1 SPSRB Decision Brief on Declaring SNPP Microwave Sounderbased Tropical Cyclone Products NTCP Operational Presenters John Knaff and Liqun Ma April 15 2015 2 Integrated Product Team IPT ID: 770323
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "1 SPSRB Decision Brief" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1 SPSRB Decision Briefon Declaring “S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP)” Operational Presenters: John Knaff and Liqun Ma April 15, 2015
2 Integrated Product Team (IPT)IPT Lead: John Knaff (STAR) IPT Backup Lead: Liqun Ma (OSPO) NESDIS Team: STAR: John Knaff OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC products PAL) OSD: Tom Schott NDE: Dylan Powell, Wei Yu Data Center: Phil Jones Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Truc Nguyen (SSAI), Scott Longmore (CIRA), John Dostalek (CIRA ) User Team Lead: Mark DeMaria , Michael Brennan, and Jack Beven (NHC) Brian Strahl (JTWC ) Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP
3 Requirement(s)Meet SPSRB User Request #1009-0017 from National Hurricane Center Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the S-NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. User community National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Dept. of Defense NWS Offices Benefit to user Continuity of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters NOAA Mission Goal supported : Weather and Water Commerce and Transportation Mission priority : Optimal
4Capabilities Assessment Current Operational Capabilities Requested Capabilities Proposed Operational Capabilities Satellite Source (s) NOAA polar-orbiting satellites (AMSU) S-NPP and JPSS (ATMS) S-NPP (ATMS) Product Name AMSU-based TC products ATMS-based TC products ATMS-based TC products Accuracy Intensity MAE of 13.5 kt / 9 hPa . Wind radii MAE of 32, 18, 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively. Same or better than current AMSU-based products. Same as requested Latency 3 hours after synoptic time 3 hours after synoptic time Same as requested Timeliness New product generated every 6 hours, updated every 2 hours New product generated every 6 hours, updated every 2 hours Same as requested Coverage Global N. Atlantic and N.E. Pacific tropical cyclone basins Global Resolution Point values for intensity and radii, 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds Point values for intensity and radii, 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds Same as requested Other attributes
5Product Deliverable Details Product Type and Number Fiscal Year (FY) Product Delivery/Tracking Name Environmental Observational Parameters Satellites Sensors N # E # R # T #O#Tailoring Options or CommentsFY15S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone productsTropical cyclone maximum windS-NPPATMS1Formats: textCoverage areas: globalResolutions: N/AUpdate cycle: every 6 hFY15S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone productsminimum sea level pressureS-NPPATMS1Formats: textCoverage areas: globalResolutions: N/AUpdate cycle: every 6 h FY15S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone productsradii of 34 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrantsS-NPPATMS1Formats: textCoverage areas: globalResolutions: N/AUpdate cycle: every 6 hFY15S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone productsradii of 50 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrantsS-NPPATMS1Formats: textCoverage areas: globalResolutions: N/AUpdate cycle: every 6 hFY15S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone productsradii of 64 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrantsS-NPPATMS1Formats: textCoverage areas: globalResolutions: N/AUpdate cycle: every 6 hFY15S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone productsbalanced horizontal winds at 1000 to 200 mb within 600 km of the storm centerS-NPPATMS12Formats: netCDF, pngCoverage areas: globalResolutions: 0.2 degree lat/latUpdate cycle: every 6 h N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored O=Other
6 Project Milestones and Key Tasks Product Delivery/Tracking Name: S- NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products MAY 11 (MAY 11) (MAY 11) (MAY 11) (MAY 11) : Development Phase Begins MAY 11: IPT Lead informed to begin product development MAY 11: Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets OCT 11: NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones JUL 12: Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (collecting sample cases, real-time ingest expected Jul 2013) JUL 12: Initial Archive Requirements identified JUL 12: Quality Monitoring Concept Defined JUL 12: Long-term Maintenance Concept DefinedJUL 12: Preliminary Design ReviewAUG 12: Development processing system definedOCT 12: Test case processedMAR 13: Critical Design ReviewMAR 13: Final Archive requirements identifiedAPR 13: Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using available NPP ATMS sounding test cases)APR 13: Code is prepared for implementationMAY13: Software Code ReviewOCT 13: Deliver Algorithm Package to NDEDEC 13 (JUL 13) (JUN 13) (MAR 13) (MAR 13): Pre-operational Phase BeginsDEC 13: The TC DAP tested and evaluated within NDE SADIE, algorithm adjustments madeJUN 14: TC products run on the NDE System Integration for 2013/14 Atlantic hurricane seasonJUN 14: Code transitions to operations; all documentation is completeAPR 15: Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product statusAPR 15: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operationalApr 15 (OCT 13) (OCT 13) (AUG 13) (AUG 13): Operational Phase BeginsAPR 15: SPSRB declares product operationalSPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pagesOSD updates Satellite Products database
7
Quality of the Product AlgorithmAMSU-based Intensity and wind radii algorithms have been running operationally at NCEP since 2003 (NOAA and Met-Op polar orbiting satellites).AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since 2005 (NOAA and Met-Op polar orbiting satellites).The algorithm will be updated to use the operational S-NPP MIRS sounding products instead of the Goldberg/Barnet statistical retrievals.8
Quality of the Product Core Product - TC forecast ATCF file TC-sh142015_v1r5_npp_s20150227120000000000_e20150227140000000000_c201502271614550_14S_FIXSH, 14, 201502270940, 30, ATMS, IPR, , 2437S, 6640E, , 1, 73, 2, 973, 2, MEAS, 34, NEQ , 213, 213, 157, 157, , , , , 2, 91, , S, NSOF, OPS, , , , , , , 973, , SNPP01, 34, NEQ , 213, 213, 157, 157, , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 a-deck 9
Quality of the Product Core Product – 2-D wind10
Quality of the Product Verification DatasetPre-operational MIRS ATMS data from 2012 (obtained from NESDIS/STAR)249 intensity estimates, 116/85/42 estimates of R34/R50/R64, respectivelyQuasi-real-time runs performed at CIRA (Aug 2014-present)241 intensity estimates and 94/67/47 estimates of R34/R50/R64, respectivelyVerification proceduresCompared NTCP estimates to intensity and radii estimates in the Best Track databaseIdeally use only cases with aircraft reconnaissance data, but sample too smallBest track radii estimates for WP, SH, and IO were not used due to quality issues (no aircraft reconnaissance data in those basins)Verification results – Complete sampleIntensity (Vmax and Pmin) estimates very close to meeting goal mean absolute errors (MAE)All radii MAE are 1.5-2.5 times larger than goal Positive biases of radii estimates suggest systematic over-prediction of R34, R50, and R6411 Vmax ( kt ) Pmin ( hPa ) R34 (nmi) R50 (nmi) R64 (nmi) MAE 13.99.9422827GOAL (MAE)13.510.0321810Bias-1.62.5221413N52552523414589
Quality of the Product Homogeneous comparison to AMSU-based productsNTCP’s performance compared to that of operational AMSU product over a homogeneous sampleProvides a more fair comparison of the products, as AMSU validation was done over a different, larger sample Verification Results – Homogeneous SampleNTCP and operational AMSU mean absolute errors (MAE) for Vmax and Pmin are similarNTC radii estimate MAE are still larger than operational AMSU productNear-TC MIRS ATMS temperature and moisture profiles are significantly different from statistical AMSU profiles – more so than anticipatedCAL/VAL project currently underway to investigate differences in retrievals, re-derive product coefficients for ATMS MIRS, and recommend corrections to be implemented in the NTCP within the year (J. Dostalek )12 Vmax ( kt ) Pmin ( hPa ) R34 (nmi) R50 (nmi) R64 (nmi) NTCP MAE 14.610.2513542AMSU MAE13.99.5291622N3113111016036
Quality of the Product Verification of Operational ImplementationNPP TC products generated at NDE PE-2 are compared with those produced at CIRAThe products from CIRA and NDE PE-2 are identical13 From OSPO From CIRA
14Plan of OperationsProduct Retirement PlanNo products will be retired as a result of transition to operations of NTCP productArchive PlanNTCP products in ATCF format will be archived at NHC/JTWCNTCP products in NetCDF will be archived at NCDC.Documentation UpdateCIRA delivered ATBD, SMM and EUMOSPD modified them with OSPO NDE operational environments
15Plan of OperationsLong Term Maintenance PlanScience support of product provided by CIRA Scientists24 x 7 technical support of product generation, distribution, and monitoring to be provided by OSPO NDE support personnel Quality Monitoring PlanThe NTCP Product files include overall quality control flags and quality summary level metadataNDE Products Monitoring Tool will be available soon.The NPP TC algorithm does not have automatic product monitoring tools. Users from NHC, JTWC and developers from CIRA will keep watch on this product closely, especially during hurricane season.
User Readiness (1/2)Data AccessReal-time data (ATCF) will be put on NDE DDS for NHC/CPHC/JTWC users.Real-time data (ATCF) and images are also provided to users on the ESPC ftp site ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/TCFP/NTCPReal-time data (NetCDF) will be sent to NCDC by NDE DDS16
User Readiness (2/2)Acceptance of ProductNHC, CPHC, JTWCAlready use AMSU-TC product generated from NCEP.Already reviewed test data.TrainingUser manuals will be made available to all usersNHC/CPHC/JTWCNo specific training from OSPO is required. Users have been using current AMSU TC product for years. ESPC OperatorTraining has been provided by NDE team for monitoring the NDE system17
18 Satellite Product End-to-End Documentation System (SPEEDS) Product Name: S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products Projected Date to Go Operational: May, 2015 Product Description: The S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based TC Products algorithm provides estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and surface wind radii for 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind thresholds. Intensity and structure estimates are calculated from a combination of ATMS-based temperature and moisture soundings, the hydrostatic relationship, and statistics . Product System: S-NPP Data Exploitation (NDE) Platform: NDE PE-1 Satellite(s): S-NPPInstrument(s) used: ATMSChannels: N/AHorizontal Resolution: 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced windsVertical Resolution: N/AFrequency: every 6 hours at synoptic times , updated every 2 hoursCoverage: GlobalAccuracy: Intensity MAE of 14.0 kt / 10 hPa. Wind radii MAE of 42, 65, 68 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively.Formats: ATCF and NetCDFWeb Page: N/AProduct Oversight Panel: ICAPOPUsers: NHC/JTWCArchive: NCDC
19 SPSRB User Request StatusHas the SPSRB user request been fully satisfied? TC intensity estimates( Vmax and Pmin ) are satisfied radii coefficients will be corrected before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1st, 2015).
20 SPSRB DecisionGeneral commentsUser inputSTAR senior representative input OSPO senior representative input OSD senior representative input Consensus decision reached? Yes: summarize decision No: summarize direction