Lessons learned Sofia Dermisi Roosevelt University USA 20 th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference Presentation Outline Previous research Study focus Research questionsMethodology ID: 606603
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Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSofia DermisiRoosevelt UniversityUSA
20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide2
Presentation
Outline
Previous researchStudy focusResearch questions/MethodologyDataGlobal/city spatial distributions - Historical directional distributionsResultsConclusions22Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide3
Previous
research
Barr J. – 2012 provides evidence of height competition during boom times in New York cityBarr J., B. Mizrach, and K. Mundra – 2011 found a lack of international relationship between skyscraper’s height and business cyclesBarclays skyscraper index claims a link of the world’s tallest buildings and impeding financial crisis from 1930 – 2010Barr J. – 2010 study of the Manhattan skyline provides evidence of links between building height and completions as functions of market fundamentals and builders’ egos. 33Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide4
Study focus characteristics:
Existing office buildings with minor retail component Buildings are located in four regions (Asia, Europe, Middle East and USA) The height of the buildings is 183m (600 ft) or more 44Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide5
Research questions/Methodology
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What is the spatial distributions of office skyscrapers across regions/countries/cities? - GIS mapping – directional distribution (using the standard deviational ellipse) 2) Effects of external and internal conditions on skyscraper heights? - Fixed –effect regression controlling for countries (or cities) while clustering by the year the buildings were completed and weighted by the gross building area.- skyscraper height: in meters- i: takes values from 1 through n representing each of the skyscrapers among 4 regions (Asia, Europe, Middle East and US)- Pr: includes the variables - completion year, number of elevators, the difference between construction finish- start, and dummy variables for recessions and type of structural material- Ec: GDP/capita and unemployment rate- η: reflects the country or city specific characteristics which are time invariant. - c: clustering of skyscraper completion year.55Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide6
Data
Office skyscrapers:
Address, height, square feet, construction start/completion, number of elevators and structural material (sources: Council of Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, Emporis.com, Building’s websites)Economic: Recessions (from 1860- 2011) , GDP/capita and unemployment rate (sources: NBER , BLS, World Bank, tradingeconomics.com, countries ministries or other reports)Outcomes:82.3% of office skyscrapers across three regions (Asia, Europe and Middle East) is located in AsiaThe highest concentration of skyscrapers is in the USA (198) rapidly followed by China (185)66Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide7
Global spatial distributions
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Global spatial distributions
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Global spatial distributions
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Country spatial distributions
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10Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceSlide11
City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions
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11Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceMore than 20 skyscrapersSlide12
City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions
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12Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceMore than 20 skyscrapersSlide13
City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions
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13Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceMore than 20 skyscrapersSlide14
City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions
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14Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceMore than 20 skyscrapersSlide15
City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions
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15Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned20th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceMore than 20 skyscrapersSlide16
Descriptive statistics:
Asian office skyscrapers
represent: 50.3% among the four regions followed by the US with 38.9%82.3% among the three multi-country regions (Asia, Europe and Middle East) Skyscraper measurements are comparable among regions161620th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceAgglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide17
Descriptive statistics:
Skyscrapers in China represent 64% of the total number across Asia
Skyscraper measurements are comparable among Asian countries beyond completion year171720th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceAgglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide18
Descriptive statistics:
Europe lacks:
- significant skyscraper presence - significant completions in recent years181820th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceAgglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide19
Descriptive statistics:
Middle East:
Lacks significant skyscraper presenceSkyscrapers are recently completed191920th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceAgglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide20
Descriptive statistics:
US cities (10 or more skyscrapers):
Lack significant new skyscraper completionsSkyscrapers measurements are comparable202020th Annual European Real Estate Society ConferenceAgglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide21
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Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedInternal & external conditions do not share a consistent effect on skyscraper’s height across all regionsSkyscraper heights of buildings commencing construction during a recession are lower compared to other periods in Asia & Middle EastLonger construction times are associated with shorter skyscrapers in EuropeAn increase in GDP/capita and unemployment rate leads to unexpected effects in the Middle East and the US, respectivelyResults Effects of external and internal conditions on skyscraper heights Slide22
Internal & external conditions do not share a consistent effect on
skyscraper’s height across all countries
Skyscraper heights of buildings commencing construction during a recession are lower compared to other periods in both China & JapanAn increase in unemployment rate is associated with a less expected increase in skyscraper’s heights for the US 22Results Effects of external and internal conditions on skyscraper heights 22Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide23
Conclusions – part 1
Only 7 countries around the world have more than 10 skyscrapers (CN, JP, KR, MY, SG, UAE & US)
The oldest skyscrapers worldwide are located in the USA (avrg. completion year 1979) and the newest in S. Korea* (avrg. completion year 2003)The directional distributions show significant spatial shifts in skyscraper development across all cities with more than 20 skyscrapersAsian office skyscrapers represent 82.3% of the three multi-country regions (Asia, Europe and Middle East) with China having the largest footprintEurope has almost a non existing skyscraper footprint compared to the other three regionsMiddle East has a small but continuously increasing number of newer skyscrapers*countries with 10 or more skyscrapers2323Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learnedSlide24
Conclusions – part 2
Recessions during construction
starts decrease skyscraper’s height in Asia (9.9%) and Middle East (42.8%). The decrease reaches 12.6% in China and 13.6% in Japan.The type of construction material (composite, steel and concrete) affect positively building height mainly in Asia and the US.Increase in unemployment levels have an opposite effect on skyscraper’s height in Europe (-26.3%) and the US (13.9%). Japan has a similar trend with Europe experiencing a 13.7% decrease.The results of this study are aligned with other studies but further exploration of the data is required.2424Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned