Isabelle Ramdoo 12 November 2013 Helsinski Economic Partnership Agreements Setting the scene Some key facts Where are we now Some figures and the state of play of the negotiations Challenges ID: 789153
Download The PPT/PDF document "Where are we and which way forward?" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Where are we and which way forward?
Isabelle Ramdoo
12 November 2013, Helsinski
Economic Partnership Agreements
Slide2Setting the scene
Some key
factsWhere are we now? Some figures and the
state of play of the negotiationsChallenges aheadWhat are the risks?Which way forward?Structure of presentationECDPMPage 2
Slide3Prior to 2008:
Lome to Cotonou Preferences: unilateral, non-reciprocal preferential market access BUT not compatible with WTO
Difficult, uncertain and costly WTO waivers between 2000-07Art 36
Cotonou Agreement: parties committed to start EPA negotiation to address WTO compatibilitySince 2008 – Trade outside of Cotonou agreement. EPAs are stand-alone agreements;However: many unfinished negotiations – to avoid trade disruption, EC Reg. 1528/2007 – provisional application of EPAs for countries that had at least initialed an EPA (although interim)Deadline to finalise all unfinished business: 1st October 20141. Setting the scene: Key milestonesECDPMPage 3
Slide4Stage I 09/2002 – 09/2003:
All ACP negotiations
Stage II 10/2003 – 2007: Regional negotiationsWest Africa: 16 countries (ECOWAS + Mauritania)Central Africa: 8 countriesEast and Southern Africa: 11 countries (COMESA minus) East African Community: 5 countries (full region)Southern Africa – 6 countries + SA joined later (SADC minus)Caribbean region – 15 countriesPacific: Pacific Forum – 14 countries
Since then:
Only 1 full EPA (CARIFORUM) signed in 2008;
1 African region ESA (4 countries) signed in 2009 – all countries ratified.
The
remaining 17 countries
(
have
agreements that are legally
challenging
Africa: CA (Cameroun signed in 2009, not ratified)West Africa: Ivory Coast and Ghana
2. Refresher: Key facts
ECDPM
Page
4
Slide53.a Where are we now?
ECDPM
Page 5
Slide63.b Countries
concerned
by deadline and regime applied in 2014
ECDPM
Page
6
Slide7Source: Bartels L &
Goodison P (2011): EU Proposal to end preferences for 18 African and Pacific States : An Assessment – Trade Hot Topics, Commonwealth Secretariat – Figures are from 2009
3.c Who
will be affected and by how much?Biggest losers: Fiji (97.4% exports) Swaziland (96.3%)Both sugar exporters (€339/tonne)Kenya and Namibia also likely to suffer
Page
7
ECDPM
Slide8ECOWAS
:
2 main issuesMarket access offer Development chapter (PAPED – additional resources)
Other contentious issues: MFN Clause; EU Domestic subsidies and support to agriculture; Obligations to negotiate FTAs with countries where EU has CU (Turkey, San Marino, Andorra)2. EAC: Mainly contentious issuesExport taxes; MFN, RoO; Agriculture; non-execution clause (ICC/Kenya)3. State of Play of current negotiationsPage 8ECDPM
Slide93. SADC:
Export taxes, MFN
South Africa/SACU market access both on agriculture and NAMA; RoO
cumulation with SA; infant/distress industries; 4. Central Africa:Slow negotiations. Key remaining issues include MA offer; MFN, Export taxes development5. Pacific:Recently agreed to freeze negotiations because of fisheries6. ESA: 1 outstanding issue: customs cooperation agreement but not an issue with deadlineECDPMPage 9
Slide10Deadline
1st
Oct. 2014So far, on contention issues, little flexibility on both sides
Timeline towards deadline: given pace of negotiations, even if negotiations are completed there might be problems with implementationRisk of failure: Some countries might be left without preferences; likely implications for regional integration (Kenya? Ivory Coast? Cameroun? Swaziland?)4. Challenges aheadECDPMPage 10
Slide11If agreements
are concluded:
Timeline is unrealistic Risk of trade disruption pending ratification: economically challenging and politically unacceptableIf trade talk
collapse: some countries may sign for fear of market disruption;big risk for regional (dis)integration; multiple trade regimes applicable to exports to EU with negative impacts on RIDiplomatic and political challenges : EU-Africa Summit – risk of derailing strategic discussions; mistrust at level of countries/regions; More broadly: geostrategic implications – partners might turn elsewhere5. Risks aheadECDPMPage 11
Slide1210 years on, all technical possibilities have been explored; but yet no agreement
Becoming evident that EPA has negative impact on the overall Europe-Africa relationship;
Increasingly urgent to promote positive and constructive atmosphere to maintain the broader strategic relations between Europe and AfricaNeeds pragmatic and realistic solutions on both
sides: outcome most likely to be resolved at political levelImportant to weigh the political cost of a possible failure/ undesirable outcome within the broader EU-Africa relationship;6. Which way forward?ECDPMPage 12
Slide13Best way is to prepare for the worst
! But are we prepared for a failure? What “extra-mile” are we ready to go
or can we afford to go? Prepare for
“smooth landing” if/when negotiations fail: agree to disagree and anticipate how to continue to engage constructively should that happen. ECDPMPage 13
Slide14Thank you
www.ecdpm.org
Isabelle Ramdoo (
ir@ecdpm.org)Page 14