PDF-EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE

1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center. March 2010. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. How does NHC analyze and forecast hurricanes?. How do the forecasters blend the various (surface . obs. Precipitation . Forecasting, Applications & Justification. Jeanine Jones , California Department of Water Resources. “While everybody talked about the weather, nobody seemed to do anything about it” – Charles Warner, misattributed to Mark Twain. Hurricanes. What is a hurricane?. A hurricane is a huge storm! It can be up to 600 miles across and have strong winds . increase . inward and upward at speeds of 75 to 200 mph. Each hurricane usually lasts for over a week, moving 10-20 miles per hour over the open ocean. Hurricanes gather heat and energy through contact with warm ocean waters. Evaporation from the seawater increases their power. Hurricanes rotate in a counter-clockwise direction around an . Frederick Bingham. UNC Wilmington. Collaborators: Julius . Busecke. ,. Arnold Gordon and Claudia . Giulivi. (LDEO), . Zhijin. Li (JPL). Also thanks to J. . D’Addezio. !. Work funded by NASA. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans doi:10.1002/2014JC009825. The North Atlantic Oscillation’s (NAO) Impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Overview. • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). • Data. • Methods. . ◦. Univariate. Statistics. . ◦ Bivariate Statistics. -1- Hurricane Nora 1-9 October 2003 Lixion. A. Avila National Hurricane Center 4 November 2003 a.Synoptic History Nora developed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 13 Septe 2 surface temperatures steadily took its toll on Jova and the cyclone rapidly weakened to a tropical storm late on 22 September about 350 n mi east-northeast of Hilo. Jova became a tropical depressio ENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE KIKOEP132019September2019David ANational Hurricane Center 10 January 2020 SUOMI NPP/VIIRS NIGHTTIME IMAGE OF HURRICANE KIKO AT 0942 UTC 15 SHurricane Kiko 2 H and Comparison . of its Predictability to Analog Northeast U.S. Events. Robert Hart . rhart@fsu.edu. http://moe.met.fsu.edu. Dept. of Earth, Ocean, and Atmos. Science. Florida State University. http://coolwx.com. Maj John McCrory . Louisiana Wing Director of Safety. Hurricane Preparedness. What to do to prepare for an approaching Hurricane.. What is your role in protecting yourself, your family and Civil Air Patrol resources you are responsible for?. Volume 6 , No. 4 128 QiaoSheng DONG University of Cambridge , U K E mail : dongqiaosheng@gmail.com Abstract : When considering the cause of diseases, the Hippocratic authors paid much attention to th Mark DeMaria. National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. GFDL Hurricane Science Symposium. May 2, 2017. 1. Outline. 2. 1954-1975 – . Barotropic. and statistical track . forecast model era. Fred . Toepfer. . March . 4, 2015. HFIP at the 5 Year Point. 2. HFIP Motivation. Decrease Evacuations. Increase . forecast . accuracy, . especially . at longer lead . times. especially . during periods of rapid intensity changes; . 2007 Forecast Verification. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2008. James L. Franklin. NHC/TPC. Summary: Atlantic Track. OFCL track errors set records for accuracy from 36-96 . h. . Errors continue their downward trends, although skill has been flat for several years..