Throwing Light On the Future Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World By Beatrice Shepherd Agenda for Mega Trends Presentation Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future ID: 573447
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Slide1
1
November 2011
Throwing Light On the Future:
Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World
By
Beatrice ShepherdSlide2
Agenda for Mega Trends Presentation
Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends
Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future
Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors and Smart Cities“Smart” is the New Green
Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Age Group 15-34 Years, The Middle BulgeTechnology: Top 50 Technologies, Space Jam, World War 3, Personal Robots, Virtual World and
Haptic Technology, Future Smart MobilityInnovating to Zero !E-MobilityInfrastructure Development: Trans Siberian Rail, High Speed Rail in United States, Infrastructure Development in AfricaNew Business Models: Value for Many
Economy: Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers, Economic Engines for Growth in Africa
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
Key Strategic Conclusions
How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies
Question & Answer SessionSlide3
Definition of a Mega Trend
What is a Mega Trend?
Impact of Mega Trends on Key Organisational Functions
Mega Trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change Slide4
Top Mega Trends of the FutureSlide5
UrbanisationSlide6
Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 8 Million and GDP of $250 Million in 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega Cities in 2025)
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-
Toria
”)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population 120 Million)Slide7
Mega Corridors in 2050
Global Snapshot of Future Mega Corridors Connecting Two Or More Mega Cities or Mega Regions
Evolution of Megacities: Mega Corridors (World), 2050
Northern and Southern California Corridor
Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou Corridor:
Home to 120 Million People
Tokyo- Osaka Corridor:
Home to 90 Million People
São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro
Corridor:
Home to 50+ Million People
Golden Quadrilateral in India connecting Mumbai-Delhi-Kolkata-Chennai: 5,846 km
Ibadan-Lagos-Accra Urban Corridor: 600 Kilometers
Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) serving entire Europe
Cascadia
Arizona Sun Corridor
Front Range Corridor
The Texas Triangle
Great Lakes Corridor
Florida Corridor
Piedmont Atlantic
North East Corridor
(BOSWASH)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Dubai – Abu Dabi CorridorSlide8
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities
Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Treasure Island
Boulder
Arcosanti
Coyote Springs
Destiny
Babcock Ranch
Vancouver
Toronto
San Francisco
Portland
Seattle
Curitiba
Montreal
Bogota
St
Davids
Clonburris
Göteborg
Hammarby Sjöstad
London
Barcelona
Reykjavik
Oslo
Freiburg
Stockholm
Paris
Copenhagen
Kochi
GIFT
Cape Town
Dongtan
Tianjin
Changsha
Khajuraho
Meixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z.
Singapore City
Songdo
Moreland, Australia
Amsterdam
Masdar
Legend
Source: Frost & Sullivan
ParedesSlide9
Why is this Important? Because Cities - Not Countries - Will Drive Wealth Creation in the Future
What are the Micro Implications ?
High Economic Power
With 85% of Scientific and Technology Innovation from These Cities
Hub and Spoke Business Model
will
evolve with Logistics, Healthcare, Retail and many other industries
New Mobility Solutions
like
Bike and car sharing,
Transit oriented development and zoning
The extension of transit lines to the suburbs will move businesses out of the central downtown to the suburbs
Social Polarization: High Gap Between Rich and Poor
A highly diverse and dynamic socio-economic-cultural mix
Techno savvy and connected citizens with high speed broadband, 4G technologies and free Wi-Fi to enable connectivity 24X7.
Fast Forward City Facts: Did You Know?.....
Over
60% of Worlds Population to Live in Cities by 2020
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.Slide10
With 10.8 M Population and GDP of $425 B in 2025,
Seoul Will Be a Key Business Hub in Asia
Why Seoul?
Seoul to account for 50% of South Korea’s GDP in 2025
Seoul to receive around $4 billion in FDI annually by 2025
Seoul to have highest Broadband Penetration Rate in the World in 2025 at 60% (currently highest at 34.4% - 2010 with second lowest price of $0.08)Mobile Ownership to increase to 150% in 2025 (currently 101% -2010)Seoul has a robust retail sector with 25,000 shops open 24X7 (2010) In future, Seoul is expected to be connected by land with Mainland China, Siberia and Europe.Industrial clusters have already formed in Gangnam , the downtown area , Yeoungdeungpo
.
5 Pronged Vision of Seoul’s Metropolitan Government for 2025
Source:Seoul.gov.krSlide11
Seoul: The Hub Vision to House Facilities and Infrastructure for 6 Growth Engines in 2025:
Digital Media, ICT, Biotech, Fashion, Finance and Tourism
Digital Media City(DMC) Scheduled to Be Completed in 2015 is slated to be the World’s First Media Complex . Project cost is around $3 billion
$28 billion
Yongsan
International Business District development project will open new paradigms of urban development and intl. business in 2016Slide12
“Smart” is the New “Green”Slide13
“Smart” is the New Green
Smart Cities
Smart Technology
Smart Infrastructure
Smart Energy
Smart Mobility
Smart Buildings
Smart Grids
Smart Clouds
Smart Materials
Smart Bandages
Smart Phones
Smart MetersSlide14
Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN: “Flexibility in Capacity” And “Robotic Technology” Combined with Artificial Intelligence
Current Plant
Material Handling conveyer
Mixing Plant
Processing Plant
Heating Plant
Batching & Blending
Plant
Cleaning Plant
Packaging Shop
Waste Water
Processing Plant
Separation Plant
Quality Plant
Chilling Plant
Drying Chamber
Material Handling conveyer
Mixing & Processing Plant
Heating Plant
Batching & Blending
Plant
Cleaning Plant
Packaging Shop
Future Plant
Waste Water
Processing Plant
Separation Plant
Quality Plant
Chilling Plant
Drying Chamber
Work Simulation
10% decrease in production time; 30%
savings in project cost; 20% reduction in
manual labour; Reduced CO2 emissions
Remote Support and Diagnosis of Production Equipment, Virtual Reality based maintenance and Planning
LV and MV drives coupled with energy efficient products
Premium efficiency class motors, pumps and compressors; all requiring low voltage drives
Factory of the future will Lower Production Costs and shorten Innovation and Production Cycles
SMART Factory 2020
FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Current Sensing
Cloud Computing
Digital Factory
Mobile Applications
OELD Displays
Reduced Complexity
Software as a Service
Software configurable hardware
Sustainability
VirtualizationSlide15
“Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition
IT Players
Automation/Building Control Players
Energy/Infrastructure
Players
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
IP Networks
Digital Technology
Analysis Software
Wireless Communication
Technology Integration
Network Security
Etc.
T&D Technology
Power Electronics
Renewable Energy
Integrated Distribution Management
Substation Automation
AMI-Enabled Metering
Etc.
Building Automation
Demand-Side Management
Connectivity of devices
Monitoring and Sensing
Smart Grid Integration
Etc.
Point of ConvergenceSlide16
Social TrendsSlide17
Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020
Used For:
Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events
Used For:
Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts
Used For:
Local Real Estate News, Geo Socialising with Friends
Used For:
Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and OffersSlide18
Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Population Between 15-34 years (Gen Y today) - Around 61% from Asia Alone
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Note: Gen Y: Population between 15 – 34 Years
2010
2020
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 Billion
Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
Population in BillionSlide19
Age Group 15-34 Years: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalization and Individualization
Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7
Civic and Environmentally Friendly
Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”
Personalized Search and News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalized Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)Slide20
The Middle Bulge: Middle Class Will Account for 52% of Global Population in 2020.
Over 65% of the Middle Class Population are from Africa, China and India in 2020
China
CEE
LA
Rest of Asia
ME
India
Africa
Percent of Global Middle Class Across Developing Regions in 2020
Note: The Middle Class in the graph are defined as people with Incomes between
$6,000 and $
30,000 found in developing regions.
However, this definition differs marginally from country.
Global Income Pyramid, 2010 and 2020
2010
2020
$6,000
$30,000Slide21
TechnologySlide22
TechVision 2020 – Top 50 Technology WebSlide23
SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
By 2020, there will be approximately
927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D 75)Slide24
World War 3: With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflict
Space
Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, Astronauts
Air
ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, Airmen
NavalCombat Platforms, Communications, ISR, Transport, Sailors
Land
Combat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, Soldiers
Information Environment
Physical, Cognitive, Informational DimensionsSlide25
Future Personal Robots: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will “Act as a Butler” in Everyday Life
Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business
Robots for Companionship
Robots as Pets
Robots for Household Chores
Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot
Robots as Waiters
Robots as NanniesSlide26
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes
Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips
to Different Countries and Planets
Virtual Surgeries
and Medical Training
Virtual Business Conferences
Social Networking: 3D Avatars
Enabling People to Lead Multiple LivesSlide27
Intuitive
Haptic
Gaming Experiences
“
Holodecks
”: F-16 Flight Simulator
Wearable Computing: Gestural Interfaces Are Being Developed that Allows Humans to Interact and Augment Physical World with Digital Data
Fluid Interfaces: Haptic Technology Enabling Seamless, Gestural, Intuitive and Ambient Interaction Between Physical and Virtual Realms
Source: MIT Media Group, 2010
Haptic
Entertainment Experiences
Surface Computers: Browsing of Internet on Any Surface Through Gestures
Applications of Wearable Computing: Using Hand as a Keypad or Dial PadSlide28
The Future of SMART Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and ‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure
Car Sharing
: technology to locate, reserve and unlock nearest car on mobile, provide info via apps/GPS
Source: ETSI
Congestion Charging:
technology migration from ANPR – Tag& Beacon – GPS, and advanced payment and info on mobile
Connectivity
: opportunity for built, bought & beamed in, providing a hybrid open architecture service and network
comms
Commercial Vehicle
Telematics
: Vehicle/driver management, and on board tracking, computer, navigation
V2V
: ANPR, DSRC, vehicle positioning
EVs IT
: grid/energy management, billing systems,
comms
& cloud
RTI
: Ticketing, scheduling, CCTV and incident management, UTMC integration
Smart Ticketing/AFC
: Innovative payment, integration with RTI
LMS
: Signalling, infotainment, diagnostics, energy management &GPS
Source: ETSISlide29
Innovating to ZeroSlide30
“Innovating To ZERO”: Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero Emissions from Cars
Zero Accidents
Zero Breaches of Security
Zero Crime Rates
Zero Waste/
Emissions
Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)
Zero Defects
Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores
Carbon Neutral Cities
Zero
Obese PatientsSlide31
Case Study: Copenhagen to be World’s First Carbon Neutral City by 2025
THE GOAL
20% Reduction in CO
2 (2005-2015) (reduction of 500,000 tonnes)
THE VISION (2025)
No Net CO2 emissions by 2025First Carbon Neutral City Integrating Climate into Energy Supply
Greener Transport
Energy Efficient Buildings
Copenhageners
and Climate
Urban Development
375,000 tonnes
50,000 tonnes
50,000 tonnes
20,000 tonnes
5,000 tonnes
7 Energy Initiatives
These include:
Use of Biomass In Power Stations
Building Wind Turbines
Upgrading District Heating Network
Increasing Dependence on Geo Thermal Energy
15 Transport Initiatives
These include:
Developing bicycling and walking options
Increasing Public transport
Incentives for Electric and Hydrogen Powered Cars
Car Sharing, Car Pooling
TARGET
ACTION AREAS
10 Building Initiatives
These include:
Upgrade of Buildings to Improve Ventilation, Temperature Controls, Lighting and Noise Levels
Improve Energy Conservation in Buildings
9 Copenhageners Initiatives
These include:
Reduction of Electricity Consumption
Minimise Waste Reduction
Waste Recycling
4 Urban Development Initiatives
These include:
Integrating Green Concepts into Urban
Energy Smart Choices in Transport, BuildingsSlide32
E-MobilitySlide33
E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
XM 3000 Electric Moped
Sanyo Enacle
The GEM Peapod
The Smith Newton
Total 30 million –
2 Wheelers
(2020)
Total 10 Million –
4 Wheelers
(2020) Slide34
Electric Vehicle Market Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields
Could work to improve charging time and safety
Infrastructure supplier
Key Responsibility:
Development of Charging Infrastructure
Key Responsibility:
Promotion of EV use
Utilities
Integrators
OEMs
System/Battery Manufacturers
Government
Charging Station Manufacturers
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs and Government
Supplies infrastructure to distribute their energy
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Development of performing batteriesSlide35
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Charge Payment Program / Subscription based services
Manufacturing & Sales
Increase efficiency of Underutilized Off-Peak Power – providing more stability to the grid
Extended E-mobility solution e.g. vehicle sharing
Selling E-Mobility solutions based on energy Subscription Packages
Possible Revenue Streams worth evaluating
Charging Stations
Batteries
E-Mobility Vehicles
Electricity
Telematics
& other value added services
Services
Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered By An Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
Installation & Maintenance
Revenues from Diagnostic, Music Downloads and Garage Referrals via charging stations
Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy
Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging
Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging
Smart Metering
Battery Leasing Model
Refurbishing
Recycling
Battery 2
nd
life applications – sales and maintenance
Battery Swapping
Battery based business models extended to 2-Wheelers and other E-mobility solutions
Battery Integration – from cell to stack combined with complete thermal engineering and safety reqt.
Offering After-Sales services – linking with OEMs and setting up suitable repair or diagnostic clinics
Market green solutions such as Solar panels, wind turbines and CNHG to E-Mobility client base
Substantiate and move forward with investment in renewable energy such as wind farms and gain carbon credits
Recycling and Refurbishing of E-Mobility vehicles and related mechanical and electronic components
Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging
Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy
Subscription based Energy service Scheme
Data Aggregator ( working with other partners)
Battery management services
Advanced booking of charging stations
Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Grid Communication
Added value service (POIs, Diagnostics, etc) Slide36
Infrastructure DevelopmentSlide37
Moscow
Nizhny Novgorod
St. Petersburg
Yekaterinburg
Novosibirsk
Krasnoyarsk
Irkutsk
Khabarovsk
Vladivostok
Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network
Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Yekaterinburg
Severka
Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia
● Astrakhan
Kiev
●
Kaliningrad
Minsk
● Helsinki
●
Berezoviy
Verhnya
Pyshma
Koltsovo
Shyrokaya
Rechka
●
ITC North South
Trans-Siberian Railway
Pan European N 2
Pan European N 9
Baikal-Amur Mainline
(Warsaw, Berlin)
(Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis)
SredneuralskSlide38
High Speed Rail Market Overview Globally : Spain, China and USA are Top 3 Investors in New Rail Infrastructure with Combined $263 B in the Next 10 Years
High-Speed Rail Market: Country-wise
cumulative
investments on rail infrastructure
(Global), 2011 to 2020$70 Billion$824 Billion2011
Only USA
ME
SA
NA
APAC
EU
2011 to 2020
EU
APAC
Turkey
Switzerland
Sweden
Spain
Russia
Portugal
Poland
Italy
Germany
France
China
India
Japan
South Korea
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
GCC
Brazil
Argentina
ME
SA
NA
APAC
EU
Europe, $338 Billion
Asia Pacific, $166 Billion
Middle East & Africa, $107 Billion
South America, $87 Billion
North America, $137 Billion
*Note: Figures are cumulative
Note: All figures are rounded, the base year is 2010 Source: Frost & SullivanSlide39
High Speed Rail to Come to US
Overview of 13 High-Speed Rail Corridors Across 31 States
Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)
California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years
Impact to Personal Mobility and Auto Industry
Transit oriented developmentAir travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link citiesTrain operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharingWill take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distanceAttractive cities for car sharing Small city car sales will grow in these citiesSlide40
Infrastructure Spending in Africa to Total $1.1 Trillion from 2005 to 2030: Power To Account for 45% of the Investment
The expenditure needed for infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa amounts to 15% of the region’s GDP.
Power
Required investment
$0.5 Trillion
% of Total spend
45%
Water
Required Investment
$0.2 Trillion
% of Total spend
18%
Total Infrastructure Spend
Total investment required
$ 1.1 Trillion
More than 60% of this expenditure is funded by African sources including private companies and taxpayers
Total Infrastructure Spending (Africa), 2005 -2030
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Road / Retail
Required investment
$0.3 Trillion
% of Total spend
27%
Air /Seaports
Required Investment
$0.1 Trillion
% of Total spend
9%Slide41
Africa
Will Not Be the
Blackout Continent: From 70% of
Sub-Saharan Population Without Electricity In 2010 To 70% With Electricity in 2020
Sources:Earth at Night, NASA.gov
With equal population levels, Africa & India show a very different face at nightBusiness opportunity: Bring light into communities -350 million people in Africa aloneSlide42
New Business ModelsSlide43
New Business Models of the Future
Sharing Model:
Eg
. Car Sharing
Collaborative Buying and Crowd Sourcing:
Eg
.
Groupon
Value for Many:
Eg
.
Aravind
Eye Care Hospital
Personalization and Individualization
Eg
. My M&M’sSlide44
New Business Models of the Future: “Value for Many”
“Value for Many” Will Replace “Value for Money”
Tata
Nano
: The People’s Car At Low Price (Rs 1
Lakh or €1,600)
Aravind
Eye Hospital: Conducts 286,000 Assembly-Line type Cataract Operations per year
EChoupal
Initiative by ITC: Leveraging Internet to Empower 4 Million Farmers
Grameen
Bank: Microfinance Bank for the 8.34 Million Borrowers in Bangladesh (97% Women)
Ford Business Model Slide45
Value Proposition:
Don’t know what’s wrong?
– We can address any problem you bring
Value Proposition:Need care for a specific condition?
– Specialists, experience, world-class facilities
General Hospital
Focused Specialized Hospital
Innovation in Hospital Business Models
Trends towards specialized care delivery around specific therapeutic areas (targeted service lines, etc.)
Emergence of "medical cities", in the Middle East, India, APAC
Specialized facilities tied to development of medical tourism in some countriesSlide46
EconomySlide47
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers in 2020
India: $4,216 Billion
China: $15,264 Billion
Russia: $4,243 Billion
Brazil: $4,004 Billion
Egypt: $448 Billion
Mexico: $1,887 Billion
Indonesia: $1,751 Billion
The Philippines: $386 Billion
BRIC Countries
Next Game Changers includes: Mexico, Argentina, Poland, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam
Turkey: $1,577 Billion
Vietnam: $254 Billion
Note: The figure denotes GDP at market prices
Poland: $836 Billion
South Africa: $620 Billion
Argentina: $964 BillionSlide48
Africa’s Largest Economies and Engines of Growth in 2020
South Africa
GDP: $620 billion ($357.2 billion in 2010)
Egypt
GDP: $448.9 billion ($218.84billion in 2010)
Nigeria
GDP: $510.5 billion ($206.6 billion in 2010)
Algeria
GDP: $310 billion ($158.9 billion in 2010)
Morocco
GDP $175 billion ($91.7 billion in 2010)
Angola
GDP: $201 billion (86 billion in 2010)
Sudan
GDP: $162.3 in billion ($65.9 billion in 2010)
Kenya
GDP: $81.0 billion (32.4 billion in 2010)
Ghana
GDP: $47.5 billion ($18.0 billion in 2010)
Source
: Frost & Sullivan and International Monetary Fund Database, 2010
Note: The figure denotes GDP at market prices in 2020
The figure in brackets denotes GDP at market prices in 2010Slide49
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and WellbeingSlide50
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being
Mind
Body
Soul
Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Personal values
Personal fulfilment
Self image / self actualisation
Sight / vision
Touch & feel
Smell / breathing
Sound
Temperature
WellnessSlide51
Due to rising costs of healthcare, future spending will move away from treatment
Health and Wellness
Shift in Healthcare Trends: From Treatment to Prevention
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
Healthcare Spending Per Capita (2007, 2050)
In most countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income which is unsustainable
If current trends hold - by 2050, healthcare spending will double, claiming 20-30% of GDP for some economies
Prevention trends result in greater demand for areas such as weight management and functional foods and beverages Slide52
Health & Wellness
Towards Better Health and Disease Prevention (Functional Foods)
Over the next 10 years, weight management, heart health, and digestive health will continue to be the high growth sectors
The need for prevention and better general health has driven the demand for functional F&B products and consequently the market for specific functional ingredients
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Revenues in $ Mn
Global Weight Management Ingredients
CAGR 2008-2015: 9.2%
Revenues in $ Mn
CAGR 2008-2015: 21.3%
Revenues in $ Mn
CAGR 2007-2015: 25.6%
US Digestive Health Ingredients Market
US Heart Health Ingredients Market
Slide53
Key Strategic ConclusionsSlide54
Key Strategic Conclusions
Mega Trends are connected and intertwined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them
It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability
All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities
These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decadeOrganisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunitiesIt is important to build a healthy eco-system around your opportunity related to a mega trend as it can be a source of competitive advantage and raise barriers to entry (e.g. App store advantage vs Google)Slide55
From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact
Mega Trend
Selected Trends That Impact Your Business And Markets
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro Economic Forecasts
Example: Urbanisation, Satellites
Example: Three concepts of urbanisation will emerge: megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public places/cities
Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City Cars, Car sharing,
New Technology Opportunities – Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio
Example: Mega City electric cars with small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless switching from home to car
Example: People in future will need “personal mobility” not necessarily cars to commute to work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport including cars
Macro
Micro