Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction
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Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction

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Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction




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Presentation on theme: "Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1

Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction

Andrei Gabrielov

Purdue University

West Lafayette, IN, USA

www.math.purdue.edu/~agabriel

Slide2

San Francisco, April 18, 1906

Slide3

Plate Tectonics

Major tectonic plates and world seismicity

Slide4

Plate Tectonics

Plate boundaries and tectonic faults

Slide5

North American

Plate

Pacific

Plate

Slide6

Elastic Rebound Theory

Discovered after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (before plate tectonics theory).

Slide7

Elastic Rebound Theory

Discovered after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (before plate tectonics theory).

Slide8

Elastic Rebound

Slow build-up of deformation (strain) in the rocks by plate motion. Strain (energy) is released suddenly as fault slips.

Slide9

Earthquake Focus and Epicenter

Slide10

Earthquakes generate elastic waves:Body waves: P (pulse), S (transverse) Surface waves: R (Rayleigh), L (Love)

P-wave

First

arrival

S-wave

Surface waves

Time 

Seismogram for a distant earthquake

Slide11

A wave pulse (P-wave)

Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html

Slide12

Transverse wave (S-wave)

Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html

Slide13

Rayleigh wave

Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html

Slide14

Slide15

Seismic waves through

the Earth’s interior that indicate structure (crust, mantle, outer core, inner core, etc.)

Seismic Waves in the Earth

Slide16

Magnitude

Measure of the

ENERGY

released in the earthquake, based on vibration caused by seismic waves

Logarithmic scale

M = 6 is ten times greater vibration, and a hundred times more energy, than M = 5 (at the same distance)

Should not be mistaken for

INTENSITY

the measure of the damage caused by the earthquake

Slide17

Moment = M

0 = µ A D (dyne-cm) (dyne is a unit of force)µ = shear modulus ~ 32 GPa in crust (~3.2 x 1011 dynes/cm2), ~75 GPa in mantle (a measure of strength of rocks)A = LW = area (cm2), D = average displacement (cm)Mw = 2/3 log10(M0) - 10.7

Moment Magnitude Mw

Epicenter (location on Earth’s surface

above the hypocenter)

Focus or hypocenter(point of initiation of the rupture)

*

Depth

Slide18

Gutenberg-Richter Law

Slide19

DescriptorMagnitudeAverage AnnuallyGreat8 and higher1 ¹Major7 - 7.917 ²Strong6 - 6.9134 ²Moderate5 - 5.91319 ²Light4 - 4.913,000 (est.)Minor3 - 3.9130,000 (est.)Very Minor2 - 2.91,300,000 (est.)¹ Based on observations since 1900. ² Based on observations since 1990.

Worldwide earthquakes per year (from USGS):

Slide20

Aftershocks

Earthquakes that happen following a mainshock, in the same region but of smaller magnitudeAftershock frequency distribution in time t after the mainshock satisfies Omori Law: Bath’s Law: Aftershock’s magintude is approximately 1.2 less than mainshock’sAftershocks frequency-magnitude distribution satisfies Gutenberg-Richter law

Slide21

World’s largest earthquakes since 1900

Slide22

 

Location

Date UTC

Mag.

Lat.

Long.

1

Chile

1960 05 22

9.5

-38.29

-73.05

2

Prince William Sound, Alaska

1964 03 28

9.2

61.02

-147.65

3

Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

2004 12 26

9.1

3.30

95.78

4

Honshu

, Japan

2011 03 11

9.0

38.32

142.37

5

Kamchatka

1952 11 04

9.0

52.76

160.06

6

Maule

, Chile

2010 02 27

8.8

-

35.85

-

72.72

7

Off the Coast of Ecuador

1906 01 31

8.8

1.0

-81.5

8

Rat Islands, Alaska

1965 02 04

8.7

51.21

178.50

9

Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

2005 03 28

8.6

2.08

97.01

10

Assam - Tibet

1950 08 15

8.6

28.5

96.5

11

Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

2012 04 11

8.6

2.31

93.06

12

Andreanof Islands, Alaska

1957 03 09

8.6

51.56

-175.39

13

Southern

Sumatra, Indonesia

2007 09 12

8.5

-

4.44

101.37

14

Banda Sea, Indonesia

1938 02 01

8.5

-5.05

131.62

15

Kamchatka

1923 02 03

8.5

54.0

161.0

16

Chile-Argentina Border

1922 11 11

8.5

-28.55

-70.50

17

Kuril Islands

1963 10 13

8.5

44.9

149.6

Slide23

Continental USA largest earthquakes

Slide24

Largest Earthquakes in the Continental USA

 

Location

Date

Magnitude

1.

Cascadia

subduction

zone

1700 01

26

˜9

2.

Fort

Tejon

, California

1857 01

09

7.9

3.

San Francisco, California

1906 04

18

7.8

4.

Imperial Valley, California

1892 02

24

7.8

5.

New Madrid, Missouri

1811 12

16

7.7

6.

New Madrid, Missouri

1812 02

07

7.7

7.

New Madrid, Missouri

1812 01

23

7.5

8.

Owens Valley, California

1872 03

26

7.4

9.

Landers, California

1992 06

28

7.3

10.

Hebgen

Lake, Montana

1959 08

18

7.3

11.

Kern County, California

1952 07

21

7.3

12.

West of Eureka, California

1922 01

31

7.3

13.

Charleston, South Carolina

1886 09

01

7.3

14.

California - Oregon Coast

1873 11

23

7.3

15.

N Cascades, Washington

1872 12

15

7.3

Slide25

Slide26

Strong Earthquakes Nucleate in Some “Dangerous” Structures (D-nodes)

Gelfand, et al., 1976. Qualitatively, D-nodes are recognized by local depression on the background of NG‑Q depression (“local tension on the background of general compression”)by proximity of hydrothermal reservoirs

Slide27

Non-precursory

state

Precursory state

Clustering

Range of

correlation

in space

Intensity

Magnitude-

frequency

relation

lgN

m

lgN

m

Earthquake prediction

A strong earthquake is preceded by the following changes in seismicity:

Slide28

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF PREDICTION

Slide29

Intermediate-term (5 yrs) PredictionAlgorithm M8-MSc, Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov

Slide30

Predicting the 3/11/2011 M9 earthquake in Japan

Slide31

Predicting the

4/11/2012M8.6 and M8.2 Earthquakes off the Western coast of Northern Sumatra,Indonesia

Slide32

FRONTIERS OF SIMILARITY

Precursors have been defined for earthquakes.Only the final scale was adjusted for starquakes.

Slide33

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS

Slide34

Prediction of US Recessions

Slide35

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (Keilis-Borok and Lichtman)Prediction is based on thirteen socio-economic and political factors. Victory of challenging party is predicted when 6 or more factors are in its favor. Otherwise victory of incumbent party is predicted.

Retrospective Analysis: 1860 - 1980

*

years when popular vote was reversed by electoral vote.Red - incumbent won, blue – challenger won.

Predictions published months in advance: all 8 - correct

Slide36

Key 1: (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.Key 2: (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.Key 3: (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.Key 4: (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.Key 5: (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.Key 6: (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.Key 7: (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.Key 8: (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.Key 9: (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.Key 10: (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.Key 11: (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.Key 12: (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.Key 13: (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

13 Keys to Presidency (

Keilis-Borok

and

Lichtman

)

Answer

YES

favors re-election of the incumbent party

Slide37

• KEY 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)• KEY 2: Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)• KEY 3: Incumbency. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)• KEY 4: Third party. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE)• KEY 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)• KEY 6: Long-term economy. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)• KEY 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)• KEY 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)• KEY 9: Scandal. The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)• KEY 10: Foreign/military failure. The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)• KEY 11: Foreign/military success. The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)• KEY 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)• KEY 13: Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

Answers for the

2012 presidential election

(published 28 months before the election)

Slide38

Slide39