Public Opinion amp Input Politics Johan Rock amp Henrik Werenskiold EKC Theory The relationship between environmental degradation and economical growth GDP per capita can be represented as an inverted Ushaped curve ID: 535368
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Slide1
Environmental Kuznets Curve
Public Opinion & Input Politics
Johan Rock &
Henrik
WerenskioldSlide2
EKC Theory
The relationship between environmental degradation and economical growth (GDP per capita) can be represented as an inverted U-shaped curve: Slide3
Stern’s Regression Model (2003)
ln
E/P
it
=
i
+ y
i
+
1
ln
GDP/P
it
+
2
ln
GDP/P
2
it
+
it
P = population
i
= country
t
= time
There may be an inverted U-shaped relation between urban ambient concentrations of some pollutants and income though this should be tested with more rigorous time series or panel data methods. (2003)
Will this inverted U-shaped relation be stronger in democracies than authoritarian regimes?Slide4
Our
Regression
Model
ln
E
/
P
it
=
i
+
y
i
+ (
dg +
1
ln
GDP
/
P
it
+ (
dg
2
+
2
ln
GDP
/P
2
it
+ control variable +
it
P = population
i
= country
t = time
d = democracy/ non-democracy dummy variable
A dummy variable for democracy has been added to the regression model in order to investigate whether there is a distinction between democracies and non-democracies
Is it possible to use a democracy index instead of dummy variable?
Is it feasible to use oil production as a control variable?Slide5
Mechanisms of the EKC
Transition from industrial to a service orientated economy.
Export of polluting industrial processes abroad.
Technological advances, generating less pollution
Higher awareness about the detrimental effects of pollution among voters.
Can the analysis confirm this?
MV preferencesSlide6
Data
Same data as used in
the
Stern
investigation
focusing
on
sulphur
dioxide
(SO2)
concentrations
in urban areas.
i = 40
countries
t = 40
years
Collecting
data from World
Value
Survey (WVS)
Slide7
Critique
Non-democracy
– data
on
emissions
is more
likely
to be
difficult
to
find
and
one
would
have to
question
its
validity
.
Non-democracies
generally
tend
to be less
affluent
than
democracies
.
Therefore
we
question
whether
authoritarian
countries
are
rich
enough
to be
included
in
the
study
.
The
robustness
of
the
EKC
curve
itself
has
been
questioned
by
researchers
.