Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

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Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran




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Presentations text content in Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

Slide1

Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

Jon Wolfsthal

Deputy Director CNS

US Institute for Peace – June 10, 2014

Slide2

US-Iranian Ties/Tensions Have a Long History

1950s with Overthrow of Iranian PM Mossadegh1960s - 1970s US Support for Shah1979 – Iranian Hostage Crisis - 4441980s – Iran Iraq War, Use of Chemical Weapons against Iran2003 – Axis of Evil/Regime Change

Long time to get to this point, will take time to genuinely

improve relations, build trust if at all possible

Slide3

Building Trust Via Nuclear Agreement is Hard

We Tried Before in North Korea – 1994 Deal Failed

Who Wants a Cookie?

Lack of Trust on Both Sides

Political Deck Stacked Against Compromise on

B

oth Sides

Time Not Currently Working for US Security

Front Loaded Deal Not Reliable/Viable, So We Are Pursuing Step-by-Step

Has its

O

wn

R

isks

Slide4

Why So Long?

Deal is About “Regaining

C

onfidence” in Iran’s Intentions

Some Nuclear Capacity is Permanent, Regardless of Policy

We Have Good Reason to Doubt Them

How Do We Know When They Have Stopped?

Japan, South Korea, Others Still Suspected

We Needs Years of Compliance by Multiple Governments and Under Enhanced Transparency to See if a Deal is Working

Iran’s Nuclear Needs are Small, Gives us an Opportunity to Engage, Build Incentives for a Deal to Stick

We Are Betting that Iran Wants a Deal More Than a Nuclear

P

rogram

Slide5

Why Not Forever?

This is Not Iraq

Iran Not a Vanquished State

Seeking to Maintain a Fallacy of Nuclear Purity

They

W

ill Have to Admit Something

Inspections/Sanctions are Not Going to be Like Iraq After 1991

Would be Great,

N

ot Going to Happen

Iran Wants an End State of Normalcy, Gives US Negotiating Leverage

Slide6

Phasing

Linking Increased Enrichment and Sanctions Relief to Milestones

Major Sanctions Relief Up Front Builds Incentives to Comply

Something New to Take Away?

Resolution of Nuclear Past

Prioritize What Matters

Greater Nuclear Demand without Foreign Supply

Outside Supply and Fuel Bank as

O

ff Ramps

Years of Full Compliance

Subjective – Art of Negotiating

Slide7

Pitfalls (Bet On Them)

Allegations of Secret Facilities – Inevitable

Israel, MEK, US Sources

Allegations of Weapons Work Ongoing

What Happens to the People?

Efforts to Impose

N

on-

N

uclear Sanctions by US

Missile, Human Rights, Terrorism

Let’s Not Forget Who We Are Dealing With

What is Worth Losing an Agreement Over?

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