Brazil: Cycles of (Gradual) - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Brazil: Cycles of (Gradual) Political Change

Max Cameron

Poli

332Slide2

Historical Periods

Monarchy rather than anarchy (1822-1891)

Late establishment of oligarchic republic (1891-1930)

Populism, Estado Novo and fragile democracy (1930-1964)

The bureaucratic-authoritarian state (1964-1985)

R

edemocratization

and moderate neoliberal reforms (1985-2002)

Left turn (and denouement) (2002-2016)Slide3

Stylized Facts

Monarchy

Oligarchy

Populism

BA state

Re-democratization

Agro-

export

economy

ISI &

Incorporation

Neoliberalism

Left turns

19

th C to 1930

1930-1960

1960-1980

Exhaustion of ISI

1980-2000

2000-

Left

turnSlide4

Colonial PeriodD

ifferences with the rest of the region:

Portugal less developed than Spain

Little emphasis on education, no printing press in Brazil

Slavery a dominant institution, not

completely abolished

until 1888Slide5

1. Independence and Monarchy, 1822

No period of anarchy. September

1822,

colonial ruler Pedro declared

independence. He was crowned Emperor Pedro I.

This

commencement of national life under the rule of the same individual who governed in the name of Portugal allowed Brazil to avoid the vacuum of legitimate authority that plagued the rest of the countries of the region.Slide6

Social Classes

Brazil was

dominated

by by the

landowners from the Northeast

, Rio

de Janerio, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. The export economy was dominated by agriculture (sugar, tobacco, cotton) and mining

(gold and diamonds). Local merchants formed a bourgeois nucleus, but played no role in

exports. Little manufacturing.Pyramidal, dualistic society: 95 percent of population (slaves, farmers, artisans) excludedSlide7

Politics under Monarchy

Conflict

between central authorities and

provinces

Two main parties:

Liberal

(based in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerias and Rio Grande do Sul) who supported decentralization and Conservatives (Bahia,

Pernambuco, Rio de Janerio) favored centralized bureaucracy. Gradual evolution towards a parliamentary constitutional monarchy

Paraguayan war (1865) won, but hurt monarchy and caused unrestSlide8

Excursus: Abolition of Slavery

1860s abolitions movement begin to gather widespread support.

1871: “Law of the Free Womb.” Free born child required to render service to the mother’s master until the age of twenty.

1885: “

Sexagenerian

Law.” Freed all slaves over 65. Slaves also resisted. By 1887 there were massive escapes from plantations, especially in Sao Paulo

1888: “Golden Law”.

The struggle ended officially, with the total and immediate abolition without compensation. Slide9

2. Establishment of Oligarchic Republic

November 1889,

junior

officers, lead a coup against the emperor.

The

transition from the empire

was not a social revolution and was virtually bloodless. Constitution of 1891: Brazil becomes a republic and oligarchic democracyMilitary plays larger roleMore decentralized

Pact among governorsThe economic autonomy of the states facilitated industrial development in regions such as Sao PauloRise of “Sao Paulo dynasty.” Sao Paulo coffee producers become leading element in the governing coalitionSlide10

Coronelismo

The republic did

not change the basic facts of life in traditional rural areas.

Colonelismo

was Brazil’s version of caudillo rule in rural areas

Rural political machines controlled to countryside.

Electoral fraud usually occurred in the countryside, where landowners hired agents manipulated semi-literate voters. Cooptation of middle sectors

through clientelism in the urban areasSlide11

Early Industrialization

Although the economy was based on raw material exports (

Coffee,

sugar

, cotton, rubber,

cacao) early industrialization occurred (even before World

War I, II, or the crash in 1929) Occurred at the same time as agro-export growth, under protective tariffsOver production of coffee (Brazil supplied most of the world market) caused a gradual shift towards

the investment in industrySlide12

Social QuestionGrowth of

industry

in the

1920s created opportunities

for better organization of the urban labor unions.

But unions remained weak and were targets or repression by employers and police

Migration from country to city, and international migrationSlide13

3. Populism under Getulio Vargas, (1930-1945, 1951-1954)

Vargas takes power after an armed rebellion and coup in 1929-30. End of oligarchy (landlords lose power). Introduces

Estado Novo

(a corporatist state)

Constitution of

1934Federal structureFree elections

Judicial independenceWelfareLabour codeVargas sought to accelerate

economic development, incorporate labor, strengthen state capacity, and encourage popular participation within corporatist structuresSlide14

Incorporation of Labor

Creation of two new Ministries:

Labor, Industry, and Commerce; Education and Health

Unions incorporated and controlled by the state.

1931

was created the law of unionization

– which allowed unions under the control of the ministry of work.

Creation of “leis trabalhistas”: Eight hour work, minimal wage, holidays, pension system and social security. Slide15

Development Strategy

Import

substitution

industrialization replaces coffee exports as economic driver

Industry declined then recovered in the 1930s

Rapid industrialization (5.4 percent)

from 1940-45. This was the

most striking accomplishment of Vargas era. Industrialization did not result in a sudden replacement of the dominant coffee led agricultural elite by the urban industrial sector or middle class.

Instead the end of the coffee oligarchy resulted in a state not exclusively serving the interests of any one socioeconomic sectorSlide16

End of Vargas’ Estado Novo

Removed by military in 1945

by coup

d'etat

End of World War II: victory of democratic forces around the worldUnited States that wanted Brazil have a government more attuned to their

interestsElections in 1945: re-establishment of representative institutions. New parties formed.Vargas makes come-back in 1950; 1954 commits suicide.Slide17

Populist Reformism and Moderate Perception of Threat (1956-1964

Kubitschek

(

developmentalist

) 1956-

61Joao Goulart’s (populist) 1961-64Agrarian reform

Nationalization of oilAgainst foreign investmentExtension of vote to illiteratesLimits on private property Educational reform

Fears of Communism in aftermath of Cuban revolutionSlide18

4. Moderately Repressive BA State (1964-1985)

BA State: Formation of a coup coalition

Relatively lower level of repression, maintained elections at state and local levels

Institutional Act no. 1. Law that established military rule

Alliance between military, technocrats, capitalists (local and international)

Emergence of weak guerrilla threat

Crisis of ISI during military rule, pursues deepening Brazil’s economy continues to be diversifiedSlide19

Hardliners vs. Softliners

Castello

Branco

: political

parties were dissolved.

Emilio

Garrstazu Medici (1969-1974) considered the most repressive. Ernesto

Geisel (1974-1979) was soft-liner. He announced the intention to slowly, gradually and sustained political openness process.

Baptista de Oliverira

Figueiredo (1979-85): Amnesty Law by decree. Allowing politicians, artists, and other exiled Brazilians to return. In

1979 government approved law allowing parties to re-organizeIn 1978 in Sao

Paulo. Emergence of LulaHuman rights becomes issue, especially for Catholic ChurchBusiness opposition to economic mismanagementSlide20

5. Redemocratization (1985-89)

Tancredo

Neves

elected 1985, died and was replaced by Jose

Sarney

(1985-89)

Constitution of 1989Congress served as constitutional assemblyFeatures of the constitutionLong & detailedSocial rights emphasized

Recognition of municipalitiesPolicy conferencesPresidential system with strong decree powers for the presidentSlide21

NeoliberalismNeoliberal period

brief and moderated

Fernando

Collor

de

Mello, 1989-

92Tried to launch ambitious plan to liberalize economy but was accused of corruption and impeached Itamar Franco, 1992-95 (caretaker)

Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1995-2002 Elected for popularity with Plan Real which brought inflation under control Cardoso stabilized the economy but Brazil was hit by the 1999 financial crisis and forced to devalueSlide22

The Key to Cardoso’s success?Slide23

Mild left turn: Lula of the Partido dos

Trabalhadores

(Workers’ Party or PT) elected 2002, governs until 2010;

Dilma

Rousseff 2010 –

2016Lula 2002: Although a product of the political left and grassroots movements, Lula moved to the center during his final campaign in order to draw support from

the urban middle class and the international communityLula embraced an orthodox monetary policy, meant to further economic stability, control inflation, and give the Central Bank autonomy, despite complaints of growing fiscal negligence.

The administration succeeded in winning Congress’ approval, albeit at the cost of losing part of his support base.

6. Brazil’s Left TurnSlide24

Participatory innovations

“Democracy

is more inclusive and participatory than ever before

.” –

Hagopian

(p. 124).Fome Zero food distribution program was

an operational failure, so Lula’s administration expanded Bolsa Familia , which rewarded poor

families for sending their children to school and providing inoculations.In the economy, President Lula successfully reduced poverty and boosted the minimum wage, practically eliminating the foreign debt and earning the trust of foreign investors.

Participatory budgeting (starts in Porto Alegre)Policy Conferences“Lava

Jato” scandal and backlashImpeachment of DilmaSlide25

LessonsLittle anarchy, mild repression: pattern of accommodation and bargaining, persistence of democracy at state and local levels

Gradualism: abolition, late onset of republic, late democratization, gradual re-democratization, mild left turn

Size: ISI and diversification

Major challenge: corruption and a weak state