2.5

[µg/m3]

Satellite-derived PM

2.5

shows good agreement with in situ total PM

2.5

and

speciated

PM

2.5

concentrations (Philip et al., 2014).

Satellite-derived PM2.5 revolutionary for global health studies.Approaches and instrumentation evolve (e.g., VIIRS, TROP-OMI,…).Slide11

Satellite constraints on tropospheric O3

radiative forcing

Combine GEOS-Chem

adjoint sensitivities with TES IRKs:

Estimate location-specific RF contributions by species:

(Worden et al., 2008)

(Bowman and Henze, 2012)Slide12

Applications of air quality and climate response coefficients

These satellite /

adjoint model based health and climate response coefficients used by UN Assessments (LAC), World Bank, HTAP, national EPAs in CCAC member nations,

… AQAST is global!Contribute to Tiger Teams:

web-enabled support tools (Szykman, Spak)

NE AQ Episodes (Fiore, Holloway)Slide13

Tiger Team: Reactive Nitrogen deposition

with D. Jacob, A. Russell, J. Milford, B. Schichtel

, J. Vimont, R. Schefe, J. Kelly, L. Pardo

Many Federal Class I areas experience hazardous levels of Nr deposition in the US (Ellis et al., 2013; Lee et al., 2015).

US primary AQ standards will not solve this problem (EPA, 2011).

EPA currently reviewing secondary standards on

SOx

and NOx to protect ecosystem welfare. Lee et al. (2015): Where does the Nr come from? => lots of things that are far away!

NH3:

livestock, fertilizer,

natural NOx:

transport

,

EGU

,

commercial

,

aircraft

,

lightning,

soil Slide14

Tiger Team: Reactive Nitrogen deposition

with D. Jacob, A. Russell, J. Milford, B. Schichtel

, J. Vimont, R. Schefe, J. Kelly, L. Pardo

Many Federal Class I areas experience hazardous levels of Nr deposition in the US (Ellis et al., 2013; Lee et al., 2015).

US primary AQ standards will not solve this problem (EPA, 2011).

EPA currently reviewing secondary standards on

SOx

and NOx to protect ecosystem welfare. Ellis et al. (2013) and Paulot et al. (2013) explore how this will change in the future

NH3

: livestock, fertilizer,

natural NOx

:

transport

,

EGU

,

commercial

,

aircraft

, lightning,

soil Slide15

Current and future impacts of long-range transport on vegetative ozone exposure

in the U.S.

Kateryna Lapina, Daven Henze,

Jana Milford (CU Boulder)and members of the O3 Secondary Standard Tiger Team:

Arlene Fiore, Mieyun Lin, Greg Carmichael, Min Huang, Gabriel

Pfister, Steve Dutton, Jeffrey Herrick, Travis Smith, Vicki Sandiford

, Ellen Porter

NCAR and CU Boulder O

3

GardensSlide16

Vegetative O

3

Exposure Tiger Team StudiesBackground O3 W126 (Lapin et al., JGR, 2014):

contributes 4 – 12% nationally, 9 – 27% in the intermountain West.different (lower) than background daytime O3.m

ore variability across models & methods than background daytime O3.

RCP 8.5

Foreign / US

Future O

3

W126 (Lapin et al., ES&T, 2015):

RCP 2.6: Domestic emission reductions drive attainment, delayed 10 yrs by global CH

4

increases.

RCP

8.5: Background W126 O

3

overtakes domestic by 2020, driven largely by global CH

4

emissions.

Long-range transport impacts on crop and

vegetation damage (Lapin et al., ES&T, 2016):Relative loss mostly from domestic NOxMore than half of the anthro NOx responsible for total vegetative damage originates outside states where the damage occurs % US NOx Emission% US Wheat Loss Influence% US Wheat Loss – InfluenceSlide17

Summary

• US AQ and Climate co-benefits: possible, perhaps more so from the perspective of AQ co-benefits of climate policies.

• Cookstoves: clear ambient health benefits, climate co-benefits more likely in some countries than others • US reactive Nr deposition

: a multi-state issue, increasing role of NH3 (sources highly uncertain)• O

3 vegetative exposure: background W126 issues are distinct from background MDA8; relative crop losses a cross-state issue.