PPT-Uncertainty in climate change

Andrew Levan For fans of probability confidence intervals and margins of error climate change is a dream come true For everyone else the fact that uncertainty inherent in any complex area of science has gradually become one of climate changes defining features is a constant headache Because uncertainty real or manufactured is a wellrehearsed reason for inaction. G.S. Karlovits, J.C. Adam, Washington State University. 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA. Outline. Climate change and uncertainty in the Pacific Northwest. Data, model and methods. Climate data. C. limate . Change . James . Painter, Reuters Institute, Oxford . University. j. ames.painter@politics.ox.ac.uk. Oxford, 8 February 2014. Focus of Talk. The changing media context for climate change communication. Cindy Kolar. Science Advisor, Fisheries Program. USGS – Reston, VA. Drivers of Ecosystem Change. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. . Ecosystems . and Human Well-being: Synthesis.. Island Press, Washington, DC.. for S2D forecasting. EUPORIAS wp31. Nov 2012, Ronald Hutjes. Background. S2D impact prediction. Uncertainty explosion / Skill implosion ??. SST. Weather. (Downscaling). Soil moisture. Plant productivity. Chapter 1: Introduction. Olivia Clifton. Seminar on IPCC AR5 WG1. Columbia University. 01/31/2014. Goals of Chapter 1 of IPCC AR5 WG1 . Focus on the concepts & definitions applied in the discussions of new findings . Energy. Climate. . Change. . Adaptation. Bruce A. McCarl. Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University. mccarl@tamu.edu. , http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl. Climate. Marcia McNutt. Editor-in-Chief. Science . family of Journals. Challenges with scientific uncertainty ...... Public perception that if scientists express uncertainty, they “don’t know they are talking about.”. Rebecca . Saari. Assistant Professor. Civil & Environmental Engineering. Y.F. Mei, E. . Monier. , F. Garcia-Menendez. CMAS Conference. Chapel Hill, NC, October 23, 2016. 2. Connecting Policies to Air Quality Impacts. Seas (CLIMSEA). Helén Andersson, Markus Meier, Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich. RCP8.5. RCP4.5. 2. o. C. Temperature. . change. in the Baltic Sea . Ice. . extent. Modell . Observations. EC-EARTH RCP4.5. . Forest Response . to Climate Change. Climate change overview. Observations. Mechanisms. Uncertainty. Scenarios and models. Perspective. Uncertainty in predictions. Climate change . and . forests. Ed Mathez. American Museum of Natural History. 18 November 2011. 1. Climate change as risk…. case 1: common floods, protected property. case 2: uncommon floods, no protection. Risk determined by:. Flavio Lehner. , Andrew W. Wood, Julie A. . Vano. , David M. Lawrence, . Martyn. P. Clark, Justin S. . Mankin. : . Nature Climate Change, 9, 926–933 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x. APPROACH. forecast of 1 to 4 meters with 2 meters as the most likely outcome. Key decision-makers in the omes so they can determine the robustness of build the residential development, and the maximum it is se Effects of Climate ChangeSupplementary Green Book GuidanceNovember2020ContentsExecutive summary1Chapter 1 Introduction211 The importance of considering climate change312 Key issues to consider when in