areas Third National Communication results Eglantina Demiraj Bruci Prof dr VampA Technical Coordinator Climate Change Programme UNDP Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop ID: 808406
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Climate change and adaptation options for Albania’s coastal areas Third National Communication results
Eglantina Demiraj Bruci , Prof. dr. V&A Technical CoordinatorClimate Change Programme, UNDP
Western Balkans Climate Resilience WorkshopVienna, Austria, May 11-12, 2016
Slide2Existing knowledge on Climate Change AdaptationMain Publications/project reportsAlbania’s First and Second National Communications to UNFCCC, (MoE 2009, 2012) Sutton, William R., Jitendra P. Srivastava, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strze˛pek, and Peter Droogers. 2013. Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0047-4Project Synthesis Report ‘Identification and Implementation of Adaptation Response Measures in the
Drini – Mati River Deltas (DMRD)’ (GEF/GoA/UNDP, 2013) CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector. Report No. 53331-ALB, December 2009Ongoing ProjectsAlbania’s Third National Communication to UNFCCCClimate Change Adaptation in Western Balkans’, GIZ supported (Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) ECRANDifferent literature sources
Slide3Some key results from ‘Albania’s Third National Communication to UNFCCC’Climate projectionsKey impacts for different sectors Potential adaptation options Gaps/needs knowledge
Slide4TNC - coastal zone Most vulnerable (floods/drought/storm surges), prone to erosion 12% of the country surface, 1/3 of population (36.3%) ( Census 2011) Vulnerable sectors:AgricultureTourismPopulation Health Protected areas (
Kune-Vain, Karavasta, Narta and Butrint) – globally significant
Slide5Projections - Temperature variability and likely changesTemperature and precipitation variabilityClear increasing trend, new climate normal
Temperature projections (aver. scenario, IPCC AR4, SRES family)Observations at ‘2010 reach projections for ‘2030
Slide6Average temperature projections, SRESMax temp projections, diferent RCPs
ProjectionsScenarios
2050
Year
RCP2.6
1.2 (0.7-1.8)
RCP8.5
2.0 (1.2-3.0)
Winter
RCP2.6
0.9 (0.5 -1.5)
RCP8.5
1.6 (1.0-2.6)
Summer
RCP2.6
1.5 (1.0-2.1)
RCP8.5
2.8 (1.7-3.8)
Years
2050
2100
Annual
1.7 (1.3 to 2.2)
3.2 (2.4 to 4.1)
Winter
1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)
2.4 (1.9 to 2.7)Summer2.5 (2.1 to 2.8)5.3 (4.6 to 6.0)
Average temperature projections
Slide7Projections - maximum temperatureSummer average maximum temperature, baseline and expected by 2050Change in return periods, 3 consecutive days with absolute max
temperatureDecrease in return period
Slide8Projections - precipitation, average scenario, SRES Decreasing seasonal and annual trends
High variability (significance levels 5% and 95%)years2050
2100
Annual
-8.46 (-56.0 to 47.4)
-18.13 (-89.7 to 94.9)
Winter
-10 (-27.9 to 7.7)
-18.1 (-55.8 to 19.6)
Summer
-19.7(-24.1 to -15.3)
-50.4 (-59.4 to -41.3)
Slide9Projections – precipitation
Decreasing seasonal and annual trends, (except. Winter), significant decrease in return period for heavy precipitations
Slide10SourceWorld Bank. 2014. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Projections - Sealevel rise
Slide11Runoff changes, aver. scen SRES Increase of frequency of extreme events (heat waves, drought, heavy rains, max flows and floods, storm surges, etc.)Decrease in seasonal and annual flowsImpact on hydroenergy productionEnergy demand: decrease in winter for heating and increase in summer for coolingPenetration of salt water into coastal acquifers Increase in needs for drinking water supply and water for irrigation
Key impacts
Slide12Key impacts Biodiversity Intensification of erosion (beaches and dunes)Coastal ecosystem degradation (sandy dunes dunat, lagoons, weltlands and river deltas)Penetration of salty water into fresh water systems - impact in water trophic conditions;Impacts on hydrodynamic regimes;Impacts on coastal biological communities;
Spread of alien invasive species
Slide13ImpactsAgriculture areas threatened from flooding, north coastalAreaSource: DMRD projectdue to sealevel
rise
Slide14Key impacts - Agriculture Likely changes in temperature and precipitation patterns: extention of vegetation periodDecrease in yield and crop damages. Increased irrigation demandpests
Crop yield reduction for the mean time under scenario “without irrigation”. TourismPopulation& settlementsHealth
Slide15Potential adaptation options Coastal Adaptation Plan67 proposed potential adaptation measures from different sectors. Prioritization criteria: potential partnership, time frame, principle of additionality, financial indicative cost and ‘Win-Win’ Solutions.
Slide16Examples of adaptation measuresCoastal Erosion:Eliminate factors that exacerbate erosion (remove Drini breakwater)Beach restoration to slow erosion rates (beach nourishment Kune Zone)Structural methods of sand retention (groynes Kune Zone)Water Exchange:Structural methods to restrict accumulation (terminal groynes Merxhani Lagoon)
Regular maintenance dredging (Zaje-Ceka Lagoons)Control discharge from pumping stations (all lagoons)Adaptation to Sea-level Rise:Restoration of agricultural areas to restore wetland functioningMaintenance and upgrade of flood embankments
Slide17CategoryNo of Measure as identified from sector reportsMeasures
ActionsLocationSHORT TERM MEASURES SOFT59
Support to Research and Monitoring on data collection and assessment for physical, biological and social environment across the coastal area, with regard to ecosystems and biodiversity
• Design and application of models to estimate the impact of past or future climate hazards on crops, livestock, ecosystems and biodiversity
Provide modern devices to measure and monitor:
o sea level
o progression of the sea toward the land (marine erosion)
o difference between tides and ebb –tides
o quantity and quality of depositions
coastal area/ entire country
SOFT
66
Develop and enforce relevant legislation and policies on hydrological regime and water resources
• Promote engagement to facilitate enforcement of existing legislation
• Political measures (advisory panels, decrees, rules, laws, norms) enforcing the long term sustainable implementation of the adaptation measured proposed
• Restrict or prohibit development in erosion zones
• Development of a insurance sector to promptly mitigate losses
• Develop a water information database and monitoring network for coastal zone and river system
• Incorporate sea level rise into planning for new infrastructure (e.g., sewage systems)
• Integrate climate change scenarios into water supply system
coastal area/ entire country
Slide18Combined (GREEN&Soft)10
Measures in the Protected Areas (PAs) • Improve the management of coastal protected areas• Forest fires prevention and warning systems• Introduce monitoring system in protected areas• Improve the water exchange in lagoons• Biodiversity restoration activities• Improve the lagoon systems• Implement monitoring plans of protected areas
Velipoje-Shkoder, Drini-Mati,
Durresi
Bay,
Myzeqe
Field,
Vjosa
River Mouth
Category
No of Measure as identified from sector reports
Measures
Actions
Location
GREY
3
Improve Water Management
• Improve irrigation and drainage systems
• Optimize water usage for irrigation
• Enhance flood plain management (wetland management)
• Drop irrigation systems and use water-efficient crop varieties
• Construct levees
• Water harvesting and efficiency improvements
• Intercropping to maximize use of moisture
Velipoje
-Shkoder, Drini-Mati, Durresi Bay, Myzeqe Field, Vjosa River Mouth
Slide19GREY1
Measures related to the protection of Farming Ventures/ Protective Efforts/ Technological Processes• Hail protection systems (cloud seeding, nets)
• Install plant protection belts
• Lime dust on greenhouses to reduce heat
• Vegetative barriers, fences, windbreaks
• Move crops to greenhouses
• Smoke curtains to address late spring and early fall frosts
• Build or rehabilitate forest belts
• Improve input supply (seeds, fertilizers etc.)
• Change fallow and mulching practices
• Change in cultivation techniques
• Conservation tillage
• Crop diversification
• Crop rotation
• Heat- and drought-tolerant crops/varieties/hybrids
• Increased input of organic matter to maintain yield
• Manual weeding
• More turning over of the soil
• Strip cropping, contour bounding (or ploughing) and farming
• Switch to crops, varieties appropriate to temp, precipitation
• Optimize timing of operations (planting, inputs, irrigation, harvest)
• Mixed farming systems (crops, livestock, and trees)
• Shift crops from areas that are vulnerable to drought
• Protect the field using agro-forestry practices
• Demonstration plots and/or knowledge sharing opportunities
Velipoje-Shkoder, Drini-Mati, Durresi Bay, Myzeqe Field, Vjosa River MouthCategoryNo of Measure as identified from sector reportsMeasuresActionsLocation
Slide20New challenge - integrating CCA and resilient sustainable development CCA issues are integrated in strategies/development plans (drafts):Cross-cutting Strategy for Environment,2015-2020 (MoE)Integrated management of water resources (MARDWA)Integrated cross-sectorial plan for the coast - 2015 (NATP)National Adaptation Plan process (GIZ, MoE)New municipal development plans encouraged to address CC issuesFinalized docs:CC and Health Strategy (MoH, 2013)
Policy Paper: Climate Change Adaptation in the Drini Mati River Delta and Beyond (MoE/UNDP, 2013)
Slide21Knowledge gapsObservations needs:Gaps in observational network (soil moisture, evapotranspiration, groundwater, short series of solar radiation and wind)Monitoring of climate related impacts in different sectorsResearch needs (impact assessment)How to:Understand climate projections and expected impacts: uncertainties in modeling climate variability esp. precipitation,respond sustainably to CC extreme events (’bridging’ DRR and CC adaptation)Capacities to evaluate costs and benefits, potentials and limitations need to be built/improved
Slide22Thank you!http://www.mjedisi.gov.al/al/programi/sherbime-dhe-transparence/transparence-dhe-pjesemarrje Draft TNC for comments