The Australian Experience Professor Will Steffen Climate Councillor Outline of Talk Extreme heat and heatwaves in Australia Consequences for Australians Future heat risks and responses ID: 304886
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HEAT!!!The Australian Experience
Professor Will SteffenClimate CouncillorSlide2
Outline of Talk
Extreme heat and
heatwaves
in Australia
Consequences for Australians
Future heat: risks and responses Slide3
Trend in annual average temperature
Source: Bureau of Meteorology 2015Slide4
Averages and extremesBased on IPCC 2007
Adapted from IPCC 2007Slide5
Hot weather is increasingSlide6
Continental-scale heatwaveSource:
Bureau of MeteorologySlide7
HeatwavesHeatwaves are becoming more intense, lasting
longer and occurring more often. More frequent and hotter days are projected for the future.
CSIRO and BoM 2015Slide8
2013: Australia’s Hottest Year on RecordVirtually Impossible without Climate ChangeSource: Knutson et al. 2014Slide9
Bushfires Slide10
High Fire Danger WeatherSources: Clark et al. 2013; Jones et al. 2013
MELBOURNE AREASlide11
Bushfires and Climate ChangeClimate change makes bushfire conditions worse by increasing the frequency of very hot days.Between 1973 and 2010 the Forest Fire Danger Index increased significantly at 16 of 38 weather stations across Australia, mostly in the southeast. None of the stations showed a significant decrease.
Projected increases in hot days across Australia, and in dry conditions in the southwest and southeast, will very likely lead to more days with extreme fire danger in those regions.Slide12
Source: Vic DHS 2009
Melbourne 2009
heatwaveSlide13
Extreme heat and healthExtreme heat causes more deaths than any other natural hazard
in Australia.Recorded deaths from specific extreme heat events: 374 excess deaths, Melbourne, Jan-Feb 2009 23% increase in deaths, Brisbane, Feb 2004
110 excess deaths, Sydney, Jan 1994
Without adaptation,
heatwaves
projected to cause over 400 excess deaths per year by 2050 in Victoria along (a southern Australian state).Sources: DHS 2009; Tong et al. 2010; Gosling et al. 2007; Keating and Handmer 2013 Slide14
Extreme heat and worker productivityExtreme heat in 2013/2014 drove an annual economic burden
of nearly $8 billion via worker productivity lossesHeat stress in northern Australia has reduced labour
capacity by
10% in past few decades; further 10% drop projected by 2050
Loss of worker productivity globally due to heat stress projected
to be as high as USD 1 trillion by 2030.Sources: Zander et al. 2015; Dunne et al. 2013; Kjellstrom and McMichael 2013 Slide15
Heatwaves and infrastructureSlide16
Infrastructure damage from the 2009 Melbourne heatwave
An estimated 500,000 residents were without electricity on evening of 30 Jan.Extensive damage to railways:
29 cases of rail tracks buckling
Electrical faults in signaling
Failure of air-conditioning in more than 50% of trainsSlide17Slide18
Extreme heat and natural ecosystemsMarine heatwaves
have caused repeated coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef since the late 1970s.Heatwaves
combined with extended drought have caused mass
mortality in koalas.
Since 1994, more than 30,000 flying foxes have died in extreme
heat. On 12 Jan 2012, over 3,500 were killed along the NSW coast when temperatures exceeded 42oC. In Jan 2010 in Western Australia, over 200 of the endangered Carnoby’s black cockatoos were killed when temperatures rose to 48oC.Sources: Saunders et al. 2011; Welbergen et al. 2008; Gordon et al. 1998 Slide19
CSIRO and BoM 2015More heat to comeSlide20Slide21
Stabilising
the climate system
Meinshausen
et al. 2009Slide22Slide23
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