December 2015 2 Total Economy Slight improvement in economic growth in the EU in the last two years after a doubledip recession According to EU forecasts this trend will continue in 2016 and 2017 ID: 490094
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Slide1
Economic Overview
December
2015Slide2
2Slide3
Total EconomySlide4
Slight improvement in economic growth in the EU in the last two years after a “double-dip” recession.
According to EU forecasts, this trend will continue in 2016 and 2017.
Source
: AMECO
4Slide5
The economic growth is forecast to further pick up in 2016.
At least 1% GDP increase in every country but two if the predictions materialise.
5Slide6
Increased GDP volume is expected in all European countries in 2017.
At least 1.1% in every country, but these forecasts might prove too optimistic.
6Slide7
The annual production value was just above the pre-crisis level in the EU in 2014.
Spain had lost 6.3%, Italy 9.0% and Greece 26.0%.
7Slide8
Big differences with respect to GDP per capita in Europe.
Four countries below 8 000 euros per year. The EU average was 27 400 euros in 2014
.
No data for
Turkey.
8Slide9
A bit more equality when differences in purchasing power are eliminated.
No data for
Turkey.
9Slide10
Industry (NACE B-E) accounted for 18.9% of total value added in 2014.
B
= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
10Slide11
The total employment in EU-28 was reduced by 6.8 million from 2008 to 2013.
It will take another few years before we again see the level of 2008.
Source:
AMECO
11Slide12
The percentage growth for EU-28 will be 0.8% in 2016 according to the latest forecast from the Commission (November 2015).
The highest growth in total employment is expected in Spain (2.6%).
Source:
AMECO
12Slide13
The forecast for 2017 is 0.9% for EU-28.
Again we find the highest growth figures for southern European countries.
13Slide14
E
mployment still below pre-crisis levels in the EU-28 and EA-19.
Turkey most positive with 25.1% increase since 2007.
14Slide15
Industry (NACE B-E) accounted for 15.6% of employment in the EU-28 last year.
B
= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supplyE = Water supply
15Slide16
Big differences between the countries.
The working hours are longest in Poland.
No data for Turkey, Norway, Switzerland and some others.
16Slide17
The average number of yearly working hours lower than in 2007 in most countries.
No data for Turkey, Norway, Switzerland and some others.
17Slide18
More than 10% unemployment in EU-28 last year.
Big differences between the countries.
Spain and Greece both over 24%.
No data for Switzerland.
18Slide19
Unprecedentedly high levels of unemployed people under 25 years.
Spain and Greece over 50%. Only two countries below 10
%.
No data for Switzerland.
19Slide20
A 4.5% growth in productivity in the EU since 2007.
Nine countries above 10%. Highest increases in new EU member states, Ireland and Spain.
No data for Turkey.
20Slide21
Nominal wage increases have exceeded real labour productivity growth in all countries except
Greece, Ireland and Cyprus since 2007.
21Slide22
Real unit labour cost has fallen in twelve countries since 2007, meaning that the wage share of GDP has gone down and the capital share has grown.
22Slide23
Germany had a surplus in its foreign trade of 215 billion euros last year.
France and UK had deficits of 162 million between them.
23Slide24
The Netherlands exported goods and services worth 180 billion euros more than it imported from other EU member states last year.
24Slide25
Germany has the highest trade surplus with countries outside the EU.
25Slide26
Industry Slide27
EU average 18.9% when mining, petroleum production and energy supply are included.
Norway on top because of big oil and gas sector.
No data for Turkey.
27Slide28
Manufacturing sector has greatest relative significance in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and Germany.
EU average is 15.3%.
No data for Turkey.
28Slide29
Industrial production in the EU-28 seems to be levelling out.
Source: Eurostat, Short-term business statistics.
29Slide30
Most positive developments in new EU member
s
tates
Stagnation in Germany. Down in EU-28 and EA-19: 8-9%.Four countries have lost more than 20%.
No data for Switzerland.
30Slide31
Biggest reduction in the
mining sector and clothes’ production sector since 2007.
31Slide32
Industrial employment in the EU was 3.9 million lower in 2014 than in 2008.
The level is almost as high as in 2010.
Slight increase in 2014.
32Slide33
Germany has 8 million jobs in industry.
8 countries above one million, also Romania and the Czech Republic. Poland is now number 3.
No data for Turkey.
33Slide34
Almost all countries in the red. Industrial employment heavily under pressure. Germany only positive exception. Reduction in Spain close to 30%. Average drop in EU and EA higher than 10%.
No data for Turkey, Switzerland, Norway and some others.
34Slide35
All sectors are in the red but MET industries, energy supply and pharmaceuticals have done better than the rest.
35Slide36
Increase in seven countries, but not very dramatic.
No data for Turkey, Switzerland, Norway and some others.
36Slide37
In EU real labour productivity per hour in the industry has gone slightly up since the onset of the crisis.
Increase
in Romania: 67.3%.
No data for Turkey, Switzerland, Norway and some others.
37Slide38
Big variations with respect to wages per employed person (total gross wages divided by number of employees).
No data for Turkey, Switzerland and some others.
38Slide39
The lowest average gross wages in industry are just over 3 euros per hour.
No data for Norway, Turkey, Switzerland and some others
.
39Slide40
Wage increases highest in
the East and South E
ast
since the crisis.
40Slide41
Low inflation rates in most countries since the onset of the crisis.
Highest growth in Turkey and Iceland.
EU average only 15.4% in eight years. Even lower in the euro zone
.
41Slide42
Exceptionally low inflation in 2014.
Only 0.4% in EA-19.
Turkey (not in chart) had 8.9%.
42Slide43
Growth in most countries, but in Cyprus, the UK and Luxembourg real wages per hour in industry have actually fallen since the crisis began.
No data for Norway, Turkey, Switzerland and some others.
43Slide44
Gross wages and salaries have increased faster than production in almost all European countries since 2007.
The average increase in EU-28 was 18.9%.
44Slide45
The picture is diverse.
Germany, Italy, France and Spain are among the countries with increased RULC in the industry since 2007.
45Slide46
Industrial
companies have increased their producer prices in most countries since 2007 (by more than 20% in nine countries).
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