/
Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist - PowerPoint Presentation

mitsue-stanley
mitsue-stanley . @mitsue-stanley
Follow
353 views
Uploaded On 2018-09-30

Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist - PPT Presentation

National Weather Service Los AngelesOxnard August 20 2015 El Niño outlook 201516 Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditions Greater than 90 chance of an El Ni ID: 682908

winter ni

Share:

Link:

Embed:

Download Presentation from below link

Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorol..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.


Presentation Transcript

Slide1

Eric Boldt

Warning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/OxnardAugust 20, 2015

El Niño

outlook

2015-16Slide2

Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditionsGreater than 90% chance of an El Ni

ño this winterForecasters unanimously favor a “strong” categoryLatest ENSO* InformationAugust 2015El Niño Advisory in effect* ENSO stands for El Niño Southern OscillationSlide3

Normal Pacific Pattern Slide4

El Niño Pattern Slide5

Global Satellite on

August 12, 2015

CloudsSlide6

Sea Surface

Temperature Anomalies Last Four WeeksSlide7

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies –

One Year

Latest weekly

(Aug. 17) value

of Niño 3.4 region

is

+2.0°

CSlide8

Sub-Surface

Temperatures in the

Equatorial Pacific (0-300m)Slide9

Comparison of SSH - 1997, 2015Slide10

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

- Cool phase since 1997

- Warm phase past yearSlide11

ENSO Model Predictions

Neutral

Summer

Winter

Weak to Moderate

StrongSlide12

Classic

El Niño Winter ImpactsSlide13

average

93-94Slide14
Slide15
Slide16

El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter

The strength of this El Niño is the most difficult prediction; favors a strong eventOne El Niño winter season will not end the drought (over 30” rainfall deficit in 4-years)Prior to the rainy season, we should be prepared for a dangerous wildfire seasonConclusionsSlide17

Thank You!

805-988-6623 eric.boldt@noaa.govweather.gov/losangeles @NWSLosAngelesweather.gov/losangeles

NWSLosAngeles