ANNALSOFTHENEWYORKACADEMYOFSCIENCES Issue BlavatnikAwardsforYoungScientists Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitabilitycurrentstatus andfuturechallenges JunKorenaga DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysicsYaleU ID: 99447
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Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.ISSN0077-8923 ANNALSOFTHENEWYORKACADEMYOFSCIENCES Issue: BlavatnikAwardsforYoungScientists Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitability:currentstatus andfuturechallenges JunKorenaga DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysics,YaleUniversity,NewHaven,Connecticut Addressforcorrespondence:JunKorenaga,DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysics,YaleUniversity,P.O.Box208109, NewHaven,CT06520-8109.jun.korenaga@yale.edu Platetectonicsisoneofthemajorfactorsaffectingthepotentialhabitabilityofaterrestrialplanet.Thephysicsofplate tectonicsis,however,stillfarfrombeingcomplete,leadingtoconsiderableuncertaintywhendiscussingplanetary habitability.Here,IsummarizerecentdevelopmentsontheevolutionofplatetectonicsonEarth,whichsuggesta radicallynewviewonEarthdynamics:convectioninthemantlehasbeenspeedingupdespiteitssecularcooling, andtheoperationofplatetectonicshasbeenfacilitatedthroughoutEarthshistorybythegradualsubductionof waterintoaninitiallydrymantle.Theroleofplatetectonicsinplanetaryhabitabilitythroughitsinuenceon atmosphericevolutionisstilldifculttoquantify,and,tothisend,itwillbevitaltobetterunderstandacoupled coremantleatmospheresysteminthecontextofsolarsystemevolution. Keywords: terrestrialplanets;mantledynamics;planetarymagnetism;atmosphericevolution Introduction UnderwhatconditionscanaplanetlikeEarththat is,aplanetthatcanhostlifebeformed?Thisques- tionofplanetaryhabitabilityhasbeenaddressed countlesstimesinthepast, 13 asitisdeeplycon- nectedtotheoriginoflife,perhapsthemostfasci- natingprobleminscience.Inthelastdecadeorso, researchactivitiesinthiseldhavebeeninvigorated, fueledbyarapidlyexpandingcatalogofextraso- larplanets. 46 Thehabitabilityofaplanetdepends onanumberoffactorsincluding,forexample,the massofthecentralstarandthedistancefromit, theatmosphericcomposition,orbitalstability,the operationofplatetectonics,andtheacquisitionof waterduringplanetaryformation.Themassofthe stardeterminestheevolutionofitsluminosity,and theheliocentricdistanceofaplanetaswellasthe volumeoftheatmosphereanditscompositionthen controlthesurfacetemperatureoftheplanet.The surfacetemperaturehastobeinacertainrange sothatwecanexpectthepresenceofliquidwa- terprovidedthatwaterexists,andorbitaldynamics affectthestabilityoftheplanetaryclimate.Plate tectonicscontrolstheevolutionoftheatmosphere throughvolcanicdegassingandsubduction,andit isalsoessentialfortheexistenceofaplanetarymag- neticeld,whichprotectstheatmospherefromthe interactionwiththesolarwind.Thesefactorsaf- fectingplanetaryhabitabilityarethusinterrelated tovariousdegrees.Whetherornotplatetectonics isoperatingonaplanet,forexample,wouldgive risetovastlydifferentscenariosforitsatmospheric evolution,affectingthedenitionofthehabitable heliocentricdistance,thatis,thehabitablezone. Thefocusofthiscontributionisonplatetecton- ics.Platetectonicsreferstoaparticularmodeof convectioninaplanetarymantle,whichismadeof silicaterocks,andsofaritisobservedonlyonEarth. Earthssurfaceisdividedintoadozenplatesorso, andtheseplatesaremovingatdifferentvelocities. Mostgeologicalactivities,suchasearthquakes,vol- caniceruption,andmountainbuilding,occurwhen differentplatesinteractatplateboundaries.There- alizationthatEarthssurfaceisactivelydeforming viaplatetectonicswasachievedthroughthe1960s and1970s,revolutionizingalmostallbranchesof earthsciences.Platetectonicsisafundamentalpro- cess,yetwestilldonotunderstanditinasatisfac- torymanner.Forexample,whereasthepresent-day doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06276.x Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.1260(2012)8794 c 2012NewYorkAcademyofSciences. 87 Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitability Korenaga platemotionisknowninconsiderabledetail, 7 re- constructingpastplatemotionbecomesquitedif- cultonceweenterthePrecambrian(before540 millionyearsago),andeventhegrosscharacteristics ofancientplatetectonicsisuncertain. 8 Naturally, whenplatetectonicsstartedtooperateonEarthis stillcontroversial. 9 Partofthedifcultyoriginates inthepaucityofobservations;wehavefewerge- ologicalsamplesfromgreaterages.Thesituation isevenmorecompoundedbythelackoftheoret- icalunderstanding.Geophysicistshaveyettoform aconsensusonwhyplatetectonicstakesplaceon Earthandnotonotherterrestrial(e.g.,Earth-like) planetssuchasVenusandMars. 10 Thephysicsof platetectonicsisstillincomplete,andthiscreatesa seriousimpedimenttothediscussionofplanetary habitability.Underwhatconditionscouldplatetec- tonicsemergeonaplanet,andhowwoulditevolve throughtime?Withoutbeingabletoanswerthese questions,itwouldbenearlyimpossibletopredict theatmosphericevolutionofagivenplanetandthus itshabitability. Fundamentalissuesregardingthephysicsofplate tectonicsmaybeparaphrasedbythefollowingques- tions:howdidplatetectonicsevolveinthepast?,why doesplatetectonicstakeplaceonEarth?,andwhen didplatetectonicsrstappearonEarth?Consider- ableprogresshasbeenmadeontherstquestionin thelastdecade,andthisprogressturnsouttohelp betteraddressthesecondandthirdquestionsaswell. Inthefollowingsections,Iwillrevieweachquestion onebyoneandconcludewithasynthesisofcurrent statusaswellasmajortheoreticalchallengestobe tackledinthecomingyears. Howdidplatetectonicsevolve? Asplatetectonicsisjustonetypeofthermalcon- vection,itisreasonabletospeculateontheevo- lutionofplatetectonicsonthebasisofuidme- chanics.Earthsmantleinthepastwasgenerally hotterandthusprobablyhadlowerviscositythan present.Elementaryuidmechanicstellsusthat thisreductioninviscosityshouldhaveresultedin morevigorousconvection,thatis,higherheatux andfasterplatetectonics. 11 Geologicalsupportfor suchfasterplatetectonicshaslongbeenlacking, 12 butthislackofobservationalsupportisusuallynot takenseriouslybecausegeologicaldatabecomevery scarceandmoredifculttointerpretinthePrecam- brian.Thenotionoffasterplatetectonicsinthepast, however,hasbeenknowntopredictanunrealistic thermalhistorycalledthermalcatastrophe, 13 un- lessoneassumesthatEarthcontainsconsiderably moreheat-producingelementsthanthecomposi- tionmodelsofEarthindicate(Fig.1).Thiscanbe understoodbyconsideringthefollowingglobalheat balance: C dT dt = H ( t ) Q ( t ) , (1) where C istheheatcapacityoftheentireEarth, T is averageinternaltemperature, t istime, H isinter- nalheatproductionowingtothedecayofradioac- tiveisotopes,and Q isheatlossfromthesurface bymantleconvection.Bythenatureofradioactive decay,theinternalheatproductionmonotonically Figure1. Thermalhistorypredictionforfourcombinations ofheatowscalingandinternalheatproduction(seeRef.17for modelingdetail).Thenewscalingofplatetectonicspredictsrel- ativelyconstantheatuxindependentofmantletemperature, whereasclassicalscalingpredictshigherheatuxforhotterman- tle.TheUreyratioisameasureoftheamountofheat-producing elementsinthemantle,andthechemicalcompositionmodels ofEarthsuggestthatitspresent-dayvalue( Ur 0 = H(0)/Q(0) )is relativelylow, 0.3. 14 Constantheatuxwithalowpresent-day Ureyratio( solid )istheonlyonethatcanreproducetheobserved concave-downwardthermalhistorywithanaveragecoolingrate of 100KGa 1 ( circles ). 27 Inthisprediction,Earthwaswarming upduringtherstonebillionyears;suchasituationispossible withtheefcientcoolingofthemagmaocean. 50 Classicalscal- ingwithalowUreyratioresultsinthermalcatastrophe( gray line ).ClassicalscalingwithahighUreyratio( graydashedline ) canreproduceareasonablecoolingrate,butathermalhistory isconcaveupward.ConstantheatuxwithahighUreyratio ( dashedline )resultsintoocoldathermalhistory. 88 Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.1260(2012)8794 c 2012NewYorkAcademyofSciences. Korenaga Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitability decreaseswithtime,withaneffectivehalf-lifeof aboutthreebillionyears.Theconvectiveheatloss canbeparameterizedasafunctionofaveragetem- peratureas Q T m , (2) wheretheexponent m ispredictedtobe 10bythe classicaltheoryofthermalconvection; 11 heatloss isextremelysensitivetoachangeininternaltem- perature.Thepresent-dayinternalheatproduction H(0) isonlyabout30%oftheconvectiveheatloss Q(0), 14 soabout70%ofheatlossmustbebalanced bytherapidcoolingofEarth;thatis,Earthmust havebeenmuchhotterthanatpresenttoexplain thepresent-daythermalbudget.Becauseconvective heatlossrisessharplywithincreasingtemperature (Eq.2),however,heatlossmusthavebeenextremely highinthepast,resultinginamoresevereimbal- ancebetweenheatproductionandheatloss,aswe considerfurtherbackintime.Thispositivefeedback iswhatcausesthermalcatastropheinthemiddleof theEarthhistory.Theonlywaytopreventit,while keepingtheclassicalscaling( m 10),istoassume thatinternalheatproductionisclosetoconvective heatlossatpresent,thatis, H(0) Q(0) ,butthisvi- olatesourunderstandingofthechemicalbudgetof Earth.Thisconictbetweenthegeophysicaltheory ofmantleconvectionandthegeochemicalmodel ofEarthhasinspiredavarietyofproposals(see Ref.14forreview),manyofwhichhideanexcessive amountofheat-producingelementsinthedeep, inaccessiblemantleapossiblebutrather adhoc solution. Anovelsolutionwassuggestedin2003based ontheeffectofmantlemeltingonmantleconvec- tion. 15 Fasterplatetectonicsinthepastisbasedon simpleuidmechanicsthatdonotcapturerealis- ticcomplicationsassociatedwithsilicaterocks.An importantdifferencefromclassicalthermalconvec- tionischemicaldifferentiation;whenthemantleis risingtowardthesurface,itusuallymelts,andthis meltingcanaffectmantledynamics.Uponmelt- ing,impuritiesinthemantle,mostnotablywater, arelargelypartitionedintothemeltphase,leav- ingtheresidualmantleverystiff. 16 Ahottermantle inthepastmeansmoreextensivemelting,making thickerstiffplatesandslowingdownplatetecton- ics.Consideringboththephysicsandchemistryof Earthsmantlethuspointstoanentirelyopposite prediction:slowerplatetectonicsinthepast,which isequivalenttousing m 0inEq.(2).Withthis nonclassicalscalingofplatetectonics,ithasbecome possibletoreconstructareasonablethermalhis- torywithoutviolatingthegeochemicalconstraints (Fig.1).Thissolution,whichwasfurtherelaborated in2006, 17 metconsiderableskepticismbecauseofits counterintuitivenature.Somedoubtedtherobust- nessofthegeochemicalconstraintsontheamount ofheat-producingelements,buttheuncertaintyof themantlecompositionhasbeenshowntobetight enoughtodiscountsuchleeway. 18 Otherssuspected thattherelativecontributionofheat-producingele- mentsmaybeincreasedbyloweringtheestimateon present-dayheatuxinstead, 19 , 20 butthispossibility hasbeenshowntobeinconsistentwithavailablege- ologicalrecords. 21 , 22 Additionally,thecounterintu- itivepredictionwasbasedonanapproximatetheory (knownastheboundarylayertheory)withseveral simplifyingassumptions,andsomequestionedthe validityofthisapproach. 23 Recently,however,the originalpredictionhasbeengivenfulltheoretical supportfromextensivenumericalsimulationand scalinganalysis. 24 , 25 Equallyimportantistheappearanceofnewde- cisiveobservations.In2008,thecompilationof thegeologicalrecordsofancientpassivemargins waspublished,whichindicatesthatthetempoof platetectonicsinthepastwasindeedslowerthan present. 26 In2010,thethermalhistoryofEarths uppermantlewasreconstructedbyapplyingthe latestpetrologicaltechniquetoanextensivecom- pilationofPrecambrianvolcanicrocks(Fig.1). 27 Theconcave-downwardnatureofthisthermalhis- toryisparticularlyimportant,asitprovidesstrong supportforthenotionofslowerplatetectonicsand therelativelylowabundanceofheat-producingel- ementsatthesametime;itisimpossibletorepro- ducethiscurvaturebyassumingfasterplatetec- tonicsforahottermantle.Mostrecently,anew constraintontheabundanceofheat-producingele- mentsinthemantlewasreportedbasedongeoneu- trinoobservations,whichfavorstherelatively lowabundanceasindicatedbythegeochemical estimate. 28 Theradicallynewviewontheevolutionofplate tectonics,therefore,hasbeencorroboratedboth theoreticallyandobservationallyinrecentyears,and ithasbecomedifculttorefutethenotionofslower platetectonicsinthepast,howevercounterintu- itiveitmightbe.Actually,whatiscounterintuitive Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.1260(2012)8794 c 2012NewYorkAcademyofSciences. 89 Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitability Korenaga isasubjectivematter,andinthiscase,itislargely educational.FasterplatetectonicsforahotterEarth ispredictedbytheuidmechanicsofanearlyiso- viscousuid.Notheoreticaljusticationexistsfor itsapplicabilitytoEarthsmantle.Theclassicalthe- oryisstillwidelyusedinplanetarysciences,but itsimplyfailstoreproducethethermalhistoryof thebest-understoodplanet(Fig.1).Therewouldbe littlemeritinextrapolatingatheorythatcannotex- plainEarthtootherterrestrialplanets,forwhichwe haveconsiderablyfewerobservationalconstraints. Thisisespeciallytruewhendiscussingthedynamics ofEarth-like,potentiallyhabitableplanets. Whydoesplatetectonicshappen? Therearetwofundamentallydifferentmodesof mantleconvection:(1)platetectonicsand(2)stag- nantlid. 29 Instagnant-lidconvection,theentiresur- faceofaplanetformsarigidsphericalshell,and convectioncantakeplaceonlyundertheshell.In platetectonics,thesurfaceisbrokenintopieces, mostofwhichcanreturntothedeepmantle,en- ablinggeochemicalcyclesbetweenthesurfaceand theinterior.Amongthefourterrestrialplanetsin oursolarsystem,Earthistheonlyplanetthatex- hibitsplatetectonics,andtheotherthree(Mercury, Venus,andMars)arebelievedtobeinthemode ofstagnantlid. 30 Itiseasytoexplainwhyplatetec- tonicsdoesnottakeplaceonotherplanets,because stagnant-lidconvectionisthemostnaturalmodeof convectioninamediumwithstronglytemperature- dependentviscosity,suchassilicaterocksthatcon- stituteaplanetarymantle. 29 Mantleviscosityis extremelyhighatatypicalsurfacecondition,sovir- tuallynodeformationisexpectedthere.Themode ofplatetectonicsispossible,therefore,onlywhen someadditionalmechanismexiststocompensate theeffectoftemperature-dependentviscosity.On- goingdebatesaremostlyregardingthisadditional weakeningmechanism. Inadditiontoductiledeformationcharacterized byviscosity,silicaterockscanalsodeformbybrittle deformationsuchascrackingandfaulting.Weak- eningbybrittlemechanismsislimitedbyfrictional strength, 31 however,andwithatypicalfrictional coefcientoforder1,brittleweakeningisinsuf- cienttocauseplatetectonics. 32 Inordertosimulate platetectonicsinnumericalmodels,therefore,ithas beenacommonpracticetoassumeamuchlower frictioncoefcient,butaphysicalmechanismthat couldleadtosuchalowcoefcienthasbeenpoorly understood. 33 Oneplausiblemechanismisareduc- tioninaneffectivefrictioncoefcientbyhighpore uidpressure,withwaterbeingtheuidmedium. Forplatetectonicstooccurwiththismechanism (i.e.,tobreakathickstagnantlid),however,wa- terhastobetransportedtosubstantialdepthsand thenisolatedfromthesurfacetoachievehighpore uidpressure.Themereexistenceofsurfacewater doesnotguaranteeeitheroftheserequirements.If deepwaterisconnectedtothesurface,forexam- ple,itwouldbeathydrostaticpressure,meaning thatporeuidpressureistoolowtoachieveasuf- cientlylowfrictioncoefcient.Inthisregard,the thermalcrackinghypothesis, 33 inwhicharigidlid isextensivelyfracturedbystrongthermalstressand thenlatersealedbyhydrationreactions,hassofar beentheonlytangiblemechanismthatcouldgen- erateplatetectonicsinthepresenceofsurfacewater (Fig.2). Whendiscussingthemodeofmantleconvec- tion,itisimportanttoavoidbeingtrappedina chicken-and-eggsituation.Thebendingofasub- ductingplate,forexample,mayfractureandweaken theplatebyhydration, 34 butonecannotinvokethis mechanismfortheonsetofplatetectonics;aweak- eningmechanismmustbeoperationalevenwith- outplatetectonics.Thesamecautionappliesto variousdynamicweakeningmechanismsassociated withearthquakedynamics. 35 Findingaphysicalmechanismforweakeningis justonesideofthecoin.Theothersideistounder- standthecriticalstrengthofasurfacelidthatcanbe overcomebyconvectivestressexertedbytheman- tlebelow.Bothsidesarenecessarytounderstand underwhatconditionsplatetectonicscanhappen. Thisissuehasbeenstudiedbyvariousauthorsus- ingnumericalsimulation(e.g.,Refs.36and37),but inmostpreviousattempts,thetemperaturedepen- dencyofmantleviscositywasnotstrongenoughto beEarth-like.Aquantitativecriterionfortheonset ofplatetectonicswasfoundin2010,fortherst timewithrealisticmantleviscosity,whileconduct- inganumberofnumericalsimulationstoestablish thescalingofplatetectonicsforthermalevolution modeling. 24 Revisitingthenotionofslowerancient platetectonicswiththisnewcriterionturnsout toyieldanintriguinginsightfortheinitiationof platetectonicsonEarth,asdiscussedinthenext section. 90 Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.1260(2012)8794 c 2012NewYorkAcademyofSciences. Korenaga Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitability primary thermal cracks secondary cracking caused by high residual stress and shallow serpentinization viscous lower half Figure2. Schematicillustrationforrheologicalevolutionwithinaplateunderoceans. 33 Optimalreleaseofthermalstressdeveloped inacoolingplateisachievedbyacascadecracksystem(primarycracks).Anyresidualstresswilleventuallybereleasedbysecondary crackpropagationifpartialcrackhealingbyshallowserpentinizationraisesthepressureoftrappedseawatertolithostaticpressure. Thestiffestpartofplateduetostrongtemperature-dependentviscositycanthusbepervasivelyweakenedbythermalcrackingand subsequenthydration. Whendidplatetectonicsstart? Basedoneldevidence,manygeologistswouldcon- curwiththeoperationofplatetectonicsbackto about3billionyearsago, 38 , 39 butanythingbeyond thatiscontroversial.Earthshistoryisdividedinto foureons:theHadean(4.64.0billionyearsago),the Archean(4.02.5billionyearsago),theProterozoic (2.50.54billionyearsago),andthePhanerozoic (0.54billionyearsagotopresent).TheHadean Archeanboundaryisdenedbytheageoftheold- estrockfoundonEarth.TheArcheanProterozoic boundaryisdenedbytherelativeabundanceof rocksthatis,rocksofArcheanagesaremuchrarer thanthoseofyoungerages.Thesedenitionsofthe geologicaltimescaleindicatethatndingunam- biguousgeologicaldatafortherstappearanceof platetectonicsonEarthshistory,whichmightbe intheHadeanera, 40 wouldbequitechallenging. Buildingatheoreticalfoundationforthisproblem isthusofcriticalimportance. Asmentionedearlier,slowerplatetectonicsinthe pastresultsfromtheformationofthickerstiffplates bymoreextensivemelting.Thickerplatesslowdown platetectonics,butiftoothick,theycouldpoten- tiallyjeopardizetheoperationofplatetectonicsit- self.Thelikelihoodofshuttingdownplatetectonics inthepastcanbehighbecausemuchlowerconvec- tivestressisexpectedforahotter,lessviscousmantle beneathplates;thickerplatesandweakerconvective stressbothacttoimpedeplatetectonics.Indeed,a quantitativeassessmentofthispossibilityusingthe newcriterionindicatesthatplatetectonicsisviable onlyforthelastonebillionyears, 41 whichgrossly contradictswithgeologicalevidence. Onepossibleresolutiontothisconundrumcame fromanapparentlyunrelatedthreadofthought, thoughinhindsightitisanaturalextensionofthe existingtheory.Byincorporatinggeologicalcon- straintsonthepastsealevelintothermalevolution modeling,onecanreconstructthehistoryofocean volume,andslowerplatetectonicscorrespondsto greateroceanvolumeinthepast. 42 TheArchean oceansareestimatedtohavebeenabouttwiceasvo- luminousasthepresentoceans,andthisdifference inoceanvolumeisroughlyequivalenttotheamount ofwaterstoredinthepresentmantle.Earthsman- tlecouldhavebeendrierandthusmoreviscousin thepast,andifthisexchangeofwaterbetweenthe mantleandtheoceansistakenintoaccount,theop- erationofplatetectonicsbecomesviablethroughout Earthshistory. 24 , 41 Ithaslongbeensuggestedthat Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.1260(2012)8794 c 2012NewYorkAcademyofSciences. 91 Platetectonicsandplanetaryhabitability Korenaga platetectonicscouldresultinnetwaterinuxtothe mantle, 43 , 44 andmodelingthemantleasanopen systemnowappearstobeanecessity,ratherthanan option. Platetectonics,therefore,couldhavestartedon Earthshortlyafterthesolidicationofaglobal magmaocean,whichprobablyexistedonlyforthe rstfewtensofmillionsofyearsofEarthshistory. 45 OneinterestingndingfromEarthsevolutionwith ahydratingmantleisthatthesubductionofwater isessentialtomaintainadrylandmass,whichin turnplaysanindispensableroleinstabilizingthe climate.Withoutadrylandmass,nosilicateweath- eringcouldtakeplacesothattheatmosphericcom- positioncouldnotberegulatedefcientlybycarbon cycle. 1 Summaryandoutlook Anemergingviewontheevolutionofplatetecton- icsonEarthcanbesummarizedbythefollowing. Platetectonicsstartedprobablyintheveryearly Earth,shortlyafterthesolidicationoftheputative magmaocean.Theonsetofplatetectonicswasfacili- tatedbyaninitiallydrymantle,whichhassincebeen slowlyhydratedbyplatetectonics.WhileEarthhas beencoolingdown,platetectonicshasbeenspeed- ingup,insteadofslowingdown.Thisisbecause acoldermantleleadstothinner,easilydeformable platesandbecausetheeffectofhydrationonviscos- itytendstocanceltheeffectoftemperature.This scenariohasbeenshowntobeinternallyconsis- tentanddynamicallyplausiblebythescalinglaws ofplatetectonics.Thoughbeingunconventionalin nearlyallaspects,itistheonlyhypothesisthatis consistentwithallofmajorobservationsrelevantto Earthsevolution,includingpetrologicalconstraints onthethermalhistory,geochemicalconstraintson thethermalbudget,andgeologicalconstraintson thetempoofplatetectonics,themodeofmantle convection,andtheglobalsealevelchange. Wateristhusexpectedtoplayfundamentalroles intheinitiationofplatetectonicsanditsevolution overEarthshistory.Thephysicsofelementarypro- cessesinvolvingwaterintheabovescenario,how- ever,stillrequiresconsiderablefuturedevelopment. Theplausibilityofthethermalcrackinghypothesis, forexample,needstobetestedfurtherbymod- elingthephysicochemicalevolutionofamultiple cracksystem.Thehypothesishasindirectobserva- tionalsupportthroughitsimpactoneffectivether- malexpansivity, 46 , 47 butmoredirectevidencemay beobtainedbylarge-scaleeldexperiments.Ad- ditionally,therateofwatertransporttothedeep mantlebysubductionshouldbequantiedfrom rstprinciples.Thoughitisahighlycomplexprob- leminvolvingpetrology,mineralphysics,anduid mechanics,itssolutionisessentialforatheorywith predictingpower. Ifaterrestrialplanetstartsoutwithadryman- tleandsurfacewater,whichappearstobealikely initialconditionforsubsolidusmantleconvection, 3 theonsetofplatetectonicsisprobablyjustiable. Predictingitssubsequentevolutionis,however,still aformidabletask.Oneofthemajoruncertainties istheamountofsurfacewater.Onthebasisofthe planetaryformationtheory,theoriginofEarthswa- terisoftenconsideredtobeintheoutersolarsys- tem, 48 andthedeliveryofwaterisahighlystochastic process.Thequantityofwatertobedelivereddoes nothavetobelarge;oneoceanworthofwatercor- respondstoonly0.02%ofEarthsmass.Adifcult partishowtomaintainitoverthegeologicaltime. Theexistenceofaplanetarymagneticeld,which couldprovideashieldagainstsolarwinderosion, 49 dependsontherateofcorecooling.Earthsther- malhistoryindicatesthatthemantlewaswarm- ingupintheearlyEarth(Fig.1).Thecorecould stillhavebeencoolingduringthattimeifthecore wasinitiallysuperheatedbyitsformationprocess, buttoanswerwhetherthecoolingratewassuf- cienttodriveaplanetarydynamo,modelingthe thermalevolutionofacoupledcoremantlesystem wouldbecritical.Understandingtheatmospheric evolutionofagiventerrestrialplanet,oritshab- itabilityatlarge,therefore,requiresustocreatea uniedtheoreticalframeworkthatspansfromthe solarsystemevolutiontothedynamicsofplanetary interior. Acknowledgments ThisworkwassponsoredbyaMicrosoftA.Richard NewtonBreakthroughResearchAward.Theauthor thanksNormSleepforaconstructivereview. Conßictsofinterest Theauthordeclaresnoconictsofinterest. References 1.Kasting,J.F.&D.Catling.2003.Evolutionofahabitable planet. 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