POLICY EXCHANGE HE reform 20102015 problems solved or problems delayed Jonathan Simons Head of Education Policy Exchange PXEducation Browne and associated reforms in English HE system Fees capped at 9k any fee over 6k should be partially invested in fair access ID: 364422
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JONATHAN SIMONS
POLICY EXCHANGESlide2
HE reform 2010-2015– problems solved or problems delayed?
Jonathan Simons
Head of Education, Policy Exchange
@PXEducationSlide3
Browne and associated reforms in English HE system
Fees capped at £9k; any fee over £6k should be partially invested in fair access
Repayments start at £21k with write off after 30 years
Return of means tested grants
New duty on schools to provide independent, impartial careers guidance. All universities to provide Key Information Sets
Core and margin with reallocation of place to
high
quality institutions charging below £7,500
No student number controls on AAB students (since changed to ABB, and student number controls to be abolished entirely from 2015-16) Slide4
Scottish HE system
4 year courses rather than 3 (some RUK students can enter in Y2)
Differential tuition fees for students from Scotland and EU as opposed to England, Wales, N Ireland (RUK) – who are charged up to the same £9k as in England
“Rocks will melt in the sun” before Scottish students charged tuition fees under SNP GovernmentSlide5
Welsh HE system
Welsh Government have protected the cuts to teaching grant to 12% to universities in Wales (against 80% in England) but also raised tuition fee cap to £9k
Welsh students studying in Wales or England were eligible for subsidy to deal with higher fees – tuition fees capped at £3,575 wherever they study, which costs the Welsh Government around £4,500 per student annually. Figures show a move of Welsh students to English universities
Sir Ian Diamond undertaking consultation into higher education funding in Wales, but not due to report back until 2016Slide6
Problems solved?Slide7
HE funding (England)Slide8
Student numbers across UKSlide9
Student numbers across UKSlide10
Student satisfactionSlide11
Problems delayed?Slide12
Already calls for more funding increasesSlide13
...at the same time as some political desire to cut them againSlide14
What about non first time full time undergraduates?Slide15
Is the current system in the UK sustainable? England
Total value of outstanding loans (including interest) is currently £46 billion. It is projected to top out at £200bn by 2042 in 2013 prices)Slide16
Is the current system in the UK sustainable? England
NAO found that of the current loan book, BIS estimate 35% will never be repaid, and up to 50% of post 2012 loans will not. However, worth remembering that this is the point (and consequence) of a deliberate policy decisionSlide17
Is the current system in the UK sustainable? Scotland
So much hangs on what might happen post independence referendum
If yes:
Most pertinently, the future of the differential tuition fee policy – would it be legal?
What about research council income
Future student flows and staff flows
Potential £9.8bn shortfall in USS pension scheme (analogy of Academy status in schools in pertinent here)
If no:
Is the differential
tuition
fee policy affordable – and is it value for money? Look at student increases in different nations of the UKSlide18
Is the current system in the UK sustainable? Wales
Will Diamond review mean the end of the tuition fee subsidy for Welsh students? £35m annually going outside of Wales (mostly to England)
Will we see more M+A activity amongst institutions to strengthen overall quality (Cardiff ranked 29
th
in UK, highest in Wales, and only three Welsh institutions in top 100)Slide19
Conclusions
Lots of change, particularly in England and Wales, since 2010
On surface, system looks positive in England and Scotland
But overall lots of issues remain to be resolved
Is the English system affordable to the Exchequer, and specifically to BIS. Will a graduate tax come in and if so how on earth will it be managed. Will fees rise
along
with new students?
Will the Scottish system survive in its current form post any yes vote in independence? And if a no vote, will a non SNP government look at introducing fees for Scottish students?
How can Wales ensure better value for money? And should they focus on Welsh students, or the Welsh system?Slide20
Conclusions
There will be a ‘conspiracy of silence’ amongst parties in UK General Election in 2015
In Independence referendum in 2014 and Welsh Assembly elections in 2016 it will be debated more intently but in absence of many proven facts....
We may well have to have – reluctantly – another major review in all three nations, especially England, midway through next ParliamentSlide21
JONATHAN SIMONS
POLICY EXCHANGE