Interest Rates - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Interest RatesSlide2

The Effective Annual Rate (EAR)

Indicates the total amount of interest that will be earned at the end of one year

The EAR considers the effect of compoundingAlso referred to as the effective annual yield (EAY) or annual percentage yield (APY)

Interest

Rate Quotes

and

AdjustmentsSlide3

Adjusting the Discount Rate to Different

Time Periods

If 5% is the effective annual rate what is the 6-month rate?Earning a 5% return annually is not the same as earning 2.5% every six months.

(1.05)

0.5 – 1= 1.0247 – 1 = .0247 = 2.47%Note: n = 0.5 since we are solving for the six month (or 1/2 year) rate

Interest Rate Quotes and AdjustmentsSlide4

Problem

Suppose your bank account pays interest monthly with an effective annual rate of 5%. What is the interest you will earn in one month? What is the interest you will earn in two years?

We know from above that a 5% EAR is equivalent to earning (1.05)1/12 -1 = .4074% per month.

We can use the same formula to find the two year rate (1.05)

2 – 1 = 10.25% (in particular, not 10%).

ExampleSlide5

The

annual percentage rate (APR)

, indicates the amount of simple interest earned in one year.Simple interest is the amount of interest earned without the effect of compounding.The APR is typically less than the effective annual

rate (EAR

).APR is simply a communication device.Annual Percentage RatesSlide6

The APR itself cannot be used as a discount

rate (except by accident).

The APR with k compounding periods each year is simply a standardized way of quoting the actual interest earned each

compounding

period:Annual Percentage RatesSlide7

Converting an APR to an EAR

The EAR increases with the frequency of compounding.

Continuous compounding is compounding every instant.Annual Percentage RatesSlide8

If the APR is 6% what are the EARs for different compounding intervals?

Annual compounding: (1 + 0.06/1)

1 – 1 = 6%Semiannual compounding: (1 + 0.06/2)2 – 1 = 6.09%

Monthly compounding: (1 + 0.06/12)

12 – 1 = 6.1678%Daily compounding: (1 + 0.06/365)365 – 1 = 6.1831%A 6% APR with continuous compounding results in an EAR of approximately 6.1837

%. This is an abstraction we will not make much use of in this course.Annual Percentage RatesSlide9

You are offered a chance to buy a perpetuity paying a $100 per year (beginning in one year) for $1,650 today. You are able to borrow and lend money at a 6% APR with monthly compounding. Should you buy the perpetuity?

First we must find the EAR since the perpetuity makes annual payments. The effective annual rate is (1+0.06/12)

12 – 1 = 6.16778%. The value of the perpetuity is $100/0.0616778 = $1,621.33.

ExampleSlide10

Inflation and Real Versus Nominal Rates

Nominal Interest Rate:

The rates quoted by financial institutions and used for discounting or compounding cash flowsReal Interest Rate: The rate of growth of your purchasing power, after adjusting for inflation

Determinants

of Interest RatesSlide11

The Real Interest Rate

Determinants of

Interest RatesSlide12

Problem

In the year 2006, the average 1-year Treasury

rate was about 4.93% and the rate of inflation was about 2.58%. What was the real interest rate in 2006?

Solution

Using the equation given above, the real interest rate in 2006 was:(4.93% − 2.58%) ÷ (1.0258) = 2.29%Which is approximately equal to the difference between the nominal rate and inflation: 4.93% – 2.58% = 2.35%

ExampleSlide13

An increase in interest rates will typically reduce the NPV of an investment.

Consider an investment that requires an initial investment of $3 million and generates a cash flow of $1 million per year for four years. If the interest rate is 4%, the investment has an NPV of:

Recall the number $0.629 million means something very specific. What is it?

Investment Policy and Interest RatesSlide14

If the interest rate jumps to 15%, the NPV of this investment becomes negative and we would not undertake such a project.

Investment Policy and Interest RatesSlide15

Term Structure:

The relationship between the investment term and the interest rate

Yield Curve: A graph of the term structureThe Yield Curve and Discount RatesSlide16

Term

Structure of Risk-Free U.S. Interest Rates, January 2004, 2005, and 2006Slide17

Example

When the yield curve is not flat we must discount future cash flows at the appropriate rates.

Compute the present value of a risk-free

three-year annuity of $500 per year, given

the following yield curve:Slide18

Example

Solution

Each cash flow must be discounted by the corresponding interest rate

:

It is

very important to note that even though this is a 3-year annuity, we cannot use the annuity formula to find its present value.Slide19

The shape of the yield curve is influenced by interest rate expectations.

An inverted yield curve indicates that interest rates are expected to decline in the future.

Because interest rates tend to fall in response to an economic slowdown, an inverted yield curve is often interpreted as a negative forecast for economic growth. Each of the last six recessions in the United States was preceded by a period in which the yield curve was inverted.

The Yield Curve and the EconomySlide20

The shape of the yield curve is influenced by interest rate expectations.

A steep yield curve generally indicates that interest rates are expected to rise in the future.

The yield curve tends to be sharply increasing as the economy comes out of a recession and interest rates are expected to rise.

The Yield Curve and the

EconomySlide21

Risk and Interest Rates

U.S. Treasury securities are considered “risk-free.” All other borrowers have some risk of default, so investors require a higher rate of return.

The yield curve is commonly presented in terms of risk free yields but one can also examine a AAA or AA yield curve at any point in time.When computing the present value of future cash flows that are risky we adjust the discount rate to account for the risk.

Risk and Discount RatesSlide22

Taxes reduce the amount of interest an investor can keep, and we refer to this reduced amount as the

after-tax interest rate

.After-Tax Interest RatesSlide23

Opportunity Cost of Capital:

The best available expected return offered in the capital market on an investment of comparable risk and term (investment horizon) to the cash flow being discounted

Also referred to as Cost of Capital

The Opportunity Cost of Capital