Parashu Ram Adhikari , - PowerPoint Presentation

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Parashu Ram Adhikari, Dhanej Thapa, Kheema Subedi, Basanta Paudel NEPALBangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE INDUCED FLOODS IN KOSHI BASIN OF TERAI NEPAL

Empowered Lives. Resilient Nations.

PROJECT BACKGROUNDClimate vulnerable country, High dependence on environmental resources Erratic nature of the monsoon rainfall pattern and climate extreme events ,

increased mean annual precipitation; with decreased of rainy days with increased number of high-intensity rainfall events. Flood incidence increased in Nepalese context

Floods in

Koshi:

Koshi

river basin, which carries highest siltation among Nepali river, damaging million of hectare of arable land.

OBJECTIVESObjectivesThe overall objective is to assess climate induced flood risk and evaluate adaptations options suitable for agriculture resilience in

Koshi basin of Terai Nepal.

Specific Objectives

To estimate physical impacts of climate induced flood risk in

Koshi river basin area of

Terai

Nepal;

To calculate economic cost of floods in agriculture production;

To identify and compare economic cost and benefit of different adaptation options; and

To rank different flood adaptation options based on obtained NPV.

METHODOLOGYDeductive and Inductive Approach, Use of Flood and Crop yield simulation Studies

GIS based mapping for area decline with floods in different yearsDifferent Scenario Analysis

With flood hazards without CC and increased floods hazards in CC context

.

Flood model/hydrological models

Precipitation: Seasonal variability, inter-annual variation, Recurrence of floods and intensity and frequency

Past extreme events, its increased intensity, frequency and recurrence in recent years.

Satellite images captured in different in flood years

METHODOLOGYWith flood hazards without CC and increased floods hazards in CC context.Flood model/hydrological models

Precipitation: Seasonal variability, inter-annual variation, Recurrence of floods and intensity and frequencyPast extreme events, its increased intensity, frequency and recurrence in recent years.

Satellite images captured in different in flood years

Losses in agriculture production with flood hazards and with increased flood hazards due climate change.

Land loss

Production decline, farming system, Agriculture productivity, production trend,

Recardian

model for impact on agriculture production(decline of net revenue)

METHODOLOGYCost of and Benefit of Adaptation options. Cost of agriculture Adaptation; Submergence-tolerant rice varieties and river-belt farming (with floods)Flood protection: Riperian Plantation(without floods

Losses in agriculture production with flood hazards and with increased flood hazards due climate change.Land lossProduction decline, farming system, Agriculture productivity, production trend, Recardian

model for impact on agriculture production(decline of net revenue)

DATA REQUIREDType of DataCollection method

Source of Data Collection Precipitation

GCM, RCM and Downscaled data

DHM,

Floods, extreme events, intensity, frequency, recurrence

GIS images, flood mode,FGDs and KII

DWIDC

Agriculture Land loss

Observation/

Field Survey

Crop loss

Productivity decline method

District Agriculture Development Office(DADO)

Cost of Riparian plantation

Cost of treatment

District Forest Office,

Cost of CSA; Submergence rice varieties and river-belt farming

Cost of treatment

Production cost obtained from DADO.

Benefit of Adaptation with floods and without floods

Productivity method

Field Survey

Analysis Options Costs

BenefitsDo Nothing

Losses of crop production fallow of land. Losses of household income.

T

h

e

forgone

cost

river bank plantation

Or

For gone cost of use of submergence rice varieties

Or

Forgone cost of river-belt farming

Introduction of submergence rice varieties and river belt farming

Capital cost of crop varieties, input materials

Higher production and Income

Implementation of participatory river plantation

Ca

p

it

a

l

co

s

t

of

bamboo, plants, land sloping,

Recreation value, high land value, better production and income.

Evaluation of adaptation cost and benefit of flood management

THANK YOUQ&A