Ken Lawlis Supply ChainProject Management Professional Agenda Introduction University of Bath Video Supply Chain Risk Management duration 438 Canadian Professional Logistics Institute ID: 491346
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Slide1
Supply Chain Risk Management
Ken LawlisSupply Chain/Project Management ProfessionalSlide2
Agenda
IntroductionUniversity of Bath Video – Supply Chain Risk Management
(duration 4:38)
Canadian Professional Logistics Institute – Risk and Resilience Conference Threat, Vulnerability, Risk & Resilience – Defined Practical Guide to Risk Management (PwC) Kirov’s Supply Chain Risk Register – OverviewKirov’s Tools for Risk AssessmentFrom Risk to Resilience – Deloitte’s Model for Identifying, Assessing and Mitigating Supply Chain RiskConclusions - Tom Teixeira, Supply Chain Risk in a Global Economy (duration 4:19)Suggested/Further Reading
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INTRO – Biographical Data – Ken Lawlis40 years in Supply Chain Management (Coca-Cola, National Grocers/Loblaws, CSC, PSC, AARLIS Consulting Inc., CIHI
– have returned to private consulting Most of my career has been focussed on Public Safety
Masters candidate in IPIS
–
(sponsored by Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University)PMPMCPM – Masters Certificate in Project ManagementP.Log.Member of: APICS, Canadian Professional Logistics Institute, PMI, Project Management Association of Canada (PMAC), Canadian Public Procurement Council, Canadian Advanced Technology Alliance (CATA) – Cyber Crime Cyber Terrorism Working GroupGraduate Studies in the MA program in Public Policy & AdministrationBA (Hons) Political Science – focus: Economics and International AffairsExecutive training – Queen’s University, Carleton University, the Canadian Professional Logistics Institute, Public Works and Government Services Canada (Procurement, EDP Project Management, Negotiations, Strategic Planning)2015-06-243Slide4
Supply Chain Risk Management Video
https://youtu.be/cq1PL1eo4ZUProfessor Brian Squire, Information, Decision and Operations Group,
Supply Chain Risk Management
– University of Bath – September 6, 2013 – duration 4:38
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National Conference on Supply Chain Risk and ResilienceThe Logistics Institute – April 16,
2015
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National Conference on Supply Chain Risk and ResilienceThe Logistics Institute – April 16, 2015
2015-06-24
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National Conference on Supply Chain Risk and ResilienceThe Logistics Institute – April 16, 2015
2015-06-24
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National Conference on Supply Chain Risk and ResilienceThe Logistics Institute – April 16, 2015
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National Conference on Supply Chain Risk and ResilienceThe Logistics Institute – April 16, 2015
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Presentation MaterialsThe presentation materials from the Canadian Professional Logistics Institute’s April 16, 2015 Conference on Supply Chain Risk & Resilience may be accessed at:
http://www.loginstitute.ca/event-risk-and-resilience-conference.html
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ThreatThe presence of a hazard and an exposure pathway - threats may be natural or human-induced, either accidental or intentional (source:
Federal Emergency Response Plan (2009) – Public Safety Canada)
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VulnerabilityA characteristic or attribute of an asset which renders it susceptible to the effects of an incident. Vulnerability informs both the likelihood and consequences of an incident (source:
Risk Management Guide for Critical Infrastructure Sectors, Public Safety Canada)
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What is Risk?Risk
refers to the uncertainty that surrounds future incidents and outcomes. It is a function of the likelihood and consequences of an incident – the higher likelihood and/or the greater the consequences, the greater the risk (source: TBS
Integrated Risk Management Framework
)2015-06-2413Slide14
Risk Management…is systematically setting the best course of action under uncertainty by identifying, assessing, understanding, acting on and communicating risk issues (source:
TBS Integrated Risk Management Framework)
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ResiliencyResilience is seen as the ability to accommodate abnormal threats and events, be they terrorist attacks, or perturbations from climate change, or natural disasters such as earthquakes or floods, or economic shocks. Most definitions, particularly those involving individuals, communities and
organizations also refer to identifying, assessing and communicating the risk from such threats and events.
http
://
torrensresilience.org/resilience-and-risk2015-06-2415Slide16
Risk & ResiliencyThe traditional definition of risk is a measure that reflects the probability
and the magnitude of an adverse effect. More recently a broader and more balanced definition has been adopted by the risk management community which
recognizes
that individuals and
organizations take risk to achieve potential benefits. Individuals, communities and organizations which are prepared and ready for an abnormal event, tend to be more resilient. Understanding the probability and the magnitude of potential threats enables an organization to make decisions on how best to reduce the probability and/or impact of such threats, to transfer the risk by taking out adequate insurance, or indeed to do nothing and be ready to accept the potential consequences.http://torrensresilience.org/resilience-and-risk2015-06-2416Slide17
Risk MitigationIt
will never be possible to completely remove the probability of a disruptive event. Supply Chain leaders are expected to have processes which aim to identify, analyse and evaluate risks and through
consultation, agree upon
levels of residual and tolerable risk, and to take decisions on mitigating the risks
.If risk mitigation is conducted in a formal and open manner, organizations are much more willing to accept the consequences of a disruptive event as people are then aware that all reasonable action was taken to reduce the probability and/or impact. In such circumstances, businesses/organizations will more readily recover and return to normality. They are more resilient.http://torrensresilience.org/resilience-and-risk2015-06-24
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Simple Graphical Representation of Resilience
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PwC Risk Response Strategies2015-06-24
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Risk Assessment Methodology
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Kirov’s Risk Register Acknowledgement
Krasimir Kirov holds a Master Degree in Industrial Management and is a Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) and member of APICS. He is a certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt and certified in Sales and Operations Planning by the S & Op Institute. His book, entitled:
Supply Chain Risk Management: Minimize Disruptions, Reduce Risk and Make Your Supply Chain Resilient
is a great read. The risk register that follows was provided gratis to those who purchased his book, along with a wide variety of tools to characterize, identify and mitigate SC risk.2015-06-2421Slide22
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
1. Natural DisastersEpidemics
Earthquakes
Tsunamis
VolcanoesWeather disasters (hurricanes, tornados, storms, blizzards, floods, droughts)2015-06-2422Slide23
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
2. AccidentsFiresExplosions
Structural failures
Hazardous spills
2015-06-2423Slide24
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
3. Sabotage, Terrorism, Crime, and WarComputer attacks
Product tampering
Intellectual theft
Physical theftBombingsBiological and chemical weaponsBlockades2015-06-2424Slide25
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
4. Government Compliance and Political UncertaintyTaxes, customs, and other regulations
Compliance issues
Regulatory financial reporting (e.g., Sarbanes-Oxley)
OperationsLogistics / TradeRegulatory Approvals - Marketing Approvals2015-06-2425Slide26
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
4. Government Compliance and Political UncertaintyPublic Health
Environmental requirements
Trade restrictions (e.g., Buy American Act)
Regulatory Audit historyCurrency fluctuationsPolitical unrestBoycotts2015-06-2426Slide27
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
5. Labour Unavailability and Shortage of SkillsAvailabilityQuality
Cost
Unrest
Strikes and slowdowns2015-06-2427Slide28
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
6. Industry-wide (i.e., Market) ChallengesCapacity constraintsUnstable prices
Lack of competition
Entry barriers
Capital requirementsSpecific assets2015-06-2428Slide29
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
6. Industry-wide (i.e., Market) Challenges
Process patents
Shrinking industry
Low supplier profitabilityCertificationCost trendsRecessions/Inflation2015-06-2429Slide30
Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
7. LawsuitsEnvironmentalHealth and safety
Intellectual property
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Kirov’s Risk RegisterExternal, End to End Supply Chain Risks
8. Technological TrendsEmerging technologies (pace/direction)Obsolescence
Other technological uncertainty
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Kirov’s Risk RegisterSupplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers
or Internal Business Unit
1.
Physical and Regulatory Risks
Key Suppliers Located in High Risk AreasMaterial Unavailability/Poor PlanningRaw materialsOther materialsLegal Noncompliance / Ethical practicesLabour practicesSafety practices & performanceEnvironmental practicesHistory & outcomes of lawsuitsTax practices2015-06-2432Slide33
Kirov’s Risk RegisterSupplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers
or Internal Business Unit
1.
Physical and Regulatory Risks
Regulatory NoncomplianceCustoms/tradeSecurity clearance requirementsHistory & outcomes of regulatory auditsRegulatory certification requirements (e.g., Food & Drug Administration, Federal Aviation Administration)Critical disclosure – International Traffic & Arms Regulations2015-06-2433Slide34
Kirov’s Risk Register
Supplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers or Internal Business Unit
2.
Production Problems
CapacityToo little, too much, or diminishingOrder and shipping timesOut of stock (i.e., no/low inventory)Performance history, equipment age & downtime (manufacturing & testing equipment)Repair cycle time2015-06-2434Slide35
Kirov’s Risk Register
Supplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers or Internal Business Unit
2.
Production Problems
Inflexible Production Capabilities (Long setup times)Technological Inadequacies or FailuresIncompatible information systemsSlow adoption of new technology2015-06-2435Slide36
Kirov’s Risk Register
Supplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers or Internal Business Unit
2.
Production Problems
Poor QualityDefects / contamination in manufactured productMislabeling of itemsLack of training or knowledgeLead TimesBacklogsUnresponsiveUnreliableVariable2015-06-2436Slide37
Kirov’s Risk Register
Supplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers or Internal Business Unit
3.
Financial Losses and Premiums
Degree of Competition/ProfitabilityDownstream integration or too much competitionLittle/no competition - sole sourceMergers & AcquisitionsFinancial ViabilityInability to sustain in a downturnBankruptcyWithdrawal from the market2015-06-2437Slide38
Kirov’s Risk Register
Supplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers or Internal Business Unit
4.
Management Risks
Inadequate Risk Management PlanningLack of business continuity plansLack of requirements for supplier's supplier business continuity plansManagement QualityHigh turnoverDishonestyPoor labour relationsPoor metric scorecards2015-06-2438Slide39
Kirov’s Risk RegisterSupplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers
or Internal Business Unit
4.
Management Risks
Substituting inferior or illegal materials/partsFailing to perform required treatments/testsSubmitting inaccurate/false invoicesLack of Continuous ImprovementUnwillingnessCost escalationOpaque processesOpportunistic behavior2015-06-2439Slide40
Kirov’s Risk RegisterSupplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers
or Internal Business Unit
4.
Management
RisksInflation of purchase costsDependence on One or a Few Customer(s)Poor CommunicationInternalExternalTransparency of data & operations2015-06-2440Slide41
Kirov’s Risk Register
Supplier Risks: External, Contract Manufacturers or Internal Business Unit
5.
Upstream Supply Risks
(i.e., Subcontractors and their Subcontractors)Any of the above external/supplier risksLack of visibility into subcontractorsNo or poor relationships with subcontractorsDiminishing sources of supplyTransition “costs” for new suppliers2015-06-2441Slide42
Kirov’s Risk RegisterDistribution Risks/Disruptions:
Inbound or Outbound
1.
Infrastructure Unavailability
RoadsRailsPortsAir capacity/availability2015-06-2442Slide43
Kirov’s Risk RegisterDistribution Risks/Disruptions:
Inbound or Outbound2.
Assets - Lack of Capacity or Accidents
Containers
TrucksRail carsShipsAirplanes2015-06-2443Slide44
Kirov’s Risk RegisterDistribution Risks/Disruptions:
Inbound or Outbound3.
Labor Unrest/Unavailability
Truck drivers
Rail operatorsLongshoremenPilots2015-06-2444Slide45
Kirov’s Risk RegisterDistribution Risks/Disruptions:
Inbound or Outbound4. Cargo Damage/Theft/Tampering
Physical damage
Theft and other security problems
Tracking the damageEnvironmental controls (e.g., temperature, humidity)2015-06-2445Slide46
Kirov’s Risk RegisterDistribution Risks/Disruptions:
Inbound or Outbound5. Warehouse Inadequacies
Lack of capacity
Inaccessibility
DamageEnvironmental controls (e.g., temperature, humidity)Lack of security2015-06-2446Slide47
Kirov’s Risk RegisterDistribution Risks/Disruptions:
Inbound or Outbound6. IT System Inadequacies/Failures
7.
Long, Multi-Party Supply Pipelines
Increased chance of all problems aboveLonger lead time2015-06-2447Slide48
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
1. Operational RiskLoss of Inventory (damage, obsolescence)
Equipment loss, mechanical failures
Process Issues
Process reliabilityProcess robustnessLead time variabilityInflexible Production Capabilities (long set up times, etc.)2015-06-2448Slide49
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
1. Operational RiskCapacity
Too little, too much, or diminishing
Order and shipping times
Out of stock (i.e., no/low inventory)Performance history, equipment age & downtime (manufacturing & testing equipment)Repair cycle time2015-06-2449Slide50
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
1. Operational RiskPoor Quality
Defects in manufactured product
Failure to maintain equipment
Lack of training or knowledgeEnvironmental performance to permits / other2015-06-2450Slide51
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
2. Government Compliance and Political UncertaintyTaxes, customs, and other regulationsCurrency fluctuations
Political unrest
Boycotts
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Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
3. Demand Variability/VolatilityDrawdown of the stockpileExceeding maintenance replacement rateShelf life expiration
Surges exceed production, repair, or distribution
Shortfalls
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Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
4. Personnel Availability/Skills ShortfallsSufficient numberSufficient knowledge, skills, experience
Union contract expiry
High turnover rate
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Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
5. Design UncertaintyChanges to requirementsLack of technical detail
Lack of verification of product
Changes to product configuration
Poor specificationsReliability estimates of componentsAccess to technical dataFailure to meet design milestonesDesign for supply chain (e.g., obsolescence, standardization, and commonality)2015-06-2454Slide55
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
6. Planning FailuresForecast reliability/schedule availability
Planning data accuracy
Global visibility of plans & inventory positions
Competition/bid processAcquisition strategyManufacturability of a designProgram maturitySubcontracting agreements2015-06-2455Slide56
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
7. Financial Uncertainty/LossesFunding availabilityWork scope/plan creep
Knowledge of supplier costs
Strategic risk
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Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
8. Facility Unavailability/Unreliability/ CapacityFacility breakdown
Mechanical failures
Sites located in high risk areas
Adequate capacity2015-06-2457Slide58
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
9. Testing Unavailability / Inferiority / CapacityUnreliable test equipmentOperational test qualifications
Operational test schedule
Integration testing
Transition from first test to mass production2015-06-2458Slide59
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
10. Enterprise Underperformance/Lack of ValueCustomer satisfaction/loyaltyLiability
Cost/profit
Customer demand
UniquenessSubstitutabilitySystems integrationOther application/product value2015-06-2459Slide60
Kirov’s Risk RegisterInternal Enterprise Risks
11. Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) UseContract/supplier management availability and expertiseIn-house SRM expertise
Lack of internal and external communication/coordination
Supplier development and continuous improvement
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Deloitte’s Risk Model
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Video - Conclusion
https://youtu.be/-zIyGpRar24Tom Teixeira,
Supply Chain Risk in a Global Economy
– Willis TV – November 18, 2013 – duration
4:192015-06-2462Slide63
Suggested Reading/Bibliography
APICS. Dictionary 14th Edition, the Essential Supply Chain Reference, Chicago: APICS, 2013.
APICS
.
Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) Learning System, 2012 version, Chicago: APICS, 2012.CACI International Inc. (CACI) and the U.S. Naval Institute. Cyber Threats to National Security: Countering Challenges to the Global Supply Chain, A summary of personal remarks made by participants at the March 2, 2010 symposium.http://asymmetricthreat.net/docs/asymmetric_threat_4_paper.pdf, accessed March 23, 2015.Canada, National Strategy for Critical Infrastructure, Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2009.Carleton University. Welcome to Big Data: Introducing Carleton University’s Institute for Data Science, personal notes and recollections of Ken Lawlis who attended Data Day as a Representative of the CATA Alliance and MIPIS, Data Day was held, April 1, 2015
.Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO), by Dr. Patchin Curtis and Mark Carey, Deloitte & Touche LLP,
Thought Leadership in ERM, Risk Assessment in Practice, COSO: October 2012.
https
://
www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Governance-Risk-Compliance/dttl-grc-riskassessmentinpractice.pdf
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Suggested Reading/BibliographyDeloitte Development LLC.
Supply Chain Resilience: A Risk Intelligent Approach to Managing Global Supply Chains, New York: Deloitte Development LLC, 2012.Department of Homeland Security website,
http://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors
, accessed March 23, 2015.
Findlay, Valarie. Cyber-Threats, Terrorism and the Counter-Terror Model Research Study, University of St. Andrew’s, The Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, vaf2@st-andrews.ac.uk / vfindlay@humanled.com, May 2014. Fernandez, Pascal. Supply Chain Collaboration Maturity - What Difference Does it Make? A presentation to APICS/Supply Chain Council on October 2, 2014.IBM Global Technology Services. IBM Security Services 2014 Cyber Security Intelligence Index: Analysis of Cyber Attack and Incident Data from IBM’s Worldwide Security Operations, Somers, NY: IBM, June 2014.IBM Global Technology Services. Resilience in the Era of Enterprise Cloud Computing: Design Considerations for Forward Thinking Organizations, Somers, NY: IBM, July 2014
.Manners-Bell, John.
Supply Chain Risk: Understanding Emerging Threats to Global Supply Chains, London: Kogan Page Ltd., 2014.
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Suggested Reading/BibliographyISASA.
An Introduction to the Business Model for Information Security, Rolling Meadows, IL: ISACA, 2009.
Kirov
, Krasimir.
Supply Chain Risk Management: Minimize Disruptions, Reduce Risk and Make Your Supply Chain Resilient, self-published, purchased on amazon.ca, April 8, 2014.http:// operationalexcellencetraining.com/ (Operational Excellence Series Book 6) (Kindle Locations 3-7). Kindle Edition.Maleski, Mark, et. al., Cyber Threat Metrics, Sandia Report, SAND2012-2427, Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories, March 2012. http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB424/docs/Cyber-065.pdf , accessed March 23, 2015.
Marchese, Kelly and Jerry O’Dwyer. From Risk to Resilience: Using Analytics and Visualization to Reduce Supply Chain Vulnerability
, Deloitte Review, Issue 14, 2014.
http://dupress.com/articles/dr14-risk-to-resilience
/, accessed March 23, 2015.
MLA Handbook for Writers of Research Papers
, 7th Edition, New York: The Modern Language
Association
of America, 2009.
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Suggested Reading/BibliographyNorman
, Thomas L. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection, Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2010.
Peck, Helen.
Supply Chain Vulnerability, Risk, Robustness & Resilience
, PowerPoint Presentation, a synopsis of Mangan, Lalwani and Butcher’s work published in: Global Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2008.Ponemon Institute. 2014 Cost of Data Breach Study: Global Analysis, Benchmark research sponsored by IBM and independently conducted by Ponemon Institute LLC., Traverse City, MI: 2014.PwC. A Practical Guide to Risk Assessment: How Principles-Based Assessment Enables Organizations to Take the Right Risks, PwC: December 2008.http://www.pwc.com/en_us/us/issues/enterprise-risk-management/assets/risk_assessment_guide.pdf
PwC. From Vulnerable to Valuable: How Integrity Can Transform a Supply Chain – Achieving Operational Excellence Series, PwC : December 2008.http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/supply-chain-management/assets/pwc-sci-112008.pdf
Rice
, James B. and Spayd, Philip W.
Investing in Supply Chain Security: Collateral Benefits
, Washington, DC: IBM Center for the Business of Government, May 2005.
Schuh, Christian., et al.,
Supplier Relationship Management: How to Maximize Vendor Value and Opportunity
, New York: A. T. Kearney Inc., 2014
.
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Suggested Reading/Bibliography
Schuh, Christian. et al., The Purchasing Chessboard: 64 Methods to Reduce Cost and Increase Value with Vendors, New York: A. T. Kearney Inc., 2009 (Kindle Locations 2-4). Kindle Edition.
Telecommunications
Industry Association (TIA).
Securing the Network: Cybersecurity Recommendations for Critical Infrastructure and the Global Supply Chain, Portable Document File (pdf) document on the TIA website, date of publication: July 20, 2012.http://www.tiaonline.org/sites/default/files/pages/TIA%20Cybersecurity%20White%20Paper-Critical%20Infrastructure%20%26%20Global%20Supply%20Chain_0.pdf, accessed March 23, 20152015-06-2467Slide68
Supply Chain Risk Management Videos
https://youtu.be/bbZiGYmTbcw
Emeritus Professor Martin Christopher, Marketing and Logistics,
SCM Key Challenges
– Cranfield University School of Business – duration 8:31https://youtu.be/lTAbPvivDxsPeter Foster, Cyber Breach Response Plans – Willis TV – June 19, 2015 – duration 2:54https://youtu.be/ISrjWW9_O0ISharon Lindstrom, Managing Supply Chain Disruptions: How are Manufacturers Today Viewing Supply Chain Risk – Protiviti Risk and Business Consulting – November 12, 2012 – duration 3:14https://youtu.be/cq1PL1eo4ZUProfessor Brian Squire, Information, Decision and Operations Group,
Supply Chain Risk Management – University of Bath – September 6, 2013 – duration 4:38
https://youtu.be/-zIyGpRar24
Tom Teixeira,
Supply Chain Risk in a Global Economy
– Willis TV – November 18, 2013 – duration 4:19
https://youtu.be/QlZ6TyUaYpw
Professor Richard Wilding,
Supply Chain Risk Reduction
– Cranfield University School of Business – June 16, 2008 - duration 5:57
https://youtu.be/9AbCuAexUgU
Joe Yacura,
Supply Chain: Understanding Risk Factors
– Information Systems Group (ISG) – duration 7:58 for segment on cyber security (play 15:17 to 23:15) – total duration 28:45
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