Presentation on theme: "Earthquake aftershock forecasting"— Presentation transcript
Slide1
Earthquake aftershock forecasting and humanitarian response Lessons from NepalSlide2
THE SCIENCE OF
AFTERSHOCK FORECASTINGSlide3
Earthquakes can’t be predicted
However, aftershocks follow robust seismological
‘laws’
Probability
of aftershocks of certain
sizes
Where
they are most likely to occur...
AFTERshock
forecastingSlide4
Relationship between magnitudeand total number of earthquakesYou get more small
aftershocks than big
ones
Gutenberg Richter
lawSlide5
Number of aftershocks decays throughtime after a mainshock
Omori lawSlide6
“There will be further aftershocks,
likely to concentrate in an area
50
-100km radius of the M7.3 epicentre
” Slide7
“We should expect aftershocks that are up to a M 6
and t
here might be
an
aftershock up
to M
7.5”15th May 2015Putting it all together: 15th May 2015Slide8
USING THE FORECASTSSlide9
Rural
Reconstruction Nepal (RRN
)
Nepal
Water and Health (NEWAH
)
14,000 ‘household kits’
Tarpaulin, Sleeping equipment, Hygiene items, Jerry canWater supply and latrinesThe Concern earthquake responseSlide10
In
r
ural areas
Buildings
,
Steep slopes and
E
mergency gearIn urban areasRoofs and muster points
Everyone, everywhere
Whistles and grab
-
bags
Safety
of
all staff Slide11
NO going back into buildings yet – even if they ‘look’ safe
Ignore people who suggest it is OK to move back inside; they are wrong
Safety
of
earthquake affected populationSlide12
Leave dangerous places till lastKeep away from steep / unstable slopes (landslides)
We
can
be
confident
Better programming decisionsSlide13
More data, faster data faster and better forecastsCommunicating probabilities: prior
training required
WeaknessesSlide14
Identifying and training influential decision makersImproving the earthquake catalogue
Where we go from here
