Ruth Naylor amp Amir Jones 1 How conflict impacts on education Forced displacement Public health Household labour Reduced returns to education Reduced expenditure public amp private Reduced public capacity ID: 236059
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Slide1
The quantitative impact of conflict on education
Ruth Naylor & Amir JonesSlide2
1. How conflict impacts on educationSlide3Slide4Slide5
Forced displacement
Public health
Household labour
Reduced returns to education
Reduced expenditure (public & private)
Reduced public capacity
Total impactSlide6
2. The human costs: out-of-school childrenSlide7
The quantitative impact of conflict on education
Key global statistics:
57 million
out of school children (OOSC) globally (primary school aged)
28.5 million
of these live in conflict affected countries (UNESCO)
2-3 million
IDP and refugee children out of school (primary school aged)
Hundreds of thousands
of students have their education interrupted by targeted attacksSlide8
EMIS data,
primary
school aged
Survey
data,
ages 7-14
Country
totals
(
33 countries)
39
million
90 million
Country
totals,
with sub-national estimates for India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan
28.5
million
(UNESCO, 2013)
47.5 millionOOSC living in conflict-affected areas (sub-national estimates for all 33 countries)11 million24 million
Number of OOSC living in conflict affected areas
Sources: UIS and EPDCSlide9
The quantitative impact of conflict on education
Estimating OOSC due to conflict
Multi country regression studies
Shields and Paulson (2014)
Lai and
Thyne
(2007)
Compare enrolment rates and trends in conflict and non conflict regions
NAR in NE Nigeria is 49%, compared to over 90% in the south
Ask why their children are out of school
16% of parents in S Kivu cited “fear of crime and conflict” as the primary cause of dropout
Compare enrolment trends with conflict history
UIS (2010)
EPDC (2010)Slide10
DRC OOSC rates and conflict history
Sources: UCDP, UISSlide11
Country
Estimated number of OOSC (UIS definition)
2011
Approximate proportion of OOSC that can be attributed to conflict
Approximate number of OOSC in 2011/12 due to conflict
DRC
3.5 million
10% to 20%
0.3 to 0.7 million
Nigeria
10.5 million
<5%
<0.5 million (2011 data)
Pakistan
5.4 million
15% to 50%
0.8 to 2.7 million
Total
19.4 million
5% to 20% (of total)
1.1 to 3.9 million
Estimates of OOSC due to conflictSlide12
3. The financial costsSlide13
The financial costs of conflict to education
Direct costs
Cost of replacing destroyed and damaged
infrastructure
Cost of replacing damaged and looted
equipment
Cost
of replacing
lost
teaching force
Cost
due to
lost teaching timeSlide14
Direct costs
of targeted attacks, 2009-2012
US$ million
DRC
26
Nigeria
6
Pakistan
101
Targeted
attacks Slide15
The financial costs of conflict to education
Scale of
“collateral damage”
is far greater than
cases documented
in
Education under Attack
Cost of reconstructing primary schools destroyed by bombing 2003-2004 in
Iraq
≈
$230m
Cost of replacing damaged school infrastructure and equipment in
Syria
≈
$1 to $3bn
(
Ndaruhutse
& West 2015).
During the Rwandan genocide, more than
two-thirds of the teaching force were either killed or fled (Buckland 2005).Slide16
Economic impact of conflict through missed education
Reduced enrolment and educational attainment lead to reduced GDP in long term (Burnett et al, 2013)
Estimates for Pakistan:
Long term cost of children out of school = $3bn
1 year reduction in average education attainment
→
13% reduction in per capita income
We used our estimates of impact of conflict on education to estimate the cost of the long term economic costs of lost education due to conflict.
Slide17
The financial costs of conflict to education
Summary of financial costs 2009-2012
DRC
Nigeria
Pakistan
Direct cost to the education sector of targeted attacks, 2009-2012
$26m
$5.7m
$101m
Long-term impact on national income of current OOSC due to conflict
$53-107m
n/a
$440m-1.5bn
Long-term impact on national income of reduced educational attainment due to conflict
$470m
n/a
$2.9bnSlide18
EUA evidence
Indirect costs
Collateral damage