Donato Kiniger Passigli Trento 6 April 2017 Crisis Risk Management Strategies and Opportunities Risk Reduction PreventionMitigationPreparedness incl EW Risk Transfer Residual Risk Response and Recovery ID: 643102
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Crisis risk management
Anticipating Change, Counteracting Fragility Donato Kiniger Passigli Trento, 6 April 2017 Slide2
Crisis Risk Management – Strategies and OpportunitiesRisk Reduction (Prevention/Mitigation/Preparedness( incl. EW)Risk TransferResidual Risk (Response and Recovery)Stagnant Hum./Dev. Funding
Invest in capacities – Strengthening governance – Strengthened resiliencePeople-centered approachCommunity level – Local sources of resilienceSlide3
Conceptual linkages – a forward looking scriptPrevention – to avoid consequences of hazardsPreventing hazardsPreventing exposure (reducing vulnerability)Resilience – capacity to withstand crisis impactAbsorb, react, rebounce of individuals and communitiesPreparedness – making early plans and preparing responseIntegral component of crisis managementStrategies to strengthen resilienceSlide4
Conceptual linkages – a forward looking script
Prevention – to avoid consequences of hazardsPreventing hazardsPreventing exposure (reducing vulnerability)Resilience – capacity to withstand crisis impactAbsorb, react, rebounce of individuals and communitiesPreparedness – making early plans and preparing responseIntegral component of crisis managementStrategies to strengthen resilienceSlide5
Global threats and challengesWorld in a turmoil – overwhelming human consequences, high toll of disasters/conflictsComplexities, risks and vulnerabilitiesNew threats : Climate change (environmental degradation), erosion of trust in governance + multilateralism + social + cultural disruption (polarisation, populism), rapid urbanization (fragile settings), rising migration + displacement, technological advances (genetical engineering & artificial intelligence), future of work
» Interconnected realitySlide6
Fragility factorsSlide7
Humanitarian/development/peace nexusShared responsibility (beyond state level)Tasks : Preventing and resolving conflicts and crisisBuilding resilience and sustainable peaceOne single agenda – peace building and recoveryLong term processes – mix of responses, no-linearSlide8
Anticipatory moves in hum./Dev. RealmRisk and resilience – 2 sides of the same coinMain policies:Integrate resilience in disaster risk reductionImprove coherence between development and humanitarian responses in fragile and conflict-affected situationsBasic humanitarian principles to be observedSlide9
Move/shift to preventionObjective: fragile societies to become more resilient and self-sustainableFrom reaction to anticipationQuestions:What to prevent ? (conflicts/violence/disasters)How to do prevention?How to generate a cultural preventionSlide10
Common goal of sustainable peace and sustainable developmentReduce the scale and costs of humanitarian interventionsConsider peace promotion and development go hand-in-hand, invest in bothPromote a culture of prevention (cultural paradigm shift: better education, inter-communal dialogue)Make development interventions risk informed (simulations? and not risk insensitive)Integrate preparedness and national/local capacity development mechanisms Better preparedness (associated with decent work, income opportunities and strengthen governance)
Sensitivity to local contextGreater integration, coherence, multi-layered, multi-level prevention» The 2030 Agenda for sustainable development cannot be achieved without peace and securitySlide11
Preamble
I. Objectives and scopeII. Guiding principlesStrategic approachesIV. Employment generationV. Rights, equality and non-discriminationVI. Education, vocational training and guidanceVII. Social protectionVIII. Labour law, labour administration and labour market information
XI.
Social dialogue and role of employers’ and workers’ organizations
Refugees and returnees
XI. Prevention, mitigation and preparedness
International cooperation
Other
provisions
Annex
Proposed Recommendation
Employment and decent work
for peace and resilience:
Revision of the Employment (Transition from War to Peace) Recommendation, 1944 (No.71) Slide12Slide13
Catastrophic Events
Health Epidemic
Global
Trade
/
Financial
Crisis
Loss
of investor and consumer confidence
Closure o business
Poverty
Loss of skilled labour
Exploitation of workers
Half to long term development strategies
Weak foreign investment
Lost
productivity and worker absenteeism
Unreliable labour market data
Weak Democratic Governance
Currency fluctuations
Ineffective labour market regulation
Dependence on remittances from diaspora
Sudden loss of productive assets
Reduction of social protection and safety nets
Current account deficits
Elite capture and corruption
Reduction of trade opportunities
Security threats for businesses and workers
Lack of freedom of association
Limited social dialogue opportunities
Infrastructure damages
Unenforced labour standards
Socio-Political Crisis
Disruption of value chains
High levels of un- and under employment
Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills
Erosion of social capital
Destruction of enterprises and workplaces
Depletion of private and public capital stock
Land grabbing
Socio-
Economic
Inequalities and Marginalization
Household debt
Forced labour
(Wage) discrimination
Child Labour
External / Internal Armed Groups
Migratory
Flows
/
Population
Movements
- Sudden influx of
skilled
labour
EgyptSlide14
Catastrophic Events
Health Epidemic
Global
Trade
/
Financial
Crisis
Loss of investor and confidence
Current
account deficits
Dependence on remittances from diaspora
Weak Foreign investment
Constrained access to markets
Sudden loss of productive assets
Reduction of trade opportunities
Weak Democratic Governance
Unenforced labour standards
Ineffective labour market regulation
Unreliable labour market data
Elite capture and corruption
Socio-Political Crisis
Loss of skilled labour
Limited social dialogue opportunities
Half to long-term development strategies
Socio-
Economic
Inequalities and Marginalization
Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills
High levels of un- and under employment
Child labour
Poverty
Erosion of social capital
(Wage) discrimination
Closure of business
External / Internal Armed Groups
Migratory
Flows
/
Population
Movements
Sudden inflow of unskilled labour
Household debt
Infrastructure damages
LebanonSlide15
Catastrophic Events
Constrained access to markets
Infrastructure damages
Erosion of social capital
Sudden loss of productive assets
Depletion of private and public capital stock
Health Epidemic
Reduction of social protection and safety nets
Global
Trade
/
Financial
Crisis
Reduced
aggregate demand
Closure of businesses
Higher operating costs
Disruption of value chains
Weak foreign investment
Dependence on remittances from diaspora
Current account deficits
Reduction of trade opportunities
Weak Democratic Governance
Ineffective labour market regulation
Unenforced labour standards
Unreliable labour market data
Limited social dialogue opportunities
Lack of freedom of association
Loss of investor and consumer confidence
Socio-Political Crisis
Household debt
Elite capture and corruption
Poverty
Child labour
High level of un- and under employment
Socio-
Economic
Inequalities and Marginalization
(Wage) discrimination
Forced displacement of workers
Forced labour
Exploitation of workers
Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills
External / Internal Armed Groups
Halt to long-term development strategies
Land grabbing
Destruction of enterprises and workplaces
Security threats for businesses and workers
Migratory
Flows
/
Population
Movements
Sudden influx of un
skilled
labour
Lost productivity and worker absenteeism
Loss of skilled labour
Yemen