Quattrone and Tversky - PowerPoint Presentation

Quattrone and Tversky 1998,Slovic 1987 POLI 421, Monday Sept 9, 2019 POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 1

Rational v. Psychological Theories of ChoiceEconomics: Common to assume rationality in that people will by the same product at a lower price if they can, and we can understand a lot of outcomes from decisions by acting “as if” people are rational. They are not stupid, after all. Psychology: This is crazy. People don’t calculate like that.Political science and framing: When is it ok to assume something relatively close to rational, and when do we really need to understand psychology? POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 2

Things to keep in mind about how people actually thinkHow we approach riskDepends on if we are thinking of gaining or losing something.Fully rational: it would not matter. $1 = 0.5*$2, same expected value. Risk averse: You prefer $100 to a 50% chance of gaining $200 (Note: this is the “domain of gains”)Risk seeking is common, however, in the “domain of losses”Many would prefer a 50% chance to lose either nothing or $200 than certainty of losing $100. You might “take your chances” and hope not to lose anything. POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 3

Risk acceptance in the domain of lossRisk aversion in the domain of gainsLosses loom larger than gains…Does that happen in public policy and framing? How to proponents and opponents of new programs manipulate feelings of gain v. loss, and therefore people’s sense of risk-acceptance? Consider:Expansion of medical coverage / “Medicare for all” / other health care reformsClimate change mitigationHow do the two sides manipulate feelings of risk? POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 4

Health Care Reform: urgent need to take a risk to resolve an urgent problem?Or be cautious with “risky schemes” because we have the “best health care system in the world”? Opponents of expansion of medical coverage:“We have the greatest medical system known to human civilization”Proponents of change: It’s a disgrace that xxx millions of Americans don’t have medical careWe manipulate people’s feelings of the need to take a risk for a greater gain, v. the need to “play it safe” to protect something.Note the confusing language about “gains” and “losses”: we are more willing to take a risk if we feel we have something to gain. So down-grading what we have is a good strategy. If we love the status quo, then any change is a “risky scheme”. POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 5

How bad is the status quo?Status quo is catastrophic:Any change is worth the riskStatus quo is really working pretty well: You prefer the certainty of what you know you are going to get compared to a chance to either get less or more(You are in the domain of gains)Note how often people argue not about how good their proposed plan is, but about the relative urgency of “doing something” and how terrible the status quo is. They are manipulating your risk-aversion. POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 6

Reference points, and “equivalence frames”Expected utility theory v. “prospect” theory.Prospect theory says that this issue of gains v. losses will affect your willingness to accept risk. Utility theory says it should not matter. Example on p. 722: People take the safe choice when they compare their choice to worse-off nations. Something to gain, or protect. When facing a possible worse outcome, they are more risk-accepting.Example on p. 723: same outcomes: risky choice more acceptable in domain of losses, when you have something you might lose. POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 7

Losses are more hurtful than gains are helpfulPresenting things as possible losses generates more anxiety…Wed: “Bad is stronger than good” in many areas of thinking POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 8

Equivalence FramesUnemployment rate of 7% ~= employment of 93%93 percent employed just sounds better! POLI 421, Framing Public Policies9

Very low and very high probability eventsIs something with a 99.999% chance of occurring “certain”? People tend to think so.Similarly, people mis-estimate extremely low probabilities, counting them as zero, when they are actually perhaps 0.001. POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 10

Slovic: Perceived risk of various thingsWhy are we over-afraid of nuclear power?Why are we under-afraid of smoking? POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 11

Familiar v. unfamiliar; dread v. mundane risks POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 12

Controllable v. not; Observable v. not POLI 421, Framing Public Policies13

Things that make us over-estimate riskUnknown (invisible, delayed, unfamiliar)Dread (scary!)Uncontrollable (sit on an airplane someone else drives v. drive your car) Inequitable (victims did not deserve it; v. they took a known risk)Catastrophic v. individual consequenceLikely to affect future generations v. only oneself Voluntary v. involuntaryPOLI 421, Framing Public Policies 14

Do we see this in politics?What fears are manipulated?Odds of violent crime?Odds of someone on work release will commit a crime?Stranger-attacks v. dangers from loved ones or family members Think of more examples; how do people do this?Why do they manipulate fear? POLI 421, Framing Public Policies 15