CONCERN M r J ogdand O K Department of Environment Sci Deogiri College Aurangabad CLIMATE CHANGE A GLOBAL CONCERN Presented By Jogdand Onkar Kishanrao Dept of EnvSciDCA ID: 1047948
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1. CLIMATE CHANGE : A GLOBAL CONCERNMr. Jogdand O. K.Department of Environment Sci.Deogiri College, Aurangabad
2. CLIMATE CHANGE : A GLOBAL CONCERNPresented ByJogdand Onkar KishanraoDept of Env.Sci,DCA
3. What is Climate?Greek Word ‘Klima ’ – inclination.Definition – “Weather averaged over long period of time”. Climate in narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather”, or more rigorously, as the stastical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousand or millions of years (IPCC).Classical period – 30 years (WMO).Difference between Climate and Weather -Climate is What you expect. -Weather is what you get.Weather – Temperature, rainfall, atmospheric humidity, wind flow etc.How climate change phenomenon is happens?
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5. Green House Gases and their sources A) CO2 :
6. B) CH4 - Paddy fields - Bovine - Flatulence - Bacteria in Bogs - Fossil Fuel Production.
7. C) CFC- Refrigerators and Coolers.
8. D) NO2- Naturally by oceans and rainforests.- Nylon and Nitric Acid Production- Fertilizers in agriculture.What is the Basic Reason for the Environmental Problems ?
9. Natural ResourcesPopulationPopulationNatural Resources
10. Importance of PEnglish MarathiPopulation ParyavaranPollution PruthviProblems PaniPoverty PavanPolitics PaisaPower
11. Nature has given enough for every body's need but not for everybody’s greed.-M. Gandhi
12. Definition – History 100 Years Back.Svnate Arrhensius – 1896 Establishment of IPCC in 1988 by WMO & UNEP.Structure and Function of IPCC - 3 Working Group & 1 Action Group. - More than 2500 Scientist. - To study the impacts of climate change. - Collection and evaluation of scientific, economical, technical and social information on climate change. - To asses the literature on climate change and preparation of report.Roger Revelle – 1950.Global Warming
13. IPCCRepot on Climate Change - First :1990 - Second : 1995 - Third : 2001 - Fourth : 2007.Nobel Prize for Peace to IPCC Group.
14. Why should we be concerned about Global Warming?
15. Impacts of Global WarmingMelting of Polar ice capsIncrease in sea levelImpact on AgricultureImpact on Human HealthSocio-economic impactImpact on ForestImpact on water resources & aquatic ecosystem.Environmental impact
16. Global Scenario of Climate Change A. Current scenarioCO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005.Similarly, the global atmospheric concentration of methane and nitrous oxides, other important GHG’s, has also increased considerably. The increase in GHG’s was 70% between 1970 and 2004. Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature since 1850.The mean earth temperature has changed by 0.74°C during 1906 – 2005.Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
17. Future ProjectionsThe projected temperature increase by the end of this century is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded. It is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation.For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected. Even if all future emissions were stopped now, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. The projected sea level rise by the end of this century is likely to be 0.18 to 0.59 meters.
18. Indian Scenario of Climate Change A. Current scenarioIndian Meteorology Department Pune (MS) - show the same trends for temperature, heat waves, glaciers, droughts and floods, and sea level rise as by the IPCC.Areas of increasing trend in monsoon rainfall are found along the west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and north-west India, and those of decreasing trend over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, north-east India and parts of Gujarat and Kerala (-6 to -8% of normal over 100 years).Surface air temperature for the period 1901 – 2000 indicates a significant warming of 0.4°C for 100 years. The spatial distribution of temperature changes indicated a significant warming trend has been observed along the west coast, central India.
19. B. Future ProjectionsIt is projected that by the end of the 21st century rainfall will increase by 15 – 31%, and the mean annual temperature will increase by 3°C to 6°C. The warming is more pronounced over land areas, with the maximum increase over northern India. The warming is also projected to be relatively greater in winter and post-monsoon seasons.
20. Predictions of Climate ChangeIndustrial revolution is responsible for global warming.Significant role of developed countries.India ranks 5th in 1990 (America, China, Russia, Japan - India) in CO2.India ranks 3rd in 2005 (America, China - India) (Report – Centre for Global Development – Washington ).Significant increase in GHG’s concentration (IPCC – March 2007).After 2050 Temperature in India will increase by 3 – 40C and rainfall also increase but irregular and uneven distribution (Dr. Krishnakumar) YearTemperatureRainfall20201.30 C – 1.70C1 – 3 %20502.10C – 2.90 C2 – 4 %20803.30 C – 4.3o C4 – 10 %
21. Importance of AgricultureIndia is Agrarian Country.Agriculture is a backbone of Indian Economy.More than 60 % population living in Rural area.Source of employment for rural population.Contributes 22 % of GDP (2003 - 2004) & 16.6% (2007).Agriculture provides raw material for industries, food, fodder, fuel, revenue for rural population.
22. Relationship Between Climate and AgricultureIndian agriculture is totally depend on annual rainfall (Rainfed).It is sensitive to alternations in climate change.In India out of rainfall 80% rainfall in June – September.Impact of rainfall on cropping pattern, time, cropping area, cropping seasons (Kharif & Rabbi).Decrease in rainfall leads to stress on water resources followed by draught conditions.Carbon Fertilization Effect (Increase in CO2) for Cereal crops.More than 70 Crore population depends directly on agriculture and its allied sectors.
23. Impact of climate change on AgricultureProbability of 10 – 40% loss in crop production in India with increases in temperature by 2080 – 2100 (IPCC).Increasing climatic variability associated with global warming will, nevertheless, result in considerable seasonal/annual fluctuations in food production. This is likely to have consequences on international food prices and trade and hence our food security.Small changes in temperature and rainfall could have significant effect on quality of cereals, fruits, aromatic, and medicinal plants with resultant implications on their prices and trade.Pathogens and insect populations are strongly dependent upon temperature and humidity. Increases in these parameters will change their population dynamics resulting in yield loss.Climate change is likely to aggravate the heat stress in dairy animals, adversely affecting their productive and reproductive performance. A preliminary estimate indicates that global warming is likely to lead to a loss of 1.6 million tones in milk production in India by 2020.
24. Droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heavy precipitation events, hot extremes, and heat waves are known to negatively impact agricultural production, and farmers’ livelihood.Climate change also responsible to farmers suicides.
25. Impacts on Indian Agriculture –Literature · Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. · Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places.· Lat et al. (1996) – concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields.· Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops. All these studies focused only on agronomic impacts of climate change.
26. Climate Change & Agriculture Sector ofTwo study Reports of World Banki) Dinar et. Al – 1998 ii) Ministry of Environment and Forest – 2008 Dinar et.al ReportThis report includes study of 13 states and 271 districts from India (25 Districts from MH). Study reveals that negative impact of climate change on agriculture production.If temperature will increase by 20C and rainfall by 7% the total agriculture production per hectare expected to increase in 13 districts of Maharashtra. MOEF ReportThis report includes study on cereals crops such as Jawar and Bajra and Sugarcane from AhmedNagar and Nashik districts of Maharashtra.Increase in temperature and rainfall leads to increase in production of Jawar and Bajra crop by 8 – 15 %.However, 30% decrease in Sugarcane production.It is due to increase in temperature stress on moisture content and response of sugarcane to CO2.Small area farmer adoptable for short period, but for long period they need insurance, modern technology, information about market, financial assistance.
27. National Action Plan on Climate ChangeImplementation of energy efficiency measures.Launching sustainable habitats.Effective water resource management.Safeguarding Himalayan glacier.And mountain ecosystem.Enhance ecosystem services.Making agriculture more resilient to climate change.Set up a Strategic Knowledge Mission for focused research in the area.
28. Remedial Measures to Combating Challenges of Climate Change in AgricultureReduction in GHG’s emission from agriculture.Adopt modern technology.Crop variation.Change in Cropping pattern.Management of domesticated animal.Promote to organic fertilizer.Change in cropping timing.Cultivation of crops which are adoptable to temperature.Framework the agricultural policy.Provision of financial assistance / loan.Policy for trade of agricultural products.
29. Enhance energy efficiency in agriculture.To increase the area under biofuel cultivation.Modification in irrigation facility.
30. Mitigation of Climate ChangeAforestationAdoption of community transport systemPromote to use energy efficient equipments
31. Promote to use Renewable Energy Sources
32. Promote to use biofuel
33. Adoption of 3 R Concept
34. Awareness Through Education
35. Organizing Conferences, Seminars, Workshops etc.
36. Awareness through Media – Newspaper, TV, Radio, Cultural programmes.
37. Promote for low consumerism and materialism.Change in Life styleSimple Living High Thinking.Think Globally Act Locally.
38. THINK CLEAN, THINK GREEN! Outer nature is a reflection of Inner nature Inner Harmony is essential for outer Harmony Root of the crisis lies in False identity of Self
39. A Planet-DevastatedA PeacefulPlanet-Choice is OURSWhat We Want ? or
40. Thank you for your kind attention!!!