Macro-Fiscal Forecasting

Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Macro-Fiscal Forecasting - Start

Added : 2016-04-19 Views :47K

Download Presentation

Macro-Fiscal Forecasting




Download Presentation - The PPT/PDF document "Macro-Fiscal Forecasting" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.



Presentations text content in Macro-Fiscal Forecasting

Slide1

Macro-Fiscal Forecasting

Sami

Yl

ä

outinen

Fiscal Affairs Department (IMF) & METAC

Workshop on MTFF

December 16

th

–19

th

, 2014, Beirut, Lebanon

Slide2

Macro-Fiscal ForecastingOutline of Presentation

Why macroeconomic forecastingEnsuring consistencyEnsuring credibilityStatistics and time seriesHow to organize forecastingConclusion

2

2

Slide3

I. Why Macro-Fiscal Forecasting? Motivation

Where we are now? – nowcastingWhere we are going? – forecastingshort-run (6-24 months)medium-run (2-5 years)long-run (5+ years)From cycle through convergence to potentialFrom demand side to supply sideFrom fixed to endogenous structuresEssential information for decision making and policy planning

3

Slide4

I. Why Macro-Fiscal Forecasting? Decision making

Forecasts assess the impact of actions which is materialized with lags.Forecasts tackle the inherent uncertainty and assess risks.Framework which draws together relevant information and spells out the costs, benefits and risks associated with economic agents behavior.

4

Slide5

I. Why Macro-Fiscal Forecasting? Policy planning

Stabilization policiesAutomaticDiscretionaryStructural policiesSocial benefits and incentivesInnovation and investments – National Vision 2030Market failures

5

Slide6

IV. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Forecasts Policy planning

Distributional policiesSocial transfersIncome equalization through taxesSustainabilityGrowth potential in the long run – National Vision 2030DemographicsFiscal position to guarantee sustainability and fiscal spaceScenarios and sensitivity testing

6

Slide7

II. Ensuring Consistency

7

7

Slide8

Political biasGood economic performance suggests successful policiesStrong growth leads to additional revenueThe ‘shoot the messenger’ syndromeInformational biasExcess burden of taxationIndependent input can help overcoming biased forecasts

8

III. Ensuring CredibilitySystematic Overestimation of Performance

8

Slide9

III. Ensuring Credibility Transparency

9

9

Slide10

III. Ensuring CredibilityAddressing Bias

Prudency factorPanel forecastBenchmark forecastsIndependent forecastsCanadaChileNetherlandsSwedenUK

10

10

Slide11

IV. Statistics and Time SeriesNational Accounts

Statistical standardsNational System of AccountsGFSRelease calendarLevel of detailDecomposition of GDPPrice statisticsBalance of paymentsDemographic statisticsStatistical integrity

11

11

Slide12

V. How to Organize ForecastingPossible macro-fiscal entities

12

Slide13

V. How to Organize Forecasting The Functional Departments Model

Macroanalysis is done by an Economics Affairs DepartmentExpenditure forecasting and analysis is the responsibility of the Budget Department

13

13

Slide14

V. How to Organize Forecasting The Functional Departments Model

14

ConsistencyUnambiguous and clearly defined responsibilities2. UpdatesCoordination of forecastingCommunication and coordination across departments3. Informed policy formulation/The need for fiscal analysis can be reflected in the organization… but coordination with revenue and budget dep’t needed4. Integrity and unbiasednessChecks and balancesProfessional integrity

14

Slide15

V. How to Organize Forecasting The Macro-Fiscal Unit Model

Macro-fiscal consistency is ensured by organizing all functions into one unitPooling of resources and a center of excellence for macro-fiscal issuesClose coordination with the budget and revenue department is crucial

15

15

Slide16

V. How to Organize Forecasting The Macro-Fiscal Unit Model

16

Consistency/One source of macro-forecasts… but fiscal assumptions have to be coordinated2. Updates/Iteration of macro and fiscal are done within the unit… but requires access to updated info on new policies3. Informed policy formulation/Good conditions for preparing fiscal policy recommendations… but actual implementation demands coordination4. Integrity and unbiasednessCenter for macro-fiscal analysis

16

Slide17

VII. Conclusion

17

17

Slide18

Slide19

Slide20


About DocSlides
DocSlides allows users to easily upload and share presentations, PDF documents, and images.Share your documents with the world , watch,share and upload any time you want. How can you benefit from using DocSlides? DocSlides consists documents from individuals and organizations on topics ranging from technology and business to travel, health, and education. Find and search for what interests you, and learn from people and more. You can also download DocSlides to read or reference later.
Youtube