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Earthquake aftershock forecasting

and humanitarian response. . L. essons . from Nepal. THE SCIENCE OF . AFTERSHOCK FORECASTING. Earthquakes can’t be predicted. However, aftershocks follow robust seismological . ‘laws’. Probability .

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Earthquake aftershock forecasting






Presentation on theme: "Earthquake aftershock forecasting"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1

Earthquake aftershock forecasting and humanitarian response Lessons from NepalSlide2

THE SCIENCE OF

AFTERSHOCK FORECASTINGSlide3

Earthquakes can’t be predicted

However, aftershocks follow robust seismological

‘laws’

Probability

of aftershocks of certain

sizes

Where

they are most likely to occur...

AFTERshock

forecastingSlide4

Relationship between magnitudeand total number of earthquakesYou get more small

aftershocks than big

ones

Gutenberg Richter

lawSlide5

Number of aftershocks decays throughtime after a mainshock

Omori lawSlide6

“There will be further aftershocks,

likely to concentrate in an area

50

-100km radius of the M7.3 epicentre

” Slide7

“We should expect aftershocks that are up to a M 6

and t

here might be

an

aftershock up

to M

7.5”15th May 2015Putting it all together: 15th May 2015Slide8

USING THE FORECASTSSlide9

Rural

Reconstruction Nepal (RRN

)

Nepal

Water and Health (NEWAH

)

14,000 ‘household kits’

Tarpaulin, Sleeping equipment, Hygiene items, Jerry canWater supply and latrinesThe Concern earthquake responseSlide10

In

r

ural areas

Buildings

,

Steep slopes and

E

mergency gearIn urban areasRoofs and muster points

Everyone, everywhere

Whistles and grab

-

bags

Safety

of

all staff Slide11

NO going back into buildings yet – even if they ‘look’ safe

Ignore people who suggest it is OK to move back inside; they are wrong

Safety

of

earthquake affected populationSlide12

Leave dangerous places till lastKeep away from steep / unstable slopes (landslides)

We

can

be

confident

Better programming decisionsSlide13

More data, faster data  faster and better forecastsCommunicating probabilities: prior

training required

WeaknessesSlide14

Identifying and training influential decision makersImproving the earthquake catalogue

Where we go from here