CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE 1 GLOBAL WARMINGCOOLING CYCLES FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE meaning a very long time horizon By Rocky Romero Rev 3 CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE 2 Ive structured the explanation of Climate Change in three parts ID: 768841
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CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE 1 GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE (meaning a very long time horizon) By Rocky Romero Rev 3
CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE 2 I’ve structured the explanation of Climate Change in three parts…
CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE 3 Part 1 – Understanding the Climate Change Debate Part 2 – Understanding climate change in the context of earth’s history Part 3 – Climate Modeling, obfuscatory terms & labels and the cost of Climate Change This part has not been completed yet and is not posted
4 Before discussing an inflammatory issues such as Climate Change… Let’s start with a different data set , like this, with a variable on the Y-axis plotted against Time Variable Time This is a real dataset PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE
5 Let’s also understand the “Scientific Method” And how important “ Peer Review ” is to the process PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Scientific Method http://heyfreqs.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/scientific-method-model1.jpg
6 Now, if you analyze this data set, what would be your conclusion? “the variable trends downward over time” PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time
7 If you wondered what the value of this variable would be in the future, You would use math to analyze the data and derive a formula PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 If T = 0, V=3.5 If T = 3, V=1.9 If T = 6, V=0.4 Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
8 If you wondered what the value of this variable would be in the future , You would then use this formula to project what the variable is likely to be in the future PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Y-Axis Time 3 2 1 0 Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T 7 Future Predictions Zone If T = 7, V=-0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
9 Maybe your research on this variable starts a movement about this variable and other scientists analyze your formula, derived from your dataset, and find it to be correct PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
10 After some time, 95% of all scientist who study this variable might use your formula and/or agree with your projections PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
11 The UN might assemble an international panel to validate your data, formula, and projections The media might cover the UN report and the general population watches, buys in , thus gaining popular support PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
12 You won’t understand why some people disagree with your formula & its projections You might label them as “ deniers ”PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
13 You might refuse to “discuss alternate points of view” because you consider other views/ arguments as being based on “ pseudo-science ”PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
14 You review all the support, both scientific and popular for your data analysis/formula/ projections PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
15 Everyone is so sure of their position on this variable that they consider the matter “closed” ; “NO MORE CONSIDERATION of ALTERNATE VIEWS” PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T “Group-think ” prevails
Scientific Method 16 As a result, different views on this variable become polarized and non-communicative ; The progression of SCIENCE on this variable has stopped PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Peer review discussions shutdown -
Scientific Method This is important… “SCIENCE and DISCUSSION on this variable have stopped!” ONCE THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD’S PEER-REVIEW COMPONENTS ARE SHUTDOWN , ANY “HYPOTHESIS” BECOMES ONLY AN “ OPINION ” AND AS THE OLD SAYING GOES “WE ALL HAVE ONE”!
18 But suppose that there is a larger set of data showing the changes of this variable over a MUCH LONGER PERIOD of time that is available but was not used … PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Variable Time Compressing the X-axis Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
The dataset you originally started with is now just the red line on the complete dataset PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
Upon examination, you see that the dataset you originally started with is only a few data points compared to all the data points available …. PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
Looking beyond the original dataset, you see the bigger picture of the reality of this variable PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
The derived formula from your dataset projects a decline in the variable with time But in reality this variable actually increases with time as shown here… PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
Since the derived formula incorrectly predicts the direction of the variable with time, the FORMULA IS INCORRECT! PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
Assuming the proper procedure was used to derive the formula and since the formula was derived FROM the dataset, it follows that something must be wrong WITH the dataset! PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
Time to take focus off the small dataset , scrap the original formula and start over…PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Derived Formula V = 3.5 – 0.517T
Proper science would, upon realizing that there is much more data available in which to do a more thorough analysis, pursue a more complex formula for the much larger dataset PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time
Proper science would, upon realizing that there is much more data available in which to do a more thorough analysis, pursue a more complex formula for the much larger dataset PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time THIS IS NOT HAPPENING!
As a side-note, the complete dataset used in this example is actually the HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET and the dataset initially used is the Oct 07 to Feb 09 crash period! PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Dow Jones Industrial Index
The crash period is a small dataset, only 1.3% of the whole dataset available Analysis of this limited dataset yielded the wrong conclusion As you know, the long-term stock market actually trends upward! PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Dow Jones Industrial Index
So, in summary, we see that by using a limited dataset, the formula originally derived was erroneous and as a result the wrong conclusions about this variable were deduced PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Dow Jones Industrial Index
Another way of summarizing…this limited dataset caused major scientific problems that lead to a wrong formula , wrong conclusions, wrong projections and a breakdown of the Scientific Method Peer Review Process PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Dow Jones Industrial Index
So, what is needed to understand how this example relates to the climate change debate? PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE Variable Time Dow Jones Industrial Index
PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE A paradigm shift to see that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is using a very limited dataset , which ignores past cycles of global cooling & warming , on which to base the IPCC’s projections of global climate change Use a dataset that has a much longer view of earth’s climate history: the Geologic Record Stop labeling & bullying opposing views and maintain adherence to the tried and true Scientific Methodology Peer Review Process WHAT IS NEEDED IS…
PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE If the 650 million years of climate data in the Geologic Record is plotted on a paper that stretches from Austin to Dallas , the section of data that the IPCC uses is only the last 6 inches of this char t! The IPCC dataset is not recorded over a sufficient time span , when compared to the Geologic Record, to yield reliable scientific conclusions about earth’s current warming phase and man’s involvement, if any REGARDING THE NEEDED PARADIGM SHIFT…
PART 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE With the new paradigm shift you now have , it’s time to move on to understanding climate change in the context of earth’s history , let’s begin…
http://heyfreqs.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/scientific-method-model1.jpg http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4037%20 http://www.compoundchem.com/2014/04/02/a-rough-guide-to-spotting-bad-science/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilywillingham/2012/11/08/10-questions-to-distinguish-real-from-fake-science/
650000000 300 =195*5280 x x= 5.7inches
PART 2: CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE 41 GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE (meaning a very long time horizon)
GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES 42 Let’s get this out of the way now…. ”GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL and it is NOT MAN-MADE!” We know this, not from today’s media or political reports, not from global temperature studies of the past 300 yrs or 1000 yrs or 50,000 yrs, but from the geologic record of more than 650 MILLION YEARS!
GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES 43 There have been at least 4 major cycles of global warming/cooling in earth’s history The warming periods seem to last much (3X) longer than the cooling periods (avg 114 million yrs vs 26 my) Avg Earth temp gets 20 degrees hotter than it is today CO2 levels were as much as 20 times what they are today All or almost all glaciers melt, sea level rises 400 feet from time of max cooling to max warming
GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES 44 The core chart that shows what has been happening to earth’s temperature over geologic time is from Dr. C. R. Scotese , a geologist at the University of Texas at Arlington (his PhD was from Univ. of Chicago), creator of the Paleomap Project to understand prehistoric earthDr. Scotese is highly regarded among his peers and you will find countless references to his work on the internet For additional interest, see his Paleomap Project website at http://www.scotese.com/ His methodology for mapping ancient climates is described at http://www.scotese.com/climate1.htm
GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES 45 Dr. Scotese’s Paleomap chart looks like this… I’ve added notes to his chart to increase clarity so that now it looks like this…
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING Geologic Record shows that Earth has gone thru multiple cycles of Cooling/Warming Cycles typically last tens of millions of years ( avg : warm-114my , cool-26my ) ! 46 Historical MAXIMUM average temp of Earth Historical AVERAGE temp of Earth Historical MINIMUM average temp of Earth
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING As a side note… Notice that warming cycles I show above start at the bottom of the cooling cycle , not after rising above earth’s average temp ; as this chart shows 47
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING To further clarify this terminology problem Some see warming of the Globe occuring when temps are above the blue bar, into the red zone I use rising temps as the START of a warming cycle 48
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING Back to the science discussion… Last MINIMUM earth temperature was about 2 million years ago Earth has been warming ever since! 49
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, earth’s current average temperature is 58.2 degF or about ½ way up to the historical average 50
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING In summary, this chart shows the major cycles of warming/cooling over geologic time Geologic history shows us that it’s going to get A WHOLE LOT WARMER! 51
77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING Now let’s look at the last 800,000 years to see the variations within the major cycles 52
53 GLACIATION IN LAST 800,000 YRS After the Last Global Cooling Period had reached it’s maximum (at star), temperatures started rising Some scientist use the concentration of CO2 as an indicator of temperatures Even with generally rising temps, there were periods of cooling; 4 Glaciation Periods in the last 800,000 years We will focus on the last one: Wisconsin Years BP CO2, ppm 11,000 yrs ago
54 BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THIS COOL WEATHER? 77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 Smooth avg curve is actually a line with considerable variation when looked at closer Looking even closer you can see the considerable variation of data Zooming in closer you can see the smaller cycles within the general trend WITHIN A MAJOR CYCLE ARE SEVERAL OTHER SMALLER CYCLES AND WITHIN THOSE ARE LOTS OF VARIATION FROM YEAR TO YEAR AS THIS WILL SHOW… The point is that climate can have drastic changes from year to year and still be on a general trend upward when measured with a geologic timescale
55 BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THIS COOL WEATHER? 77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3 Smooth avg curve is actually a line with considerable variation when looked at closer Looking even closer you can see the considerable variation of data Zooming in closer you can see the smaller cycles within the general trend WITHIN THE MAJOR CYCLE ARE SEVERAL OTHER SMALLER CYCLES AND WITHIN THOSE ARE LOTS OF VARIATION FROM YEAR TO YEAR AS THIS WILL SHOW…
Now, back to the major cycles… 56 WHAT CAUSES THESE CYCLES We are still searching for the scientific explanation of these 4 major cycles It is likely related to either plate tectonic processes , solar activity, volcanic activity, or astrophysical phenomena, or all four, but is currently unknown
WHAT CAUSES THESE CYCLES 57 The shorter cycles, those of 100,000 yrs or less are explained, at least partially, by a theory known as the “ Milankovitch Cycle” The “Cycle” is the combined effect of three different attributes of Earth’s orbit , namely, it’s orbit around the sun , the changes in the tilt of it’s axis, and the changes in procession of the axis
58 WHY DO THESE CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING EXISTS Changes in: Earth’s orbital shape inclination of earth’s axis procession of earth’s axis Combined effect correlates well with paleotemp record
59 CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING From Wikipedia
60 SUMMARY We believe that current evidence of Global Warming is based on data over a relatively short time horizon of a few 10's or 100's or 1000's of years The short time horizon results in misleading "scientific" conclusions When looking at a much longer time horizon , like that of the geologic timescale, one can see that we have experienced at least 4 major Global Warming and Cooling cycles, none of which could have been caused by man. Within each of these major cycles are innumerable smaller but consequential mini-cycles of warming & cooling Global Warming of earth started again 1.8 million years ago Earth’s avg. temp today is only ¼ as high as it will eventually get ; we’re not yet up to the avg Earth’s temp over geologic history
61 SUMMARY It is possible that man's lack of respect for the environment might contribute to an acceleration of a natural process of global warming Until the scientific community can return to peer reviewed, non-biased, credible scientific study using all the data available rather than choosing what data to use, and until global warming scientific study stops bullying opposing views , we should rely on common sense which leads us to conclude that we should be doing all we can to protect our environment and our home… Earth http://www.climateshifts.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/earth.gif
62 Next to be added Future revisions will include evaluations of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the book “Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist” by Bjorn Lomborg Stay tuned!
63 From Wikipedia NEXT 7 SLIDES WERE PART OF A LECTURE DEVELOPED TO SHOW HOW GEOLOGY AND THE GLOBAL WARMING CYCLE CREATED OUR NATURAL RESOURCES
IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FORMATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES Amount of glacial ice is DOWN, (minimum) Sea levels go UP (400ft), (maximum) Oceans invade continents creating massive inland seas Amount Glacial ice is DOWN! Sea-level is UP! When temps are up: Map copyrighted by Dr. Ron Blakely, Professor Emeritus Northern Arizona Univ., Geology
Map copyrighted by Dr. Ron Blakely, Professor Emeritus Northern Arizona Univ., Geology 90mya 65 77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3
Map from Dr. Ron Blakely, Professor Emeritus Northern Arizona Univ., Geology 340mya 66 77F 50F 63F 500 400 300 200 100 50 MYA 3
As sea level rises, exposed continental landmass become smaller IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FORMATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES Amount Glacial ice is DOWN! Sea-level is UP!
As sea level rises, exposed continental landmass become smaller Larger surface area of exposed sea increases evaporation & subsequent rain fall Increased rainfall accelerates continental weathering & erosion IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FORMATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES Amount Glacial ice is DOWN ! Sea-level is UP !
Rivers carry erosion debris to continental margin; increased debris deposition at margin Warmer global temps encourages faster plant growth which leads to prolific swamps Warmer, shallow seas leads to tremendous reef systems IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FORMATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES Amount Glacial ice is DOWN ! Sea-level is UP !
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