CRISTIAN MARTINEZVILLALOBOS 1 and J DAVID NEELIN 1 2017 AGU FALL MEETING NEW ORLEANS DeCEMBER 14 2017 1 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences UCLA LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE ID: 750801
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Shifts in PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTIONS DURING THE WARM SEASON OVER THE UNITED STATES
CRISTIAN MARTINEZ-VILLALOBOS1 and J. DAVID NEELIN12017 AGU FALL MEETING, NEW ORLEANSDeCEMBER 14, 2017
1
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLASlide2
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
Accumulation
PreCIPITATION
INTENSITY
Duration1in=25.4mm
Slide3
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
Accumulation
PreCIPITATION
INTENSITY
Duration1in=25.4mm
Slide4
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
Accumulation
PreCIPITATION
INTENSITY
DUration
cutoff
Slide5
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
Accumulation
PreCIPITATION
INTENSITY
DUration
cutoff
Slide6
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
Accumulation
PreCIPITATION
INTENSITY
DUration
Slide7
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
ACCumulation pdf
,
DAILY PRECIPITATION (P) PDF
Daily
PRECipitation
CUTOFF
Slide8
LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY CUTOFF SCALE
ACCumulation pdf
,
DAILY PRECIPITATION (P) PDF
Daily
PRECipitation
CUTOFF
Slide9
STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPE FOR ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTIONS (STECHMANN AND NEELIN 2014)
In precipitating state (for
)
Moisture
dependent precipitation pickup
Peters and
Neelin
2006,
Neelin
et al., 2008, 2009Slide10
STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPE FOR ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTIONS (STECHMANN AND NEELIN 2014)
In precipitating state (for
)
Slide11
STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPE FOR ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTIONS (STECHMANN AND NEELIN 2014)
In precipitating state (for
)
Moisture loss by precipitation accumulation
Slide12
STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPE FOR ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTIONS (STECHMANN AND NEELIN 2014)
In precipitating state (for
)
Variations in
moisture convergence/divergenceSlide13
STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPE FOR ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTIONS (STECHMANN AND NEELIN 2014)
STECHMANN AND NEELIN 2014
variance of moisture convergence/divergence
Slide14
CUTOFF SCALE
EXPECTED TO SCALE UP WITH GLOBAL WARMING (NEELIN ET AL., 2017)
increases
increases Slide15
CUTOFF SCALE
EXPECTED TO SCALE UP WITH GLOBAL WARMING (NEELIN ET AL., 2017)
increases
increases
Neelin
et al. 2017Slide16
CUTOFF SCALE
EXPECTED TO SCALE UP WITH GLOBAL WARMING (NEELIN ET AL., 2017)
increases
increases
Neelin
et al. 2017
Neelin
et al. 2017Slide17
hourly precipitation data
Hourly precipitation data (NOAA Climate Data Online System); using1979-2013, May-Oct.
Stations with 30 or more years of data and completeness of 80% at leastOver 1200 stations over the continental US meet these criteria
Data reported at 0.1 inch intervals
Data aggregated into 7 climate regions (following 4
th
National Climate Assessment Report)Focus on accumulations (from start to end of rain event); use to interpret daily-average intensities (e.g., Karl and Knight 1998, Kunkel et al., 1999, Higgins and Kousky 2013, Kunkel et al., 2013, Huang et al., 2017, Easterling et al., 2017)Slide18
hourly precipitation data
Hourly precipitation data (NOAA Climate Data Online System); using1979-2013, May-Oct.
Stations with 30 or more years of data and completeness of 80% at leastOver 1200 stations over the continental US meet these criteria
Data reported at 0.1 inch intervals
Data aggregated into 7 climate regions (following 4
th
National Climate Assessment Report)Focus on accumulations (from start to end of rain event); use to interpret daily-average intensities (e.g., Karl and Knight 1998, Kunkel et al., 1999, Higgins and Kousky 2013, Kunkel et al., 2013, Huang et al., 2017, Easterling et al., 2017)Slide19
hourly precipitation data
Wuebbles et al., 2017
Hourly precipitation data (NOAA Climate Data Online System); using1979-2013, May-Oct.
Stations with 30 or more years of data and completeness of 80% at least
Over 1200 stations over the continental US meet these criteria
Data reported at 0.1 inch intervalsData aggregated into 7 climate regions (following 4th National Climate Assessment Report)Focus on accumulations (from start to end of rain event); use to interpret daily-average intensities (e.g., Karl and Knight 1998, Kunkel et al., 1999, Higgins and Kousky 2013, Kunkel et al., 2013, Huang et al., 2017, Easterling et al., 2017)Slide20
CUTOFF SCALE
longer for wetter Local climate
Accumulation cutoff
Accumulation moments ratio
(Peters et al., 2010,
Stechmann
and
Neelin
2014)
Slide21
CUTOFF SCALE
longer for wetter Local climate
Accumulation cutoff
Accumulation moments ratio
(Peters et al., 2010,
Stechmann
and
Neelin
2014)
Slide22
CUTOFF SCALE
longer for wetter Local climate
Accumulation cutoff
Accumulation moments ratio
(Peters et al., 2010,
Stechmann
and
Neelin
2014)
Daily Precipitation cutoff
Daily
precip
moments ratio
Slide23
CUTOFF SCALE
longer for wetter Local climate
Accumulation cutoff
Accumulation moments ratio
(Peters et al., 2010,
Stechmann
and
Neelin
2014)
Daily Precipitation cutoff
Daily
precip
moments ratio
Slide24
INCREASE IN CUTOFF SCALE
IN SEVERAL REGIONS. LARGEST INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
Data divided in two periods:
i
) 1979-1995
ii) 1997-2013Slide25
INCREASE IN CUTOFF SCALE
IN SEVERAL REGIONS. LARGEST INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
Data divided in two periods:
i
) 1979-1995
ii) 1997-2013Changes in cutoff scale 97-13 relative to 79-95 Slide26
INCREASE IN CUTOFF SCALE
IN SEVERAL REGIONS. LARGEST INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
Data divided in two periods:
i
) 1979-1995
ii) 1997-2013Changes in cutoff scale 97-13 relative to 79-95 Slide27
INCREASE IN CUTOFF SCALE
IN SEVERAL REGIONS. LARGEST INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
Easterling et al., 2017Slide28
CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION OCCURs for the LARGEST ACCUMULATIONSSlide29
CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION OCCURs for the LARGEST ACCUMULATIONSSlide30
CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION OCCURs for the LARGEST ACCUMULATIONSSlide31
INCREASES IN RISK ratio consistent with theory for exponential increase with the size of event
* ~200% in the Northeast for the highest exceedances that are well resolvedSlide32
INCREASES IN RISK ratio consistent with theory for exponential increase with the size of event
* ~200% in the Northeast for the highest exceedances that are well resolvedSlide33
INCREASES IN RISK ratio consistent with theory for exponential increase with the size of event
* ~200% in the Northeast for the highest exceedances that are well resolvedSlide34
INCREASES IN RISK ratio consistent with theory for exponential increase with the size of eventSlide35
INCREASES IN RISK ratio consistent with theory for exponential increase with the size of eventSlide36
Accumulations and DAILY Precipitation: OBSERVATIONS AND STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPESSlide37
Accumulations and DAILY Precipitation: OBSERVATIONS AND STOCHASTIC PROTOTYPESSlide38
SUMMARY
Theory for accumulations can explain observed distributions.Large event cutoffs increase in several regions when comparing 1997-2013 relative to 1979-1995.
Which leads to ~ exponential increase in risk ratio for the highest accumulation and daily precipitation percentiles.
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