i n Military Operations Liqun Lu Zhaodong Wang Dr Yanfeng Ouyang Nov 15 th 2016 INFORMS 2016 Annual Meeting I L L I N O I S Outline Background Methodology Infrastructure interdependency model ID: 616270
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Interdiction And Restoration Of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems in Military OperationsLiqun Lu, Zhaodong Wang, Dr. Yanfeng OuyangNov. 15th, 2016INFORMS 2016 Annual Meeting
I L
L
I N O I S Slide2
OutlineBackgroundMethodologyInfrastructure interdependency modelInterdiction and restoration optimizationSolution AlgorithmCutting plane algorithmTwo-stage genetic algorithmCase StudyConclusion2Slide3
Military DoctrineLandpower is the ability—by threat, force, or occupation—to gain, sustain, and exploit control over land, resources, and people.Landpower includes the ability to—Impose the Nation’s will on an enemy, by force if necessary.Engage to influence, shape, prevent, and deter in an operational environment.Establish and maintain a stable environment that sets the conditions for political and economic development.Address the consequences of catastrophic events—both natural and man-made—to restore infrastructure and reestablish basic civil services.Support and provide a base from which joint forces can influence and dominate the air and maritime domains of an operational environment.3(Dr. Steve Hart, USMA)Slide4
Break it badFix it Fast
SMART
Military Operation Art
4
(Dr. Steve Hart, USMA)Slide5
Q2Q1ObjectiveDemonstration of military landpower
Phase
II&III
:
maximize the interdiction impact Phase IV :
maximize the restoration benefit
Evaluation of military
operations
Optimization of course of actions
5Slide6
Interdependency ModelSystem disruption propagationPopulation behavior
Infrastructural
interdependency model
Input: interdiction/restoration
Output: infrastructure status and society well-being
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Lu et al. (submitted 2016)Slide7
Failure Propagation MechanismSupport TypeRealizationExampleReason of failureFailureFunctional Support(strong support)D
irect physical infrastructural linksPower cableWater pipeline…
Failure of a
ny one of the support facilities
Support failureResource Support(weak support)Commodity flowFuel delivered by transportationUnsatisfied resource demandResource failure
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Failure Propagation MechanismDiesel tankDiesel generatorWater pump
Functional Support
Resource support
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Example
(a)
→(b): Initial disruption at diesel tank
(b)
→(c): Resource failure at generator
(c)
→(d): Support failure at pump
(b)
→(e): Diesel generator seeks supply from another diesel tank
8Slide9
Interdependency Model FormulationInterdependency function
Functional support
Resource support
Initial disruption
Finite resource capacityFlow conservation(1)(2)
(3)
Restoration
(4)
System equilibrium
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Definition
If there exists
such that
, then
describes an equilibrium in the network, where
is defined by the above constraints
.
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Non-negativity
Resource capacity constraintSlide10
Interdiction stage
Restoration stage
failed
functioning
Interdiction
and Restoration
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Interdiction and RestorationStageDecisionsObjectiveInterdictionSelect facilities to interdict in the intact systemMaximize impactRecoverySelect facilities to restore among the failed onesMaximize restored social functionObjective
Budget constraint
Social welfare constraint
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1st stage objective 2nd
stage objective Slide12
Solution Algorithm12Slide13
Case StudyCity: Maiduguri, NigeriaTotal population of 1.2 millionOccasional natural disasters: flood, draught, etc. Military events and terrorist attacksModel settingSeven layers of infrastructure networks and a community layer20*20 grid transportation network
Uniform interdiction costUse three levels of restoration cost: low/moderate/high
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Case Study14Slide15
Case Study15Slide16
Case Study16Slide17
Case Study17Slide18
Case Study18Slide19
Case Study19Slide20
Case Study20Scenario 0: moderate budgetInterdiction decisionpower transmission
fuel depotInterdiction aftermath
entire power grid
fuel systemwater system
hospitalsImpact on population0% access to water0% access to healthcare100% access to foodSlide21
Case Study21Scenario 0: moderate budgetRestoration decisionpower transmission
too costly to restore fuel depot: only recover one fuel tankRestoration effectiveness
entire power grid
sufficient fuel supplywater vendors
hospitalsImpact on population90% access to water95% access to healthcare92% access to foodSlide22
Case Study22Scenario 1: low budgetInterdiction decisionfuel depotInterdiction aftermath
fuel systemwater vendors
hospitals
Impact on population52% access to water
4% access to healthcare89% access to foodSlide23
Case Study23Scenario 1: low budgetRestoration decision2 fuel tanksRestoration effectiveness
sufficient fuel supplywater vendors
hospitals
Impact on population90% access to water
96% access to healthcare93% access to foodSlide24
Case Study24Scenario 2: high budgetInterdiction decisionpower transmission
fuel depot3 food processing factories
Interdiction aftermath
power gridfuel system
water systemhospitalsfood systemImpact on population0% access to water0% access to healthcare0% access to foodSlide25
Case Study25Scenario 2: high budgetRestoration decisionpower transmissionfuel depot
3 food processing factories Restoration effectiveness
all system back to functioning
Impact on population100% access to water
100% access to healthcare100% access to foodSlide26
Case Study26Scenario 3: moderate budget, no final state constraint and only consider first stage objective (terrorist attack)Interdiction decisionpower transmission
fuel depot2 food processing factories
Interdiction aftermath
power gridfuel system
water systemhospitalsfood systemImpact on population0% access to water0% access to healthcare5% access to foodSlide27
Conclusion and Future WorkThis study investigates the problem where a military force needs to help rebuild the damaged infrastructure system after its interdictionThe problem is modeled as a two-stage optimization, solved using GAInterdiction/restoration actions are evaluated using an infrastructure interdependency model, solved in an embedded cutting plane algorithmCase study on theoretical war-game scenarios reveals interesting results27Slide28
Thank you!28