Authors Anne F Van Loon et al Nature Feb 2016 Kimberly Duong March 1 2016 Background This paper describes human influences on drought potential feedbacks between drought and society Land use changes by humans alter hydrologic processes evapotranspiration infiltration surface runo ID: 631409
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Slide1
Drought in the AnthropoceneAuthors: Anne F. Van Loon et al (Nature, Feb 2016)
Kimberly Duong
March 1,
2016Slide2
BackgroundThis paper describes:
human influences on drought
potential feedbacks between drought and society
Land use changes by humans alter hydrologic processes (evapotranspiration, infiltration, surface runoff,
etc
)
In order to cope with future drought, we must consider human influence as much as we do natural climate variability (yes, it’s that significant!)Slide3
Redefining DroughtDrought is traditionally considered a
natural
phenomenon only
This way of thinking hinders effective drought monitoring and management
Authors suggest including human-caused water shortages in definition of drought
New definition = exceptional lack of water compared with normal conditions
Drought
is an episodic phenomenon, which is different from
water scarcity
(a long-term imbalance between supply and demand)Slide4
Classifications
Soil moisture
drought
: below
-normal soil moisture levels
Hydrological
drought
: below
-normal river discharge, groundwater, lake, reservoir levels
In regions without heavy anthropogenic modification of the water cycle, these droughts are caused by
meteorological anomalies
.
However, in most places, significant human development results in changes in surface/subsurface water abstraction and land use change
Therefore, we should distinguish between climate induced, human induced, and human modified droughtsSlide5
Shift between different types of drought
Climatic drivers
Human drivers
Hydrological catchment processes
Alterations by human activities
Changes to human influence on drought & climate variabilitySlide6
Authors show simulated water supply that considers only natural drivers will
underpredict
(or not predict at all) the presence of a drought. This type of drought (middle example) would be purely human-induced
Drought that has both natural and human influences (on right side) will
have
underestimated severity if
simulations only consider natural driversSlide7
Drought Research
Properly attributing drought to both human and natural drivers is essential
Why? Because it informs drought management on whether to focus on
adaptation
(in response to natural drought) or on
prevention
of human-induced drought
Researchers can use virtual models to assess groundwater levels and
streamflow
in the absence of human influences
Research gap: feedbacks on soil moisture,
streamflow and aquifer water levels are rarely quantifiedIn California, near-future groundwater legislation will impact California water resources, but it is unclear how it affects droughts
Societal adaptation to drought results in a new “normal” water level for that societySlide8
ConclusionWe need to consider drought as an interaction of both
natural and human
influences!
We need to integrate
natural and social sciences when
doing drought research so that we can better predict, manage, and prevent future droughts
.
(Shout out to Australia for combining technology, education, and pricing during the Millennium drought)Slide9
ReferencesVan Loon et al. “Drought in the Anthropocene
.” Nature Geoscience,
Vol
9,
pg
89 – 91, Published online: 02 February 2016.
Web link:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n2/full/ngeo2646.html
Slide10
Hi Stan!