1 EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM

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EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT. Osvaldo Feinstein. 9 February 2012. 2. Evaluating. . the. . impact. of . climate. . change. . policies. . on. . ID: 462510 Download Presentation

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1 EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM




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EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT

Osvaldo Feinstein

9 February 2012

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Evaluating the impact of climate change policies on development

Themes

1. Clarifications concerning

evaluating impact,

climate change policies

and

development

2. Expected results from these evaluations

3. Evaluation questions and methods

4. Useful resource materials

Slide3

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Evaluating impact

A

fundamentalist view

: IE is, and only is, evaluation using Randomized Control Trials

A

pragmatic view

: positive and negative, primary and secondary long term effects produced by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended (OECD glossary)

Slide4

Impact and the results chain

Results

chain

INPUTS

OUTPUTS

OUTCOMES

IMPACTS

Processes

,

activities

and

context

Non-

linearities

and

feedback

loops

Slide5

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Climate Change Policies (CCP)

Policies to mitigate or adapt to climate change

Innovative policies (risk and uncertainty)

Explicit CCP and implicit CCP (unintended effects on climate change of non-CCPs)

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Adaptation and Mitigation

ADAPTATION

Actions that people, countries and societies take to

adjust to climate change that actually occurred, or whose occurrence is anticipated (reactive & anticipatory adaptation)

Responses

to actual or anticipated shifts in climate e.g., changing crops

MITIGATION

Actions reducing the chances that adaptation will be required

Preventive

actions, e.g., GHG emission reductions

When mitigation fails or is too late, adaptation is needed

Evaluating the impact, efficiency and sustainability of A & M

Slide7

Community of Practice

Community of practice for the evaluation of climate change and development (supported by the GEF Evaluation Office)

http://www.climate-eval.org/?q=home

Follow-up of the International Conference on Evaluating Climate Change and Development

http://www.thegef.org/gef/eo_office

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On the Concept of Development

Development as freedom (Amartya Sen)

Development as opportunities and empowerment

(N. Stern)

3. Sustainable development

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Growth, Development & Climate Change

Frequent focus: GROWTH

CLIMATE CHANGE

GROWTH, even SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, is different from DEVELOPMENT

Our focus: CCPOLICIES

DEVELOPMENT

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Expected results from evaluating CC policies on Development

 

1. More effective and efficient pro-development

evidence based climate change policies

2. Evaluation capacity development through learning-by-doing

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Evidence-based vs Fundamentalism

Climate change fundamentalism

negationism:

nothing needs to be done (denial)

catastrophism:

nothing can be done (alarmism)

voluntarism : everything can be done

Pragmatic approach

possibilism: something can/must be done

Evidence-based climate change policies

evaluation as a source of evidence

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Questions that evaluation suggests and that should contribute to answer

Which climate change policies led to the highest

net

development impact in which

contexts

and

why

?

How can

evaluation

contribute to the

design and implementation of CCPs

to enhance their positive effects on development?

?

Slide13

On evaluation methods

A

pluralistic

approach

,

consistent

with

the

pragmatic

definition

of

impact

evaluation

Models

,

triangulation

,

application

of

evaluation

criteria

,

cost-benefit

analysis

,

cost

effectiveness

analysis

, causal

chain

,

theory

of

change

or

theory

based

evaluation

Meta-

analysis

,

synthesis

reviews

(3iE

)

Slide14

Making assumptions explicit

Assumptions concerningIncentivesCapacitiesAdoptionRiskUncertaintySustainability

14

Slide15

Key message on evaluation methods

Choosing methods and/or techniques that are:

Fit for purpose

Fit for task

Fit for resources

Fit for circumstances

(“Horses for courses”)

Slide16

Circumstances

Purpose of the evaluation

Available capacities

Type of intervention

Budget constraint

Deadline

Data availability

Bottom line:

Fit for circumstances

Slide17

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Useful resources

US GAO “Designing Evaluations” 2012 Revision

WB Impact Evaluation Handbook (2011)

Network of Networks for Impact Evaluation (NONIE) “Impact Evaluations and Development”

(2009)

New Directions for Evaluation (2009)

Slide18

Some additional useful resources

Climate change evaluations by the WB IEG

WDR (2011) and HDR (2010) on climate change

“Evaluating Climate Change and Development”09

Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 06

International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3iE)

Bert Metz (2010) “Controlling Climate Change”

http://www.controllingclimatechange.info/ControllingClimateChange_by_BertMetz.pdf

Slide19

The end?

Thank you!

ofeinstein@yahoo.com

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