PUTTING CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MAP DEVELOPING SPECIFIC SPATIAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR WHITEBARK PINE IN THE Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Whitebark pine mortality Keystone species 80 mortality rate within the adult population ID: 1045205
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1. Kathryn Ireland, Andrew Hansen, Robert Keane, Kristin Legg, & Rob GumpPUTTING CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MAP: DEVELOPING SPECIFIC, SPATIAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR WHITEBARK PINE IN THE Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
2. Whitebark pine mortalityKeystone species80% mortality rate within the adult population (MacFarlane et al. 2013)Listed candidate species
3. Whitebark pine management Interagency committee has worked since 1999 to develop a region-wide strategy to protect WBPLittle information on climate change impacts to WBP available to the committee when developing strategy
4. 2004Long-term monitoring initiated2007Climate Change discussed2010Real discussions underwayClimate Change Workshops2011Greater Yellowstone Area Whitebark Pine StrategyCandidate listing2013USGS Climate Science Center WBP Management Project2015Update Adaptation Strategy &Incorporate climate science research2015GN LCC WBP ManagementProject2017Spatial Maps of WBP Management CompleteModeling of WBP management completedClimate science related to WBP: paleo (Iglesias & Whitlock), beetles (Buotte, Logan), modeling, range-wide restoration strategy (Keane), mortality & water balance (Thoma), genetics (Mahalovich)Managers implement whitebark pine protection/restorationManagers learning the basics of climate change; lots of science information becoming available for specific topics such as whitebark pine; many other meetings, trainings, etc., underway
5. Where to prioritize adaptation actions?Zones of Climate Suitability – Yellow Cedar in AlaskaMigrationFavor dispersal to newly suitable habitatsPersistentConservation and active management in occupied suitable habitatMaladaptedFacilitate species transitionsNo active conservation/restoration of yellow cedarHennon et al. (2012). Bioscience.
6. Our goal is to provide information back to the subcommittee for adaptive management under climate changeModeling WBP Management AlternativesIreland, Hansen, Keane
7. Which restoration strategies will be most effective at maintaining resilient WBP forests in the GYA under future climate conditions?Develop & compare spatial management alternatives for WBP in the GYA Strategies designed through workshops/discussions with agency partnerscollaborative approach
8. CompetitionProbabilities of future habitat for:Engelmann spruceSubalpine firLodgepole pineDouglas-firClimate ZonesCoreDeterioratingFutureSpatially Prioritize Management Actions
9. Spatial implementation of current strategyLand AllocationDistance from Roads/trailsPlantThinWFUProtectMultiple Use Forest; NPS non-wilderness > 1 mile XXXMultiple Use Forest; NPS non-wilderness <= 1 mileXXXXWilderness N/A X Nonfederal lands (private, tribal, state, etc)N/A
10. More area treated under climate-informed managementPlantingThinningMPB ProtectionFire Use
11. GYCC STRATEGY CLIMATE-INFORMED STRATEGYtreatment comparisons - plantingProportion of Land Class TreatedMultiple Use ForestNPSWildernessNon-federal
12. Areas of agreement between current/climate-informed management = first priorities for treatment/monitoringAreas of agreement between multiple climate scenarios = experimental treatments/monitoringManagement Recommendations
13. LandscapeSiteStandSpeciesTreeKeane, R.E., R.A. Loehman, and L. M. Holsinger. 2010. Evaluating Management Alternatives: Simulation Modeling with FireBGCv2Area occupied by WBP declines in all future climate scenarios. In some cases, climate-informed management may help maintain WBP in particular locations.
14. APPLICATIONS TO OTHER CLIMATE-VULNERABLE SPECIESCoops and Waring (2011). Ecological Modelling.Require:Conceptual model of direct/indirect climate impacts on conservation targetSpatial information on Target climate vulnerabilityProjected climate change influences on indirect drivers (competition, disturbance, pests, disease, etc.)
15. Funding SourcesMontana Institute on EcosystemsNorth Central Climate Sciences CenterGreat Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative Whitebark Pine Subcommittee of the GYCCEllen Jungck, Shoshone National ForestNancy Bokino, Grand Teton National ParkMary Frances Mahalovich, Moscow Forestry Sciences LaboratoryTony Chang, Montana State UniversityNate Piekieliek, Pennsylvania State UniversityKarl Buermeyer, Helena National ForestAcknowledgements