we have the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of distant peoples and past peoples Thats an opportunity that no past society enjoyed to such a degree My hope in writing this book has been that enough people will choose to profit from that opportunity to make a difference ID: 726697
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Slide1
Diamond
Fall 2018Slide2
Diamond Concluding Reflections
“
…
we have the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of distant peoples and past peoples. That’s an opportunity that no past society enjoyed to such a degree. My hope in writing this book has been that enough people will choose to profit from that opportunity to make a difference.
”
(p. 525)Slide3
Diamond’s 12 Global Problems of
Non-Sustainability
Diamond, J. (2005).
Collapse
, NY: Penguin
Books, pp 486-512Slide4
Natural Habitats
Destroying natural habitats and converting them to human-made habitats (cities, farms, roads, golf courses)Slide5
Wild Foods
2. Wild foods such as fish and shellfish contribute a large fraction of protein for 2 billion people but are not managed sustainably
(tragedy of the commons Chapters 14 and 15)Slide6
Wild Species Lost
3. Significant Fraction of wild species, populations and genetic diversity has already been lost and a large fraction will be lost in the next half-century
(similar to E.O.
Wilson)Slide7
Soil Depletion
Soils of farmlands used for growing crops are being carried away by water and wind erosion at rates between 10 and 40 times rates of soil formation.Slide8
Future of Energy
5. The world’s major energy sources, especially for industrial societies, are fossil fuels, oil, natural gas, and coal. Readily accessible reserves of oil and natural gas will last for a few more decades.Slide9
Freshwater Over-demand
Most of the world’s freshwater in rivers and lakes is already being utilized. Freshwater underground aquifers are being depleted faster than they are being discharged.Slide10
Sunlight Photosynthetic Ceiling
7. Sunlight is not infinite. Earth’s capacity to grow crops and wild plants also is not infinite. The amount of solar energy fixed per acre by plant photosynthesis, hence plant growth per acre, depends on temperature and rainfall. In 1986 the first calculation of photosynthetic ceiling estimated already used half of the word’s photosynthetic capacity (crops, tree planting, golf courses etc.) or wasted (sunlight falling on concrete, roads for buildings). With the increase in population and population impact (see point 12 below), most of the world’s photosynthetic capacity will be used by 2050 A.D.Slide11
RISK:
Most energy fixed from sunlight will be used for human purposes and little will be left over to support the growth of natural plant communities such as natural forests.Slide12
Toxic Chemicals
8. The chemical industry and many other industries manufacture or release into the air, soil, oceans, lakes and rivers.Slide13
Alien Species
9. These are transferred intentionally (cows) or inadvertently which devastate natural populations.Slide14
Atmospheric Gases
10. Human activities either release gases which harm the ozone layer or contribute to the buildup of greenhouse gases.Slide15
Global Population Growth
11. The population of the world is growing but unevenly around th
e world. There is disagreement among experts over whether global population will stabilize and in what time frame
.Slide16
Population Impact on Environment
12. A critical issue is, beyond population numbers, the cumulative impact of global population on the environment: consumption of resources and generation of waste. This is highest in the developed world and lowest in the developing world.Slide17
Diamond’s Commentary
These twelve sets of problems are not separate from each other. In fact, they are linked: one problem exacerbates another or makes it solution more difficult.
“They are like time bombs with fuses of less
than 50 years.”
(p. 490)
Diamond, J. (2005).
Collapse
, NY: Penguin
BooksSlide18
Application of Diamond to Los Angeles and Southern California
Southern California over 40 years has changed in ways that make it less appealing .
By world standards, environmental problems are relatively mild.
This is not an area in risk of imminent societal collapse
.Slide19
Incurable traffic
Related to growing and already high population with few centers of employment and high cost of housing with limited housing near employment centersSlide20
Contribution to per-Capita
Impact on the EnvironmentSlide21
Leading Contributor to the Energy Crisis
Preferences for single family homes rather than high rises;
l
ong-distance commutes;
i
mpossible to design effective public transportation—therefore dependent on cars.Slide22
Poor Air Quality
Area ranks near the bottom for air quality
.Slide23
Habitat Management
Fire risk
People living close to scrub woodlands, steep terrain and canyons
Controlled burns as prevention would be dangerous in dense populations areasSlide24
Soil Pollution
From salinization as a result of irrigationSlide25
Increased Competition for Water Supplies
Especially between cities and farmers
Loss of snow pack
Competition over reduced supply between 7 western statesSlide26
Collapse of Fisheries
Abalone in So. California
Sardines in No. CaliforniaSlide27
Loss of Biodiversity
This is across both land—(birds such as the California Quail and the Roadrunner), amphibians (California Newt and California Tree Frog), and oceans (Sea Otters)Slide28
Is the Golden Bear extinct?
Yes
No
Don’t know enoughSlide29
Economy and Quality of Life
Under mined by environment and population problems
water shortages
p
ower shortages
garbage accumulations
school crowding
housing shortages and price rises
traffic congestion
air qualitySlide30
Will water shortages be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide31
Will power shortages be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide32
Will garbage accumulation be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide33
Will school crowding be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide34
Will housing shortages
and price rises be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide35
Will traffic congestion be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide36
Will air quality be a greater or lesser problem by the time you are 50 years of age?
Greater
The Same
LesserSlide37
Diamond Reconciling Uncertainties
About the Future
Fact: Most environmental problems involve
detailed uncertainties that are legitimate
subjects fore debate
Fact: Some reasons to dismiss the important of
environmental problems are not fully informed
Is this true?
A: Yes
B: No
C: Not certainSlide38
“Technology will solve our problems”
1. Technology has solved more problems than it
created in the recent past
2. Technology will function in the future to solve
existing problems and cease to create new
problems.
Is this true?
A: Yes
B: No
C: Not certainSlide39
“If we exhaust one resource, we can always switch to some other resource.”
Is this true?
A: Yes
B: No
C: Not certainSlide40
Diamond says:
Unforeseen difficulties and long transitions times
Wind and solar have limited applicability
Energy sources other than fossil fuels will come but they will take timeSlide41
“There really isn’t a world food problem
…
”
Reasons:
Better transportation
GMO and green revolution
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide42
“Conditions have been getting better for decades.”
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide43
Diamond
: This
is true for First World countries
Billions of Third World citizens still live in poverty.Slide44
Gloom and Doom predictions of fear-mongering environmentalists have been proven wrong.
Why believe them now?”
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide45
Diamond: Real complaints is false alarms
Environmentalist warnings have proven too conservative. “The world can accommodate human population growth indefinitely. The more people, the better, because more people mean more inventions and ultimately more wealth.”
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide46
Diamond Fact
: The only country which is on both the list of the largest amount of wealth per person and the list of countries with the most people is the United States.
Diamond Fact
: The countries with the largest populations are disproportionately poor:
8 of 10 have per capita GNP of under $8,000
5 of 20 have per capita GNP of under $3,000
Diamond Fact
: The affluent countries have disproportionately few people:
7 of 10 have populations below 9 million
2 of 10 have populations below 500,000Slide47
“
Environmental concerns are a luxury affordable just by affluent First World yuppies who have no business telling desperate Third World Citizens what they should be doing
.”
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide48
Diamond’s opinion:
People in the Third World know very well how they are being harmed by population growth, deforestation, overfishing, and other problems.
“
If those environmental problems become desperate, it will be at some time far off in the future, after I die, and I can’t take them seriously
.”
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide49
Diamond’s opinion:
All of the dozen environmental problems will become acute within the lifetime of current young adults
“
There are big differences between modern societies and those past societies of Eastern Islanders, Maya, and
Anastazi
who collapsed, so that we can’t straightforwardly apply lessons from the past.
”
Is this true?
Yes
No
Not certainSlide50
Diamond’s opinion:
Best predictors of modern “state failures”
r
evolution
violent regime change
collapse of authority
genocideSlide51
Diamond’s opinion:
These predictors are measures of environmental and population pressure
i
nfant mortality
rapid population growth
high percentage of population in teens and 20s
unemployed young men
recruitable
in militias
s
hortages of land, water, forest, fish, oil and mineralsSlide52
Diamond’s opinion:
Results are
Chronic internal conflict
emigration of political and economic refugees
authoritarian regimes attack neighbors to divert attention from internal stressorsSlide53
Diamond’s Cautious Optimism Based Reasons for Hope
If we don’t make a determined effort, the world will face a declining standard of living
We shall be able to solve our problems if we choose to do so
We are not beset by insolvable problemsSlide54
“
Because we are the cause of our environmental problems, we are the ones in control of them, and we can choose or not choose to stop causing them and start solving them
.” (p. 521)
“
We just need to the political will to apply solutions already available
.” (p. 522)Slide55
There is increasing diffusion of environmental thinking among the public around the world.
Two types of choices are crucial:
Long term planning
Reconsider core values
Essential to make bold, courageous anticipatory decisions at a time when problems become perceptible but before they have reached crisis proportions (the opposite of short-term reactive decision-making)
Courage to make painful decisions about valuesSlide56
Diamond Question to think about
“
…
how much of our traditional consumer values and First World living standard can we afford to maintain?
” (p. 524)