and humanitarian response L essons from Nepal THE SCIENCE OF AFTERSHOCK FORECASTING Earthquakes cant be predicted However aftershocks follow robust seismological laws Probability ID: 639696 Download Presentation
at the USGS. Andrew J. Michael. What Is Operational Earthquake Forecasting?. a.k.a. OEF. Currently OEF = Earthquake Clustering. a.k.a. Foreshocks and Aftershocks. Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes..
VIRGINIA SEISMIC ZONE: IMPLICATIONS FOR FAULT RUPTURE . AREA - MOMENT RELATIONS. Martin Chapman, Jacob Beale. Department of Geosciences. Virginia Tech. Blacksburg, Virginia. email: firstname.lastname@example.org. GSA Southeastern Section Meeting.
A Complex Rupture?. M. C. Chapman. Department of Geosciences. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Blacksburg, Virginia 24061. mcc. @ vt.edu. Meeting of the Eastern Section, Seismological.
Grand Challenge Symposium. UseIT. . Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology. Southern California Earthquake Center. The Grand Challenge. Use SCEC-VDO to visualize earthquake scenarios, in particular Loma Prieta.
By. : 10 grade. What is an earthquake ?. Simply, earthquakes are the rumblings, shaking or rolling of the earth's surface. It is usually what happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another, or break apart from each other as a result of tension caused by prolonged energy build up. .
(Lesson 22). ENQUIRY QUESTION 3:. How successful is the . management. of tectonic hazards and disasters?. H/W :TASK 4. Read the information . (Hodder page 90 in this booklet) . about two recent tectonic mega disasters : .
Properties of aftershocks and foreshocks . and implications for earthquake forecasting. Agnès. . Helmstetter. , . ISTerre. , CNRS, University Grenoble 1 . Earthquake triggering. When? Where? What size?.
earthquake. (also known as a . quake. , . tremor. or . temblor. ) is the result of a sudden release of energy in the . Earth's. . crust. that creates . seismic waves. . . The . seismicity. , . seismism.
Presented by Christopher J. Swanson. Government Finance Research Group. www.MuniCast.com. 1. Financial Modeling & Forecasting Smart Practices. www.MuniCast.com. 2. Smart Practices. Annual Forecasting Model – Key Elements.
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Earthquake aftershock forecasting
Presentation on theme: "Earthquake aftershock forecasting"— Presentation transcript:
Earthquake aftershock forecasting and humanitarian response Lessons from NepalSlide2
THE SCIENCE OF
Earthquakes can’t be predicted
However, aftershocks follow robust seismological
of aftershocks of certain
they are most likely to occur...
Relationship between magnitudeand total number of earthquakesYou get more small
aftershocks than big
Number of aftershocks decays throughtime after a mainshock
“There will be further aftershocks,
likely to concentrate in an area
-100km radius of the M7.3 epicentre
“We should expect aftershocks that are up to a M 6
here might be
7.5”15th May 2015Putting it all together: 15th May 2015Slide8
USING THE FORECASTSSlide9
Reconstruction Nepal (RRN
Water and Health (NEWAH
14,000 ‘household kits’
Tarpaulin, Sleeping equipment, Hygiene items, Jerry canWater supply and latrinesThe Concern earthquake responseSlide10
Steep slopes and
mergency gearIn urban areasRoofs and muster points
Whistles and grab
all staff Slide11
NO going back into buildings yet – even if they ‘look’ safe
Ignore people who suggest it is OK to move back inside; they are wrong
earthquake affected populationSlide12
Leave dangerous places till lastKeep away from steep / unstable slopes (landslides)
Better programming decisionsSlide13
More data, faster data faster and better forecastsCommunicating probabilities: prior
Identifying and training influential decision makersImproving the earthquake catalogue