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Saudi Arabia vs. Iran The conflict that defines the Middle East Saudi Arabia vs. Iran The conflict that defines the Middle East

Saudi Arabia vs. Iran The conflict that defines the Middle East - PowerPoint Presentation

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Saudi Arabia vs. Iran The conflict that defines the Middle East - PPT Presentation

The Middle East Comparisons Sunni vs Shia Iran Physical Background Iran 1935 Persia becomes Iran 1941 Reformist Reza Shah abdicates in favour of son Forced to leave over close ties with Germany ID: 696768

saudi iran arabia saudis iran saudi saudis arabia syria oil war assad middle east iranians russia salman deal king

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Slide1

Saudi Arabia vs. Iran

The conflict that defines the Middle EastSlide2

The Middle EastSlide3

ComparisonsSlide4

Sunni vs. ShiaSlide5

Iran - PhysicalSlide6

Background Iran

1935 – Persia becomes Iran

1941 - Reformist Reza Shah abdicates in favour of son. Forced to leave over close ties with Germany.

1950 - Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi continues with reforms but comes into conflict with nationalistic PM Mossadegh.

1953- Shah close to the West. Mossadegh, nationalises Anglo-Iranian Oil Co (BP) and is then overthrown by CIA/MI5

1963 – White Revolution. Land reform, literacy programs and rights for women.

SAVAK set up

1967 – Crowns himself King of kings.

1971 – celebrates 2,500 years of Persian monarchy

1973 – OPEC quadruples price of oil. Windfall for the Shah

1976- replaces Islamic calendar with imperial one.

1979 – Flees Iran and dies in Cairo in 1980 (of cancer). US hostage Crisis.

1979-89 Iran/Iraq WarSlide7

Background Iran (2)

1989 – Khomeini dies. War with Iraq ends.

1995 – US sanctions over links with terrorism.

1997 – Moderate Khatami elected President(and again in 2001). Forces out the conservatives.

2002 – President Bush “Axis of Evil” speech.

2004 – Conservatives return and nuclear program resumed.

2005 – 2009 Ahmadinejad elected as President.

2012 – EU boycotts Iranian oil.

2013 – Moderate Cleric Rouhani wins presidency.

2014 – Russia offers to build nuclear reactors for Iran.

2015 – Nuclear deal with the US. Sanctions lifted in exchange for limited production of nuclear material.

2016 – Shia cleric executed in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Embassy burnt in Tehran.Slide8

The Shah and his third wife Farah

Diba

(now living in France).Slide9

Iran is not an Arab State

Iranians are very anti Arab. They themselves are Indo European whereas Arabs are Semitic, speak Farsi even thought they have an Arabic alphabet. Dari (Afghan Persian) spoken in Afghanistan.

Persian language Institute bans use of Arab words.

Persians feel superior thanks to 2,500 years of civilisation starting with Cyrus (who let the Jews go)

 Arabs conquered Persia in the seventh century, spreading Islam. Subsequently, in the 10th and 11th century, Turks took over the leadership of Islam, so Islamic history is not strictly the same thing as Arabic history.

Only 2% of Iranians are Arab.

To many Arabs, the Iranians were arrogant, luxury-loving fire-worshippers and pagans until the Arabs brought them the enlightened message of Islam. To many Iranians, the Arabs were uncultured nomads who destroyed the great Iranian civilization of the ancient Near East.Slide10

Comparing the regionSlide11

Saudi Arabia - physicalSlide12

Background Saudi Arabia

1932 – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia established

1938 – Oil discovered by US controlled firm Aramco.

1953 – Crown Prince Saud becomes king

1964 – King Saud deposed by brother Faisal.

1975 – Faisal assassinated by Nephew. Succeeded by brother Khalid.

1979- Saudis cut ties with Egypt over peace deal with Israel.

1982 – Khalid dies – succeeded by Fahd

1990 – condemns Iraqi invasion of Kuwait – allow US military on its soil.

2001 – 11 of 15 9/11 hijackers from Saudi Arabia

2003 – Suspected Al Qaeda attacks – US troops pull out.

2005 – Fahd dies – Abdullah ascends the throne

2010 – buys $60bn of US Arms

2011 – woman prosecuted for driving

2012 – Crown Prince Ibn Salman becomes Defence Minister

2015 – Abdullah dies – King Salman takes over.

2016 – Saudis start air campaign against Houthis in Yemen.Slide13

Wahhabism

Wahhabis helped the Saud family unite the country against rival chieftains in the 1950s. Ultra puritanical and anti modern.

In exchange the wahhabis gained control over education including universities – one third of all Saudi degrees are in Theology..

Wahhabis demanded adherence to Sharia Law – few rights for women, public floggings and beheadings, dress codes. Will the younger generation put up with that? Things are very different in Iran.

Social puritans they objected to the corruption that petro dollars engendered. An image problem for the Saudis? The world’s largest women’s prison?

Many neo wahhabis fighting with IS – Saudi Arabia's mortal enemy. Both lay claim to be the true Islamic State.

To change the Saudis would have to undermine the pact with the Wahhabis. Is bin Salman up to it?Slide14

An early adherent of wahhabismSlide15

Iran’s political structureSlide16

Iran’s political structure explained

President – 4 years. 2

nd

in command after the Supreme leader often hampered by clerics. Candidates vetted by Guardian Council. Important jobs like foreign policy and defence the domain of the Supreme leader.

Cabinet – chosen by President an approved by Parliament.

Parliament (Majlis) 290 members elected every 4 years. Pass laws that must be approved by the Guardian Council.

Assembly of experts – appoints the Supreme leader – only for clerics – 8 year term.

Guardian Council -6 years, 12 members (6 of them theologians appointed by the Supreme Leader). Approves parliamentary bills – women blocked from standing.

Supreme Leader – Only 2 ever (Khomeini and Khameini). No 1 in rank.

Judiciary – appointed by Supreme Leader – based on Sharia Law

Expediency council – advise Supreme leader in case of conflict between Parliament and Guardian CouncilSlide17

Saudi Arabia – political structure

An absolute monarchy – the king is head of government as well as head of state.

Al Saud family are the main players in government – heavily factionalised.

Royal family holds all key government posts.

Sharia Law

No political parties.

King presides over Council of ministers) most of whom are in line for the throne.

Consultative Assembly (150 members) may only “suggest” legislation to the King.Slide18

The supreme leaders in IranSlide19

Recent Iranian Presidents (Ahmadinejad and Rouhani)Slide20

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran

Everything was going well up until 1979

There was co-operation over threats from Nasser’s Pan Arabism, The encroachment of the USSR in the region and the spread of Secular Baathism from Iraq.

After Britain withdrew from the Middle East in 1971, the US adopts “twin Pillars” approach to the Middle East with Saudis and Iranians as western allies and policemen in the region. The Shah enthusiastically adopts this role.

1975 – Faisal assassinated – dispute over oil. Iran want to put prices up. The Shah is heavily dependent on oil revenue to underwrite defence spending.

1979 – the Iranian revolution. The Shah leaves replaced by fundamentalist cleric Khomeini. Religion comes to the forefront. Iran claims broad Islamic support for its policies.Slide21

Saudi Arabia vs. Iran (2)

Iran blames “decadent” Saudis. Claims moral authority over Islam. Clashes with Saudis over their guardianship of the two holy mosques in Mecca and Medina. Says Saudis are in the pocket of the Americans.

Iran uses the media to back the Shia minority in Saudi Arabia.

1980 – Saddam Hussein gets Khalid’s approval to invade Iran which is in turmoil. Saudis provided billions for Hussein’s campaign.

Saudi tankers hit during Iran – Iraq war which runs from 1979 – 1989. 750,000 Iranians killed. In 1989 the Ayatollah dies – improved relations? Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 dies draw them closer together.

In 1996 Khobar Towers attacked In Saudi Arabia – Iran blamed.

1997 – moderate Khatami elected and things improve but only for a short while.

2003 Saddam Hussein toppled – Saudis lose their counterweight to Iran. Iran backs new Shia government in Iraq and Shia militias through out the Middle East.Slide22

Saudi Arabia vs. Iran (3)

2005 – Ahmadinejad elected – a revival of the 79 revolution? Strengthens ties with Syrian Government, Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause that Saudis are very quiet about.

Both use proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran backs the Houthis, Al Assad – all the Shias.

Shia Cleric executed in 2016 in Saudi Arabia – Iranians burn SA embassy in Tehran. Iranians criticise Saudis over deaths at the Haj.

2013 – Rouhani criticises Saudis for spreading wahhabism. Mostly true. Saudis spend lots of money on building Madrassas to spread the message of Wahhabism ( a very fundamental approach to the Koran and Sharia Law) throughout the Middle East.

The US – Obama tells Saudis to “share the neighbourhood”. In a delicate spot here – it needs the Saudis but also the Iranians over the nuclear deal. US becoming less reliant on Middle East oil?Slide23

The Saudi sense of a regional Cold War

It has vastly escalated tensions with Iran over the execution of Il Nimr.

Rise of Islamic State and US nuclear deal with Iran have made it nervous.

Iran’s reintegration into the International Order makes it a threat to its regional standing

Domestic problems but foreign policy matters a greater threat to its survival.

Close partnership with the UAE and traditional rivals Egypt and Syria out of action.

Also vulnerable – wars in Yemen and Syria are not going well.

Conflict with Iran a distraction from failures in Syria and Yemen. This is the usual approach but given The Arab Spring, weakened states and increasing partisanship of social media makes this sectarian game much more dangerous.

Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia now stronger and criminalising Muslim Brother hood also a future threat.Slide24

The Saudi Royal Family

King Salman in charge – now 80 years old.

Second in line is prince bin Nayef. King’s son Prince bin Salman defence minister and heir presumptive although the older royals out of respect for age want Nayef who is popular with the US rather than the 31 year old bin Salman.

Salman want to modernise the economy but also hold on to power.

Wants to move the economy away from oil revenues and break the free spending habits of the Saudis.

Appeals to the younger generation 70% of whom are under 30.

Introduced spending cuts to health and education but then bought a $550 million Russian oligarch’s yacht.

Mocked as a “prince of vision” – too many consultants?

Responsible for the war in Yemen but has no military experience.

Iranian foreign affairs suggest that he will probably kill his father.Slide25

Prince ibn Salman – King SalmanSlide26

A very large royal family – about 20,000Slide27

The Saudi economy

90% of its revenue comes from oil.

All oil sold through state owned Aramco. Could it be sold off?

Sold off before the US becomes even less dependent on Saudi oil and alternatives start to take off? Sell more gas and less oil?

Aramco claims 261 billion barrels of oil in reserve. Sells 10 million barrels a day to the US. Figures in reserve ”rubbery” and closely guarded secret.

1992 oil prices fell (currently $40 down from $110 a barrel). Saudis borrowed heavily but then were saved by the China boom

Saudis control the tap and therefore the prices in OPEC.

Petro cash paid for subsidised fuel and electricity. Health and education is free. 25 % of the budget goes on defence

Saudis use imported workers for all non government jobs. Can that go on?

2/3rds employed by the government and not doing much.

Yemen war created black hole in budget hence cuts to subsidies.Slide28

The Saudi problem with oilSlide29

Factionalism in Iran

Since sanctions were lifted on January oil production has increased 60% however the economy has not picked up as predicted.

US firms still scared to invest as there are still sanction (e.g. On republican guard).

SWIFT banking exchange system reconnected but no one can use it.

Credits cards don’t work in Iran

Rouhani predicted 8% growth and massive investment to modernise the economy – that has not happened. Money went to elites? Khameini not happy over promises made after nuclear deal and blames Rouhani.

Will Rouhani get another term or will he be barred by the GC? Hardliners own the newspapers. The first one term President?

Ahmadinejad still very popular among the poor for his welfare hand outs

Supreme Leader fights President in the press – not a good look. Supreme Leader more Isolationist. Condemns globalisation and the teaching of English – Rouhani, as an economic liberal, embraces it.

Death of moderate pragmatist Rafsanjani in January 2017 who opened up Iran to the West might make it harder for Rouhani to win.Slide30

If it came to war?

Unlikely although less than 200 kilometres separates both countries in the Persian gulf.

Iran has four times the population and some 2.3 million troops

Saudi Arabia has a 250,000 strong army but outspends Iran $56bn to $6bn on defence technology.

Gulfies would most likely support Saudis.

Other Middle Eastern countries being predominantly Sunni would support Saudis.Slide31

Implications for the region

It suits IS to have sectarian strife continue. IS will escape the spotlight in Syria as the two of them focus on their proxies.

Genie is out of the bottle with all diplomatic relations suspended.

Bahrain, UAE and Turkey edging towards the Saudis.

Only the Russians and the Americans can get both parties talking or will it create greater tensions between the two superpowers?

A big spike in oil prices?

Will it ensure that the Syrian war goes on and on? Both sides will ramp up their efforts to gain an advantage.

Iraq offered to be a mediator – things must be bad.

Will drag in others – The Arab League backed Saudis of the death of Al Nimr (all except Lebanon).

Diplomacy needs to be on the same track as the military. While Russia supports Assad and the US wants to remove ISIS from Syria, only diplomacy will allow the Russians a graceful exit.

Turkey and Egypt need to stay out of it. Israeli attack on Hezbollah site in Syria.Slide32

In summary

Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are projecting power into a vacuum. Iran spent $9bn supporting Assad , Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. Saudis arm the rebels in Syria and the government in Yemen.

Both are able to project that power because the restraints are missing – originally the Mongols, then the Turks, the British, The US and Russia during the Cold War.

However it is less about religion than legitimacy.

Religion becomes the main focus and point of difference because there are no other points to rally around

With the exception of their cultural differences. The cultural divide between Persians and Arabs. Iran is a nationality – Persian is an ethnic group. Are you Persian ?– perhaps not!

Persian Gulf or Arabian Gulf?Slide33

And just in case you did not get itSlide34

And Syria

Started in 2011 – during the Arab Spring.

15 boys caught writing pro Arab Spring slogans on school were tortured and one 13 year old died.

Protests put down by Assad killing hundreds and imprisoning more.

Defectors from the Army create the Free Syrian Army and civil war begins.

Islamists among protestors who hated Bashar All Assad’s father for the killing of 10 – 40,000 Muslim Brotherhood protestors in Hama in 1982.

Severe drought played a part (2007-10) causing many to move to the cities.

Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia support the rebels.

Iran and Iraq support Assad, as does Lebanon-based Hezbollah.

In September 2015,

Russia launched a

bombing campaign against what it referred to as "terrorist groups" in Syria, which included ISIL as well as rebel groups backed by Western states.

The Us has bombed IS targets there since 2014Slide35

Syria – how it spread (from the NYT)Slide36

Syria (2)

 The Free Syrian Army has weakened as the war has progressed, while explicitly Islamist groups, such as the al-

Nusra

Front, which has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, and the Saudi-backed Islamic Front have gained in strength.

Assad controls, Damascus, Aleppo and parts of the south of the country.

Kurds are seeking self rule in areas under their control – Turks have therefore bombed Kurds as well as others.

US staying out of it as much as it can. Even use of chemical weapons by Assad did not provoke it to greater involvement.

The Syrian war is creating profound effects far beyond the country's borders. Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan are hosting large and growing numbers of Syrian refugees, many of whom have attempted to journey onwards to Europe in search of better conditions. Estimates put the refugee exodus at 5 million.Slide37

Why Aleppo? Because it is the largest city, the centre of commerce and because its capture fragmented the oppositionSlide38

Why is Russia backing Al Assad?

They have a long relationship going back four decades. A military and intelligence link. Assad’s father trained as a pilot in the USSR.

During the Cold War Syria aligned with the Eastern Bloc.

Russia's only port in the middle East is there at Tartus.

Syria is an important arms client of Russia and has been since 1970 when his father took over.

Saw it as part of an American Arab Spring plot

Not to back Assad now would be caving into American pressure.

Support within Russia for the conflict is low.

Draws attention away from the Ukraine?

American support for the Arab uprisings ended in disaster for all except for the Tunisians. Russia keen to preserve a stable arrangement on it southern borders and mindful of the susceptibility of its southern states to extremist influence.Slide39

TartusSlide40

Why are the Americans not backing Assad

Supporting the rebels synonymous with promoting democracy and freedom in 2011 when the Anti Assad movement started.

Limited arms support for the rebels but Obama not willing to get involved or offer heavy weapons. Limited program now stopped. Fear that those weapons would get into the wrong hands.

Republicans and Hillary wanted to arm them but Obama said no arguing that no one had right on their side in the conflict. Medical Aid, food and non lethal aid only given.

Obama argued that at least with Assad there Syria was stable and of no strategic importance to anyone.

Four years later, the result is a splintered Syrian opposition, the growth of the Islamic State group and a humanitarian disaster stretching across Europe. Now the rebels are uncomfortably tied in with IS and other groups.

Now 200,000 dead and 4 million displaced. And Trump heavily involved.Slide41

Syria – the consequences

Conflict spreads – no longer Muslim killing Muslim left to burn out by itself.

For Europe it has meant ;

the growth of the right ( Le Pen supports Assad)

Threatened cohesion of the EU (Brexit a partial result)

Loss of faith in core EU values –borderless movement and pluralism.

Anxiety over identity and cultural values.

Conflict with Turkey (or at least Erdogan)

For Russia

A Sunni backlash? Growing unpopularity at home – Uzbek and St Petersburg incident. If Syria collapses will it become a haven for Islamic State?

The World – Global division, paralysis of the Security Council because the US and Russia back opposing sides. Lack of consensus or any plan. Is Trump interested in solving this? The end of “the responsibility to protect” started in Kosovo.Slide42

Trump and the Iran nuclear dealSlide43

Trump and the Iran nuclear deal

Trump however has recently said that Iran is meeting the terms of the deal. More sanctions to be waived? Bipartisan Congress however wants to introduce new terms to the agreement.

Might encourage hardliners in Iran to vote Rouhani out in May this year and scrap the whole deal. That would give Iran a green light to go ahead rapidly with nuclear program.

US Generals very anti IS as their first priority but that would mean helping to spread Iranian influence.

The problems in the Middle East never stay in the Middle East – see recent war in Syria.

Trump to support Russian designs in the Middle East? Wants to do a deal with Putin to combat IS.

Trump cannot afford to get this wrong. Is it impossible for the US to disengage now after the missile strikes in Syria?

Trump also actively militarily supports the Saudis in Yemen and against the Iranian backed rebels.Slide44

Saudis and Iran

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal from Saudi Arabia says it is time to let women drive – economic necessity he says. Over 40 only?

OPEC finally agrees to limit production. SA and Iran lead push.

Massive propaganda war now from both sides accusing each other. Iranians blame Saudi incompetence over deaths at the Haj. Saudis say the Iranians are not really Muslims but “fire worshippers” .

Iranian cyber attack on Saudi central bank.

Iran trying to extend its influence to the Mediterranean via Syria and then the Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Trump going over to Assad’s side could help Iran who is Assad’s main backer. US packs up and leaves the region?

Saudis back Taliban financially and often privately to build a Sunni radical wall against Iran. Taliban on fake Pakistani passports travel frequently to Saudi Arabia. Iranians too now building Madrassas and private Universities. Sees Afghanistan through Pakistani eyes?

Iran buys 80 Airbus aircraft worth $16bn.Slide45

Saudi Arabia – the need for changeSlide46

The Saudi and Vision 2030

King Salman concluded a six week Asian tour spanning China, Japan, Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia, while his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with President Donald Trump. Both trips aimed to drum up investment for the Kingdom’s, Vision 2030.

China and Japan, the world’s second and third largest economies, are in the top five export markets for Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis are the largest supplier of petroleum imports for both countries.

In China, $65 billion worth of joint ventures between Chinese and Saudi firms in sectors ranging from energy to renewables to space.

Ventures with Indonesia and Malaysia.

the Saudis cast a wide net to capture as much foreign investment and diversified revenue as possible.

Saudis spend $24 billion (AUD) on shopping and travel overseas every year.

Saudi leaders have to lead by example. Bureaucracies can they cope?

This is a country where people have always lived with cheap petrol, without taxes, and free water and electricity.Slide47

But they still have a long way to goSlide48

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