NIU 2022 - PowerPoint Presentation

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NIU 2022

Be the hub of a smart nation, heart of the world brain

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UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M.

Keagle

, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"Slide2

Taking NIU to the Next Level

Existing NIU Strategy achieved an IC-Centric academic baselineExisting NIU Strategy could be enhanced in four major ways:

Top Secret Centric – let’s improve teaching of Open Source Intelligence

IC/DOD Centric – let’s train to do Whole of Government – all agencies, all policies, all true costs in support of Presidential management of the wholeUSG Centric – let’s teach access to

uncleared

people and organizations US Centric – let’s teach access to multinational &non-governmentalExisting NIU offerings could be augmented by:Claiming ownership of “the craft of intelligence”Maintaining a “24/7”/ Help Desk—with a push/pull dynamic – need bothExploring how we can be the hub of a Smart Nation & World BrainOUR OBJECTIVE: be the hub for pioneering IC access to all information in all languages/all cultures on & off the internet all of the time…and teaching that so that our IC sponsors see a Return on Investment (ROI).

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UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M.

Keagle

, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"Slide3

Truth for Decision-Support

Never mind the mottos, let’s focus on reality.“Until you get the truth on the table, no matter how ugly it is, you are not in a position to deal with it.”

CEO Bob Seelert, Saatchi & Saatchi World Wide (New York City)

UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M.

Keagle

, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"

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The NIU Advantage: teaching our students to add value to sources with the intangible human factor.Slide4

Is the IC Relevant? Trusted?

“I don’t trust U.S. intelligence information.” Donald Trump (2016)“80% of what I needed to know as CINCCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20% if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge.” General Tony

Zinni, USMC

“USSOCOM J-26 (OSINT) answered 40% of all SOF EEI with 22 people and $5 million. Roughly 20% of the EEI were answered by classified and 40% were not answered at all. No one in the IC is held accountable for failing to answer a collection requirement.” USSOCOM ContractorOur shared objective should be to make NIU the gold standard for defining how to create trusted relevant actionable decision-support.

UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M.

Keagle

, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"4Slide5

Breaking Good…

For 30+ years we have addressed in a somewhat limited fashion:

Validating classified intelligence from sources that turn out to be wrongGlobal Coverage, e.g. emerging threats, non-military threats, non-state actorsIntegrated political, economic/true cost, and socio-demographic analytics

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) done right (Active OSINT)Integrated analytic tool-kits with full access to all sources (e.g. CATALYST)Near-real-time geo-tagged processing of both open and classified information

Support to military acquisition including true cost economics

Support to diplomacy & commerce to justify peace investments

1980’s: US Army GRAND VIEW and USMC Strategic Generalizations1990’s: Nordic calls for integrated multinational intelligence centers2000’s: Emergence of commercial intelligence isolated from ICNIU can be the focal point for reinventing the “craft of intelligence.”UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M. Keagle, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"

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Humans Matter and so do machines

Our communications and computing systems are anachronistic.

We still have dozens of separate databases and access protocols—must move toward common data standards for mining, fusion and sharing. End I own it; it’s mine culture.Analysts still spend too much time restoring access and searching systems designed for stove-piped customers. Speed of the OODA loop for decision space is shrinking.

Collectors are still indiscriminate—we process 1% of what we collect—and that collection is growing exponentially. We need to understand learning styles—synoptic and ectenic—as well as age groups—young digital natives and older digital immigrants—and the integration of humans and machines in deduction, induction and abduction reasoning…think

Augmented Human Intelligence as well as Artificial Intelligence

. It is about the interface and integration.

Human networks—among analysts and collectors, overt human sources, and customers—are the bridges going forward.We need to train and empower analysts to manage money, manage overt human information networks securely and with permissions, and manage customer relations at all levels from desk officers to Cabinet. Human networking takes time—reduce time on machines, increase human time?The NIU Help Desk – a “24/7” Help Desk/Faculty Mentor, availability, if approved by the IC leadership, can begin to address our human to human gaps and make the student-faculty relationship life-long. There is no expiration date on NIU direct support.

UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M.

Keagle

, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"

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2022 Objective State?

NIU will be “home base” for every IC leader, analyst, & collector, with special courses for budget staffs

so that they “get” what we do/need. NIU will be the default “fixer” on call for any educational short-fall – on a just in time basis via the “24/7” Help Desk and our faculty network, with on-site Mobile Training Team (MTT) as needed, with rapidly designed special courses as needed, mini

operationalsabbaticals, and more….NIU will empower entry-level employees with structured knowledge

not

available from outside the IC

NIU will help older employees absorb new structured knowledge from outside the IC they do not have time to acquire but need to knowNIU will elevate STEM knowledge (including cyber) across the IC.Net Net: NIU will help the IC do more with less – the best “ROI” in the IC.UNCLASSIFIED -- Dr. James M. Keagle, Col USAF (Ret) aka "Kegs"

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