Chris Hartshorn PhD Chief Research Officer Lux Executive Summit Asia October 21 2015 Agenda Madness and method Optimizing for money Controlling your information destiny 4 Method Many only had a ID: 335632
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Slide1
Innovation's Information Problem
Chris Hartshorn, Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
Lux Executive Summit Asia
October 21, 2015Slide2Slide3Slide4
Agenda
Madness and method
Optimizing for money
Controlling your information destiny
4Slide5
Method
Many only had a
moderately
high level of intelligence
All:
excelled in rule-based disciplines
had elevated AQ scores with respect to attention to detail
had an unlikely number of autistic relatives
All had
working memories in the 99
th percentile
5Slide6
Method and Madness?
Many only had a
moderately
high level of intelligence
All:
excelled in rule-based disciplines
had elevated AQ scores with respect to attention to detail
had an unlikely number of autistic relatives
All had
working memories in the 99
th percentile
Highly creative people have a lower than expected density of D2 receptors in the thalamus – the same as people with schizophreniaA lower degree of signal filtering..…leads to a barrage of uncensored information…
…ignites innovation.Thinking outside the box is easiest with a less intact box
6Slide7
Agenda
Madness and method
Optimizing for money
Controlling your information destiny
7Slide8
One view of the industrial innovation process
8Slide9
One view of the industrial innovation process
How do we optimize our R&D portfolio based on this?
9Slide10
Challenging
one view of the industrial innovation process
Is this the best we can do?
Is this even the enough data to decide?
10Slide11
Lux has been evaluating emerging technology developers for years…have we learned anything?
We looked at how effective our methodology has been in finding then evaluating start-up companies.
The process of down-selecting, then analyzing through the Lux Take improves overall probability of success by 5 to 7 times versus start-up companies overall
11Slide12
Lux has been evaluating emerging technology developers for years…have we learned anything?
The resulting scorecard also has individual metrics indicating up to four times the probability of a successful outcome.
These prognoses are statistically significance to at least 99% confidence in all cases
12Slide13
Get more insight from a higher quantity and granularity of data
What’s the asset we have in hand?
3,666 individual entities
analyzed since 2011 (although many on multiple occasions)
It’s all new to them:
Clean dynamics around new product development
Not blips in a BU swamp:
Clean financial metrics around the outcomes
Granularity
around the underlying factors
What should we optimize for?Money would be nice…a.k.a. How can new products reach profitability fastest and more consistently?
The proxy: Time to profitability from founding date of the developing company
13Slide14
The elusive goal: Accelerate the outcomes from R&D or see the inflexion points and act
14Slide15
Almost 20% of start-up companies currently five years or less since founding are profitable
15Slide16
Any patterns we can extract and try to replicate?
16Slide17
Quick success is more dependent on reaching out than what you have
17Slide18
Quick success is more dependent on reaching out than what you have
18Slide19
Quick success is more dependent on reaching out than what you have
19Slide20
A services mentality drives speed to profitability and a focus on partnerships
20Slide21
What about over the long haul?
21Slide22
So profitability going up over time as the bad weaker technology dies, right?
Low (1-2)
Medium (3)
High (4-5)
22
Technology ValueSlide23
As it turns out, the quality of technology is important eventually
23
Technology ValueSlide24
The services model drives profitability early, but eventually becomes less critical
24Slide25
For simplicity’s sake…a unified view
25
Lux TakeSlide26
Better metrics to review success are the basis for better metrics to predict it
26Slide27
Drilling down into resources, specifically water
27Slide28
Doing the walk on water
22
t
0
Water technology developers profiled in 2009
Not yet profitable
High technology value
At least a ‘Positive’ take
22 entities matching this description
?
t
0
+ 5 years
28Slide29
Doing the walk on water
22
Not Profitable
Profitable
29
t
0
t
0
+ 5 yearsSlide30
The elusive goal: Accelerate the outcomes from R&D or know the inflexion points and act
30Slide31
Right place, right time?
22
Not Profitable
Profitable
t
ave
= 11.0
Technology
4.2
Competitive Landscape
2.7
Partnerships
3.0
Management
Team
3.4
Technology
3.8
Competitive Landscape
2.3
Partnerships
3.4
Management
Team
3.8
31
t
ave
= 6.4Slide32
Can we use and optimize for venturing?
32Slide33
The best backlog of derisked ideas
33Slide34
Making the odds always in our favor
6-10 years since founding…
…with strong technology…
…and a ‘Lux Take’ of Positive or better
34Slide35
Making the odds always in our favor
35Slide36
Dialing up the risk profile by industry
36Slide37
Dialing up the risk profile by industry
37Slide38
Dialing up the risk profile by industry
38Slide39
Dialing up the risk profile by industry
39Slide40
Making the odds always in our favor
Name
Description
Sells Products
Provides Services
Licenses Tech
TyraTech
Biopesticides targeting biological receptors unique to insects and invertebrates
Trana
Discovery
Anti-viral, anti-microbial, and anti-fungal discovery platform for human health and agricultural applications
Force-A
Agricultural sensor developer and diagnostic services provider
aWhere
Global weather information and data management platforms for agriculture
Arcadia Biosciences
Development and deregulation of crop genetics for stress tolerance
Oxitec
Genetically modified insects for control of agricultural pests and mosquito-borne illnesses
Senesco
RNAi
approaches to enhanced plant growth, stress tolerance, and disease resistance
Primus Green Energy
Catalytic conversion of
syngas
to gasoline
LUX Assure
Ensuring optimal corrosion inhibitor dosage for oilfield applications
Velocys
Microchannel
reactors and catalysts for small-scale liquid fuel production
Synodon
Airborne detection of leaks and imagery of oil and gas assets
40Slide41
Agenda
Madness and method
Optimizing for money
Controlling your information destiny
41Slide42
Innovation's Information Problem
Chris Hartshorn, Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
Lux Executive Summit Asia
October 21, 2015Slide43
Innovation's Information Problem
Information's Innovation Opportunity
Chris Hartshorn, Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
Lux Executive Summit Asia
October 21, 2015Slide44
Dialing up the working memory
Many only had a
moderately
high level of intelligence
All:
excelled in rule-based disciplines
had elevated AQ scores with respect to attention to detail
had an unlikely number of autistic relatives
All had
working memories in the 99
th percentile
44Slide45
Dialing up the working memory
Leverage the learning of others
45Slide46
Dialing up the working memory
Leverage the learning of others
46Slide47
Dialing up the working memory
47
Leverage the learning of othersSlide48
Dialing down the D2 receptors in the corporate business development thalamus
Highly creative people have a lower than expected density of D2 receptors in the thalamus – the same as people with schizophrenia
A lower degree of signal filtering..
…leads to a barrage of uncensored information…
…ignites innovation.
Thinking outside the box is easiest with a less intact box
48Slide49
Dialing down the D2 receptors in the corporate business development thalamus
Less signal filtering…operate in a less intact box
Information generation
Services business models
49Slide50
Dialing down the D2 receptors in the corporate business development thalamus
Invest in it:
50Slide51
Invest in it:
Dialing down the D2 receptors in the corporate business development thalamus
51
Technology Bets
IT PlatformsSlide52
Invest in it:
Dialing down the D2 receptors in the corporate business development thalamus
52Slide53
Dialing down the D2 receptors in the corporate business development thalamus
Invest in it:
Acquire it:
53Slide54
Summary
A services culture drives partnerships, partnerships drive speed to profitability of new products
An increasing number of high potential concepts merge information and matter.
Consistent methodology enables analysis of innovation and a higher chance of making the right bets
54Slide55
Thank you
Chris Hartshorn, Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
chris.hartshorn@luxresearchinc.com
+
1.617.502.5313